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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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the ECMWF seems to be giving it colder than the GFS, is that good or bad, I mean in the terms of which chart is better of course, is it just me or does the cold seem to be winning and keeping the warmth at bay as the month goes onPosted Image

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Regarding gavins winter outlook i would certainly pay more attention to him than some of the more outlandish forecasts out there at the moment. Plus would a mild winter really be such a bad thing? The gas companys have all hicked up there prices and alot of elderly or infirmed cant afford there bills. Must admit i have followed gavs weather vids for quiet a while and i would certainly not dismiss it as he is often more on the money with his forecasts than not. But i guess only time will tell. But for my two penny worth i would say i back gavin at this moment in time.

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yes a mild winter would be bad, I don't want a mild winter and majority on here don't

But looking at gavins update it doesnt sound too promising. But guess we just need to wait and see. Although we know hows things can change. 

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But looking at gavins update it doesnt sound too promising. But guess we just need to wait and see. Although we know hows things can change. 

Better to go for a mild winter and get it wrong!

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LOL I love how so many mention Jan onwards yet forget December is potentially a classic month for severe cold especially the second half, check out when most of the UK's very coldest nights were recorded ;)

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But looking at gavins update it doesnt sound too promising. But guess we just need to wait and see. Although we know hows things can change.

Luckily Gavin doesn't control the weather then, I agree with his assessment on the number of factors pointing towards a milder winter but these are only pointers and can be overridden by atmospheric conditions that catch us all out. I think that when Gavin comes to do his LRF he'll go with a mildish start with a +NAO signature but the second half of winter a -NAO evolving and HLB becoming the main talking point. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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LOL I love how so many mention Jan onwards yet forget December is potentially a classic month for severe cold especially the second half, check out when most of the UK's very coldest nights were recorded Posted Image

 

Your link is an email address Eugene

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So what's happening with this cold snap?? will it snow in the central belt??Posted Image

 

I assume you mean Scotland when u say central belt

 

heres the Scottish thread me and all the Scottish gang are in here and its tailored for Scotland so try heading in here and u will find out all you need to know just ask what u want to find out.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78047-scotland-regional-discussion-autumn-2013/page-40

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Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, November 17, 2013 - Do me a favour.
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, November 17, 2013 - Do me a favour.

Winter is winter, it can be dry, mild, cold, wet, snowy, windy etc. There is no such thing as old fashioned, modern or post modern versions of these as far as I'm concerned.Incidentally, modern and old fashioned added in front of "winter" were used decades ago and not recent inventions as have been claimed.

I think we have been here before Kev, for the purposes of weather forums then the term was defined by me nearly 10 years ago, and would even go on to be mentioned on radio and TV such were the phenomenal statistics that the 88-09 period produced.

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The Beijing climate centre model has updated for November and once again we have another model going for a mild one

 

December to February

 

Posted Image

 

Looks wetter than normal for most

 

Posted Image

 

2 more to go now, met office and Jamstec

Edited by Summer Sun
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The Beijing climate centre model has updated for November and once again we have another model going for a mild one

 

December to February

Posted Image

 

Looks wetter than normal for most

 

Posted Image

 

"Another one"? Which are the others? I've just taken a look at the CFS for example and it looks average overall for winter.

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The Beijing climate centre model has updated for November and once again we have another model going for a mild one

 

December to February

 

Posted Image

 

Looks wetter than normal for most

 

Posted Image

 

2 more to go now, met office and Jamstec

Almost the entire NH is a mild winter....

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Almost the entire NH is a mild winter....

It has been on every update which would be nigh on impossible which kind of backs up my view on long range models and forecasts, only good for a bit of fun or the bin, or both.
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"Another one"? Which are the others? I've just taken a look at the CFS for example and it looks average overall for winter.

 

NASA seasonal model, Brazilian Model, Meteorological centre of Russia, IRI and the Beijing model have all gone or stay average or milder than normal in there November updates

 

We are how ever still awaiting this months met office models to update along with Jamstec

Edited by Summer Sun
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 Met office ensemble mean from last month is not as cold as previous months

 

There's a world of difference between 'not as cold as previous months' and mild......and you know this. There's no need to make yourself feel somehow assured of a mild winter by blatantly misrepresenting data.  

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