Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


Recommended Posts

If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

As posted above, November 2009 was very mild, one of the mildest and the wettest on record. However, it did turn quite chilly towards the tail end. The start to December 2009 was also very mild, but it turned cold by the 10th thanks to heights building over the country, the proper cold didn't set in until the 17th. It thereafter remainded very cold through to mid Jan, with a slight warm up during the third week of Jan, but thereafter it stayed mainly cold right through to mid March. A proper cold winter - much more so than winter 10/11 which saw mild weather predominate from early January.

 

Whilst we can and do see very cold weather on occasion during the latter part of November - it is a very tall order to expect very cold weather to predominate thereafter until March - indeed no winter in at least 100 years has delivered such conditions. The last winter to see nearly 3 months of very cold weather was 62/63 which saw a very cold start to December after very cold weather mid month November, but it became milder until christmas.

 

Its easier to maintain the cold theme from mid December onwards through to end of February. Early December is the least likely part of the winter to be cold

 

Some recent winters have been quite unusual in this respect, in that we have seen cold weather at the end of November last through early-mid December, in the case of 2010 right through to christmas. 08/09 saw a cold end to November with cold weather until mid Dec but then a major warm up before christmas. Last year saw a similiar spell of weather, with mild weather returning mid Dec. The ideal scenario is a 2009/10 set up, if this was mid December now, the prospects of a locked in cold period lasting deep into winter would be very high.

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

 

Yep I seem to remember this as well

 

If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

As posted above, November 2009 was very mild, one of the mildest and the wettest on record. However, it did turn quite chilly towards the tail end. The start to December 2009 was also very mild, but it turned cold by the 10th thanks to heights building over the country, the proper cold didn't set in until the 17th. It thereafter remainded very cold through to mid Jan, with a slight warm up during the third week of Jan, but thereafter it stayed mainly cold right through to mid March. A proper cold winter - much more so than winter 10/11 which saw mild weather predominate from early January.

 

Whilst we can and do see very cold weather on occasion during the latter part of November - it is a very tall order to expect very cold weather to predominate thereafter until March - indeed no winter in at least 100 years has delivered such conditions. The last winter to see nearly 3 months of very cold weather was 62/63 which saw a very cold start to December after very cold weather mid month November, but it became milder until christmas.

 

Its easier to maintain the cold theme from mid December onwards through to end of February. Early December is the least likely part of the winter to be cold

 

Some recent winters have been quite unusual in this respect, in that we have seen cold weather at the end of November last through early-mid December, in the case of 2010 right through to christmas. 08/09 saw a cold end to November with cold weather until mid Dec but then a major warm up before christmas. Last year saw a similiar spell of weather, with mild weather returning mid Dec. The ideal scenario is a 2009/10 set up, if this was mid December now, the prospects of a locked in cold period lasting deep into winter would be very high.

 

 

09/10 was freezing from about the 28th of November and kept getting colder......

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep I seem to remember this as well

 

09/10 was freezing from about the 28th of November and kept getting colder......

 

Have to disagree, the cold didn't set in until the weekend of the 12th/13th December.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks very much like the coming cold snap will be exactly that...a cold snap. 

 

All the models now agree that High pressure will become a stubborn feature directly over the UK by the end of the week with the ECM keeping us under the influence of High pressure right the way through until the end of the run. 

 

All the real action is taking place around us. 

 

However, I have noticed a growing trend for cold air to filter into much of Eastern Europe (finally) and if this does indeed come to pass AND if we are still sitting under High pressure then, in my opinion the chances of getting something much colder and longer lasting as we enter December increases. 

 

So although this first bite at the cherry may be a short lived affair with the UK always on the boundary line between the cold air and the less cold air, the pattern has now changing and there is a fairly lengthy window of opportunity for things to go the way many of us on here want. but which way will it go ??

Edited by EML Network
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Some Awesome Snow in cairngorms..Highlands are one of the most beautiful places on earth when it snows..Pics of few days back from Skihead forum:

 

Posted ImageDSC_1612.jpg

Posted ImageDSC_1625.jpg

Posted ImageDSC_1632.jpg

Posted ImageDSC_1644.jpg

Posted ImageDSC_1646.jpg

Great pics and I wholeheartedly agree with you, there's no finer place on earth than the highlands and it's people.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest long term met office update now suggests high pressure will tend to transfer southwards which suggests northern blocking won't last too long

 

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Dec 2013 to Monday 16 Dec 2013:

 

Current indications are that high pressure will tend to transfer southwards, gradually bringing more unsettled conditions to the north of the UK. This suggests that southern and eastern parts may have more settled conditions, with drier weather and an increased risk of overnight frosts. In terms of temperature, it is likely to remain on the colder side of normal in the south but there are signs of a slight recovery nearer to normal by the middle of December.

 

Issued at: 1015 on Sun 17 Nov 2013

 

Valid from: 1800 on Mon 18 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 18 Nov 2013

 

Wintry showers will spread south on Monday evening, and with temperatures falling, roads are likely to turn icy in places. Sleet and snow showers may be heavy at times, particularly over the Western Highlands. Any snow cover will be patchy over low lying areas, with sleet or rain more likely near coasts. Snow will settle more readily on hills, and there may as much as 10 cm over the higher ground of the Western Highlands. The public should be aware of these wintry hazards and the potential for difficult driving conditions.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

The first cold plunge of the season will bring air which has originated over the Canadian arctic south over the area. This air mass will contain frequent showers, which will fall as snow over hills, and at times to low levels, especially in heavier bursts. Accumulations will be mainly over vegetated surfaces, though cold rain or melting snow will chill road surfaces rapidly leading to a risk of icy stretches.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1384732800&regionName=uk

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest long term met office update now suggests high pressure will tend to transfer southwards which suggests northern blocking won't last too long

 

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Dec 2013 to Monday 16 Dec 2013:

 

Current indications are that high pressure will tend to transfer southwards, gradually bringing more unsettled conditions to the north of the UK. This suggests that southern and eastern parts may have more settled conditions, with drier weather and an increased risk of overnight frosts. In terms of temperature, it is likely to remain on the colder side of normal in the south but there are signs of a slight recovery nearer to normal by the middle of December.

 

Issued at: 1015 on Sun 17 Nov 2013

 

Valid from: 1800 on Mon 18 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 18 Nov 2013

 

Wintry showers will spread south on Monday evening, and with temperatures falling, roads are likely to turn icy in places. Sleet and snow showers may be heavy at times, particularly over the Western Highlands. Any snow cover will be patchy over low lying areas, with sleet or rain more likely near coasts. Snow will settle more readily on hills, and there may as much as 10 cm over the higher ground of the Western Highlands. The public should be aware of these wintry hazards and the potential for difficult driving conditions.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

The first cold plunge of the season will bring air which has originated over the Canadian arctic south over the area. This air mass will contain frequent showers, which will fall as snow over hills, and at times to low levels, especially in heavier bursts. Accumulations will be mainly over vegetated surfaces, though cold rain or melting snow will chill road surfaces rapidly leading to a risk of icy stretches.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1384732800&regionName=uk

Over a fortnight is quite long SS, this is no cold snap of a day or two.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The beebs week ahead forecast has a very realistic take on things unlike certain newspapers

 

Limited snow away from high ground (200 meters plus)

 

Rain mid week possibly snow on the leading edge before turning back to rain

 

Temperatures ranging from 2c to 9c on Tuesday and 5c to 9c for the rest of the week

 

High pressure building by Friday

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to post
Share on other sites

6th and final winter round up video from Gavin P, at this sage he's going for a milder winter with less blocking not the final call though next week will have the final model round up before he releases the final forecast on Sunday 1st December but for now he's going for a milder one

 

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to post
Share on other sites

6th and final winter round up video from Gavin P, at this sage he's going for a milder winter with less blocking not the final call though next week will have the final model round up before he releases the final forecast on Sunday 1st December but for now he's going for a milder one 

Everything is going against a cold winter....but the colder snap ahead wasn't predicted and goes against all mild signals...so this could be the case for the theme for this winter: a mild outlook but cold Synoptics rule the roost.... overall a forecasters nightmare
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything is going against a cold winter....but the colder snap ahead wasn't predicted and goes against all mild signals...so this could be the case for the theme for this winter: a mild outlook but cold Synoptics rule the roost.... overall a forecasters nightmare

Indeed John, the upcoming cold spell came completely out of the blue and caught all the pros out. Somethings is afoot within our atmosphere which causing untold problems for forecasters and long range predictions. Mind you I think seaweed is as good a forecasting tool for the longer range stuff than anything else I've seen.Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I just find it odd that this cold spell came out of the blue and then suddenly enveloped into a watered down version. It just kind of seems a bit weird to me, number 1 for it to come out of nowhere and number 2 to almost disappear again. I'm thinking it might be a signal for December.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed John, the upcoming cold spell came completely out of the blue and caught all the pros out. Somethings is afoot within our atmosphere which causing untold problems for forecasters and long range predictions. Mind you I think seaweed is as good a forecasting tool for the longer range stuff than anything else I've seen.Posted Image

So many conflicting views and opinions this winter, and that's without the likes of Madden and Powell Posted Image

We can't seen to get close to accurately predicting 5 days out, let alone any further and has seemed to be the case since the end of the summer really. I think the model discussion thread could be renamed the asylum before the winter is done and dusted.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So many conflicting views and opinions this winter, and that's without the likes of Madden and Powell Posted Image

We can't seen to get close to accurately predicting 5 days out, let alone any further and has seemed to be the case since the end of the summer really. I think the model discussion thread could be renamed the asylum before the winter is done and dusted.

Maybe a new era of forecasting is needed for the new post even larger teapot.... Edited by John Badrick
Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe a new era of forecasting is needed for the new post even larger teapot....

Why will it not allow me to write post even larger teapot

Why will it not allow me to write post even larger teapot

POST MODERN Edited by John Badrick
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...