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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    From Summer Sun:

     

    The latest update from NASA is in it continues to go for an average or slightly above average winter

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

     

    I dont buy that image. It has most of the northern hemisphere in the above average category and that looks plain wrong. No science to my statement here other than a gut disbelief at the distribution of all that yellow.

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    From Summer Sun:

     

    The latest update from NASA is in it continues to go for an average or slightly above average winter

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

     

    I dont buy that image. It has most of the northern hemisphere in the above average category and that looks plain wrong. No science to my statement here other than a gut disbelief at the distribution of all that yellow.

    Indeed and more so looks highly unlikely to evolve as it would require a complete change in the way we understand winters in the NH overall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Not sure I'm buying into the CFS V2 9 month runs at present, since more high level blocking has been shown for next week and into early December the model now has 'flipped' into zonal conditions for January on quite a regular basis whilst up to the last week it has been forecasting blocked conditions particularly early to mid-month. Up to a week or so ago December was shown to be a largely zonal month.

    Ok this model was good for March and showed Blocking to our north a month or so in advance but has it been that accurate before or since?

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    saw this on twitter just goes to show how far the ECM is from its ensembles 

     

    Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 10m

    ECMWF 10-day HRES model dumped foot of snow all over OKC. Not many ensembles at all agree

     

    post-18233-0-71601500-1384555425_thumb.p

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin

    will there even b rain in dublin or just cold and try conditions 

    Most likely or Hail if we are lucky. There should be frosts of some shape or form.Depends on the models. They wobbled a bit.  tomorrows output will be interestingPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    does anyone know how I make charts do a slide show when posted in here

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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    I guess all we can now I hope/pray for positive updates in the strat because if not then really do not see much point in coming for the next month or so (if you're a coldie).

    Jeez. I think even Chionomaniac, who I've worked out, in the last couple of years, is probably the most knowledgeable cold weather poster on this site, wouldn't write off (even early) December at this point!
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Jeez. I think even Chionomaniac, who I've worked out, in the last couple of years, is probably the most knowledgeable cold weather poster on this site, wouldn't write off (even early) December at this point!

     

    I agree with you in the main - ie - that we shouldn't write off anything beyond 2 weeks but there is a difference between writing off and taking an educated or in my case ' half educated' punt on where the opening gambits of winter are going to take us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    I have noticed that many of the seasonal models are flipping to a zonal mild winter from a more blocked pattern. I wonder what they are picking up on. The JMA, CFS and the Korean LR are now trending there and the latest EC three month, from Matt Hugo:

    "Nov update of the EC seasonal model has shifted from recent months. Now indicates a +NAO pattern and a mild/zonal winter. #WeShallSee"

    Not gonna write winter off but not a good trend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    I agree with you in the main - ie - that we shouldn't write off anything beyond 2 weeks but there is a difference between writing off and taking an educated or in my case ' half educated' punt on where the opening gambits of winter are going to take us.

    Agree re. educated guess. Tbh the vast majority of winters offer nothing more wintry than frost, fog and strong winds before mid December, for my area. Posted Image

    I just commented because of the vexed nature of the posting I responded to. For snow aficionados, I could understand the posting being made at the end of January, when two weeks further would mean mid Feb and the lying snow possibilities by then obviously reducing, but in mid November?

    Edited by Steve C
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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    I have noticed that many of the seasonal models are flipping to a zonal mild winter from a more blocked pattern. I wonder what they are picking up on. The JMA, CFS and the Korean LR are now trending there and the latest EC three month, from Matt Hugo:

    "Nov update of the EC seasonal model has shifted from recent months. Now indicates a +NAO pattern and a mild/zonal winter. #WeShallSee"

    Not gonna write winter off but not a good trend.

    If that's the case, then roll on Spring! I like snow, but if it doesn't happen, I really don't like the dark and cold Winter season. Posted Image
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I have noticed that many of the seasonal models are flipping to a zonal mild winter from a more blocked pattern. I wonder what they are picking up on. The JMA, CFS and the Korean LR are now trending there and the latest EC three month, from Matt Hugo:"Nov update of the EC seasonal model has shifted from recent months. Now indicates a +NAO pattern and a mild/zonal winter. #WeShallSee"Not gonna write winter off but not a good trend.

    You would think that if all the lr models are pointing one way then to achieve something else would be odd indeed. Of course we will see the truth but to be chasing cold charts in week 2 after several years of seeing them verify will be frustrating indeed. I remember well model watching in those winters in the middle of the last decade and a northerly toppler was as good as it generally got!
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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

    I have noticed that many of the seasonal models are flipping to a zonal mild winter from a more blocked pattern. I wonder what they are picking up on. The JMA, CFS and the Korean LR are now trending there and the latest EC three month, from Matt Hugo:"Nov update of the EC seasonal model has shifted from recent months. Now indicates a +NAO pattern and a mild/zonal winter. #WeShallSee"Not gonna write winter off but not a good trend.

     

    If they weren't right before when they were suggesting a more blocked pattern, why would they be more right now? Personally I think that beyond 2 weeks we are pretty clueless about what may happen, and even then we only get the most basic hints of the pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    If they weren't right before when they were suggesting a more blocked pattern, why would they be more right now? Personally I think that beyond 2 weeks we are pretty clueless about what may happen, and even then we only get the most basic hints of the pattern.

    Indeed as they could easily flip back to cold towards the end of this month, they are a waste of bandwidth IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    So the EC seasonal model is going for a mild and wet winter the second month in a row its going for this after backing tracking to UKMO's ensemble mean last month

     

    Still awaiting Jamstec and the met office updates for the final time before winter arrives they should both be due any day now, followed by the Beijing climate centre around the 21st or 22nd

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

    mat hugo tweeted about that earlier but he also said, It's certainly worth taking note, but just like any long range model, it can easily be wrong. Sudden change looks odd

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Weather online's month ahead forecast, becoming colder but hints of milder air edging in to the south just before Christmas

     

    Valid from 15/11 to 15/12 2013
    Becoming colder

    Issued: Friday 15th November 2013
    Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

     

    Temperatures falling with frost, rain, sleet & snow

    After a generally mild autumn season so far the weather looks set to turn significantly colder during the coming week. Indications are that the cold weather may well last into the early part of December. Scotland and Ireland tend to see the best of any sunshine overall, but most frosts here too. Rain, sleet and possibly snow cannot be ruled out at any time, especially over the hills.

    *......22/11/13*

     

    A change in weather through the coming week as colder conditions reach all places. Snow showers are likely over high ground from Monday, these spreading south into Tuesday. More unsettled through the middle of the week and staying cold with low pressure close by. Through Thursday the winds turn more northeasterly and these could be strong in the south. Cloud and some drizzle or light rain through more eastern and southern areas. Drier to the west and north with sunny spells from Thursday, but cold here with sharper overnight frosts.

    *23/11/13 to 29/11/13*

     

    Indications are that this week is likely to be remaining cold. Low pressure is expected to be situated to the south of the country, with high pressure to the north. The resulting northeasterly flow will be bringing cold weather to all. Cloud and outbreaks of rain in more eastern and southern areas, this turning to snow over the hills at times. The sharpest frosts, yet driest and sunniest of the weather again reserved for Scotland and Ireland, especially away from eastern coasts.

    *30/11/13......6/12/13*

     

    The cold weather is expected to persist into the early part of December. Lower pressure will again be to the south of the country to start the week, with high pressure to the north. This brings the threat of some cloud, rain and drizzle with the chance of sleet and some wet snow in more eastern and southern areas at first. Frosty but brighter in Scotland and Ireland. As the week progresses low pressure slips eastwards with high pressure building to the west. This turns the winds to the north or northwest and so it remains cold. There will be an increasing tendency for snow showers to be affecting windward coasts and hills, with the south then becoming sunniest.

    *7/12/13......13/12/13*

     

    The area of high pressure looks set to build back through western and northern areas during the week. As this happens the cold air remains bringing the highest threat of showers, some of sleet and snow, to more northern and eastern areas, with the west again turning brighter.

    *14/12/13......20/12/13*

     

    Hints of milder weather edging into the south through this period, although northern parts remains cold. There is the risk of some wintry weather on the boundary of these two airmasses, probably over northern England and southern Scotland.

    Simon & Capn Bob

     

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131115

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

    one thing I have noticed about people on here, is that one moment your saying this and the next your saying that, for example

     

    1. when it comes to all the models, one moment your saying they are wrong when they say its going to be cold, and when they say its going to be warm they are right. I think its time people made up their minds if they believe in the models at all, not just when it suits them. seriously anything an further than 5 days max is useless, but yet some people are looking at 3 months awayPosted Image

     

    2. when people slag off  certain papers and forecasters (and I am no fan either), and say they are scaremongering etc, but when the Met office says something then its got to be right and yet they have a terrible record for forecasting when its any further than 3 days out. Posted Image

     

    all I am saying is that to many people seem to sit on the fence on here, and whatever way the weather goes they will be able to say, I WAS RIGHT,

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Weather online's month ahead forecast, becoming colder but hints of milder air edging in to the south just before Christmas Valid from 15/11 to 15/12 2013Becoming colderIssued: Friday 15th November 2013Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob  Temperatures falling with frost, rain, sleet & snowAfter a generally mild autumn season so far the weather looks set to turn significantly colder during the coming week. Indications are that the cold weather may well last into the early part of December. Scotland and Ireland tend to see the best of any sunshine overall, but most frosts here too. Rain, sleet and possibly snow cannot be ruled out at any time, especially over the hills.*......22/11/13* A change in weather through the coming week as colder conditions reach all places. Snow showers are likely over high ground from Monday, these spreading south into Tuesday. More unsettled through the middle of the week and staying cold with low pressure close by. Through Thursday the winds turn more northeasterly and these could be strong in the south. Cloud and some drizzle or light rain through more eastern and southern areas. Drier to the west and north with sunny spells from Thursday, but cold here with sharper overnight frosts.*23/11/13 to 29/11/13* Indications are that this week is likely to be remaining cold. Low pressure is expected to be situated to the south of the country, with high pressure to the north. The resulting northeasterly flow will be bringing cold weather to all. Cloud and outbreaks of rain in more eastern and southern areas, this turning to snow over the hills at times. The sharpest frosts, yet driest and sunniest of the weather again reserved for Scotland and Ireland, especially away from eastern coasts.*30/11/13......6/12/13* The cold weather is expected to persist into the early part of December. Lower pressure will again be to the south of the country to start the week, with high pressure to the north. This brings the threat of some cloud, rain and drizzle with the chance of sleet and some wet snow in more eastern and southern areas at first. Frosty but brighter in Scotland and Ireland. As the week progresses low pressure slips eastwards with high pressure building to the west. This turns the winds to the north or northwest and so it remains cold. There will be an increasing tendency for snow showers to be affecting windward coasts and hills, with the south then becoming sunniest.*7/12/13......13/12/13*  The area of high pressure looks set to build back through western and northern areas during the week. As this happens the cold air remains bringing the highest threat of showers, some of sleet and snow, to more northern and eastern areas, with the west again turning brighter.*14/12/13......20/12/13*  Hints of milder weather edging into the south through this period, although northern parts remains cold. There is the risk of some wintry weather on the boundary of these two airmasses, probably over northern England and southern Scotland.Simon & Capn Bob http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131115

    Sounds great but the problem I have with their monthly forecasts are, they are always wrong!
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    Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

    one thing I have noticed about people on here, is that one moment your saying this and the next your saying that,

    Although I don't disagree with the fact that people on here change their mind like the weather (see what I did there), one thing you need to realise is the models are better at handling as some call it "mild westerlies" because that is the default weather for our country. They are more likely to be right if that is what is constantly being shown than a raging beast from the east.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

    one thing I have noticed about people on here, is that one moment your saying this and the next your saying that, for example

     

    1. when it comes to all the models, one moment your saying they are wrong when they say its going to be cold, and when they say its going to be warm they are right. I think its time people made up their minds if they believe in the models at all, not just when it suits them. seriously anything an further than 5 days max is useless, but yet some people are looking at 3 months awayPosted Image

     

    2. when people slag off  certain papers and forecasters (and I am no fan either), and say they are scaremongering etc, but when the Met office says something then its got to be right and yet they have a terrible record for forecasting when its any further than 3 days out. Posted Image

     

    all I am saying is that to many people seem to sit on the fence on here, and whatever way the weather goes they will be able to say, I WAS RIGHT,

    Disagree with your point about the met office imo the met office do a fantastic job and they certainly do not have a terrible record with things further than 3 days out

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Disagree with your point about the met office imo the met office do a fantastic job and they certainly do not have a terrible record with things further than 3 days out

    The MetO are the best in the business when it comes down to the 7-10 day range, thereafter nobody can predict with any degree of accuracy.
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    Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

    Disagree with your point about the met office imo the met office do a fantastic job and they certainly do not have a terrible record with things further than 3 days out

    well that's me told how can I ague with such a comeback as that, that is sarcasm if you didn't noticePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

    back to the weather, and this is just my personal view, and with NO SCIENTIFIC EVEIDANCE, I believe in my heart, and yes I am a coldie lover that this winter will be very cold, with heavy snow, and that's for the whole of the winter period, not just certain days, weeks, or months.

     

    At least all the above is just what I am wishing forPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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