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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    NASA HIGH RES has a front of snow moving through in its 0z run which makes it down into England

     

    post-18233-0-21913100-1384613992_thumb.ppost-18233-0-88197600-1384613992_thumb.ppost-18233-0-80547600-1384613993_thumb.ppost-18233-0-39892700-1384613994_thumb.ppost-18233-0-70786500-1384613995_thumb.ppost-18233-0-28472100-1384613996_thumb.ppost-18233-0-75039500-1384613996_thumb.ppost-18233-0-25862000-1384613997_thumb.ppost-18233-0-25152200-1384614006_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Maybe they are just covering their backs. Or maybe Gavin is right and the sea temps will erode the cold, because it is still 11.8c at Castlerock.

     

    I am just basing my opinion on what normally happens and usually with -8c uppers we readily see snow right down to the beach so thats why I was surprised at them forecasting rain (not even sleet) seven miles inland (and at 50m)

    It is a really bad idea of them to forecast rain anyhow because it probably will snow and then people are going to be shocked when its not raining which is not on. I think they've done this before and I remember people ranting about how it was snowing when they forecast rain.

     

    hi sm

    did you try my suggestion?

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  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    don't know if this has been added its the video from yesterday from gavsweathervids and showing a few good updates for December

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5hUYF_aNw#t=597

     

    and todays video for the week ahead

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLOgSaFlqX0#t=408

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

    Well number 1 I thought it would be far colder than 5c, maybe 2c? Then I thought that we would see a window of heavy dry snow from 9pm Monday to 6pm Tuesday based on the current gfs run. 

     

    I don't think you will see temps as low as that, winds are too West of North. And any snow will be of the wet variety.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    don't know if this has been added its the video from yesterday from gavsweathervids and showing a few good updates for December

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5hUYF_aNw#t=597

     

    and todays video for the week ahead

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLOgSaFlqX0#t=408

     

    A slight concern with that outlook for me is that it reminds me slightly of November/December 1988?  We had some cold weather in November but we all know what happened as we went through December!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Well short term UKMO has certainly delivered some excitement this afternoon for a cold weather friends!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Well short term UKMO has certainly delivered some excitement this afternoon for a cold weather friends!I

    It was very grim at yesterday.But look at it now..there is hope

     

    Models change day to day.all fun.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    right usually not looking at GFS too much as due to last year don't rate it too highly but it has gave us a peek at what we will need if we see heights push toward Scandinavia and even though it doesn't come off right in the run it would have potential if this is the road we went down so I have done a little paint

     

    first look toward the black arrow to the bottom right and notice we have a LP that stops the highs from linking up(we want to see this) as you can then see from the red arrows this allows the cold air into western Russia and Europe which would cool things down considerably.

     

    the rest is what I would like to see after with the yellow arrow on the low pressure over Greenland which we would want to ride over the high taking the PV with it sinking it into Europe and western Russia and hopefully this would then open up Greenland for either high pressure to get an attempt at moving into Greenland or to our north.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Well short term UKMO has certainly delivered some excitement this afternoon for a cold weather friends!

     

    yes a little excitement but if you look at my last post we would need something to separate the highs we don't have this in the UKMO so it would kill the 850's

     

    post-18233-0-00486500-1384621153_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    another very snowy saturday in Calgary that 4 weekends in a row now

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    Don't know where to post this but given the predictions months ahead Carl Sagan quoted in dig at long range forecasters yesterday! (from 1:13)

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvB-i3t7vsY

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands

    After Gavin aka Summer Sun was caught at work smashing his old late 90's style desktop, footage has emerged of him smashing his new laptop after seeing tonights UKMO.

     

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1ZdrNOaOWE&feature=player_detailpage

    Edited by Eugene
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Perturbation 2 has a Dec 17th 2010 style Northerly although a tad far East in comparison.

     

    Posted Image

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    another very snowy saturday in Calgary that 4 weekends in a row now

     

    ooohh you tease...!!! Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    So how are the charts looking now? Good or bad for cold lovers? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    So how are the charts looking now? Good or bad for cold lovers? 

     

    Well Tuesday and Wednesday continues to look to coldest period when snow could fall especially on higher ground

     

    see this video for more info - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24972437

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    26260% chance of snow

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image

     

    Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire (850ft/260m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow !
  • Location: Derbyshire (850ft/260m ASL)

    Another winter visitor doing the annual sign-in....:wave:

     

    I live on the edge of the Derbyshire Peak District, about 850ft up.

    I have a 40 mile comute across the Peak District to work in Stockport, about half of my journey being over 1000ft, peaking at either 1450 or 1650ft depending which route I take. I usualy start off around 6am when it's still nice and cold.

     

    I monitor the level of activity on here for my signal to switch to winter tyres - and they've gone on this weekend Posted Image

     

    Not quite sure what the concensus is yet for the week ahead, I'm suspecting some decent frosts, and some falling snow on higher parts of the journey, but little settling.

     

    Does that sound about right ?

     

    I'm settling in for the winter ride on here anyway. I've learnt my lesson over the last 2-3 winters not to get too excited - been several occasions when I've told my work colleagues about impending snowmageddon, only to find the models go boom a day or two before...

     

    Anyway, I enjoy reading the posts on here, a lot of it is over my head, but I get the gist. Keep it up!

    Edited by muddymickey
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    My gut feeling tells me that it will be very cold on Tuesday, Wed, Thursday and stay cold but not as cold through next weekend, after that I think temps will rise slightly until around the 27th and from then on we will see some proper cold with blocking develop. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

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  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

    Certainly not in November which was mild and very wet. December 2009 was chilly though with some significant falls across the country and a widespread white Christmas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
    Posted · Hidden by UV-RAY, November 17, 2013 - I can't alter some of the wording
    Hidden by UV-RAY, November 17, 2013 - I can't alter some of the wording

    You are the last person I would listen to.

    To be fair to Ian he makes a valid point also he may have had a theory regarding modern you know what, but he' s still damn good at making forecasts in the short medium term.
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