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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

    MetO are going for a mild November,December and January,Posted Image in their recent update

    And I'm going for pigs that can fly in the next 10 years? Do you believe my forecast
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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    MetO are going for a mild November,December and January,Posted Image in their recent update

     

    Thing is though, you can still get spells of cold weather & snow in an overall milder than average winter. I wouldn't get downbeat - another month of autumn to go yet!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    much prefer the look of the UKMO at 144h compared to the GFS

     

    post-18233-0-82953300-1383158728_thumb.gpost-18233-0-89568500-1383158693_thumb.p

     

    in these charts I have circled the area of interest if you note on the GFS there is LP system over America/Canada where there isn't one on the UKMO

     

    post-18233-0-61383500-1383158714_thumb.gpost-18233-0-83327600-1383158684_thumb.p

     

    now if we roll on in the GFS u can see the LP system where the arrow points and it flattens out the high pressure and kills it getting into Greenland where as on the UKMO we would have better chances of the high pressure affecting the Greenland area.

     

    post-18233-0-68361200-1383158702_thumb.p

     

    will wait and see what the ECM brings us

     

    and wouldn't u know it the ECM gives us a half way house between the UKMO and GFS but that's justmodels for you lol.

     

    heres all three side by side GFS,ECM and UKMO

     

    post-18233-0-83327600-1383158684_thumb.ppost-18233-0-32943400-1383158679_thumb.gpost-18233-0-61383500-1383158714_thumb.g

     

    if we get more a UKMO pattern we might see a chance of bringing in some blocking and holding off the atlantic

     

     

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Accuweather going for a warmer than average winter for most of Europe with less snow for most areas

     

    Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

    According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

     

    Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities City Amount (Inches)

     

    Moscow 40-50 (101.60cm to 127cm)

     

    Berlin 3-6 (7.6cm to 15.24cm)

     

    London 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Paris 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Rome 0

     

    The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February. "Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

     

    Another grim Winter forecast for coldies!  Also, looking at their forecasts for the last two Winter's they seemed to do well which is a tad worrying.  Interesting though that they mention the chance of a SSW later in Winter which would be in line with Chiono's thoughts on the strat thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Posted Image

     

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    Another grim Winter forecast for coldies!  Also, looking at their forecasts for the last two Winter's they seemed to do well which is a tad worrying.  Interesting though that they mention the chance of a SSW later in Winter which would be in line with Chiono's thoughts on the strat thread.

     

    Hiya Don, i think ths is clearly the polar opposite of maddens predictions..... neither predictions come equipped with climatic projections, or reasoning of their assumtions....so lets not think autums going to last till next spring eh !!

    i mean if its as said `storms will track further north` then that suggests no block will manifest or well be sat on top of a bartlett all winter... with the jet to our north for ever lol... somehow i dont think so....as much as i dont think we will have a horror winter as madden makes out .

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    i mean if its as said `storms will track further north` then that suggests no block will manifest or well be sat on top of a bartlett all winter... with the jet to our north for ever lol... somehow i dont think so....as much as i dont think we will have a horror winter as madden makes out .

     

    Hi Bryan.  That's true but we mustn't forget 1988/89!  It is early days but with increasing forecasts going for a milder Winter this year including RJS who I rate highly, early signs aren't so good at least perhaps for the 1st half of Winter.  However, the weather during the last five years has certainly thrown up some surprises and made fools of lots of forecasts, so I agree all is not lost just yet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    Could someone briefly explain the synoptics from these charts please , i have a rough idea....one or two looking pretty goooooodPosted Image

    would i be right to assume the pink colours are areas of high pressure

    post-18134-0-79860000-1383161708_thumb.p

    post-18134-0-13655600-1383161724_thumb.p

    post-18134-0-73640000-1383161732_thumb.p

    post-18134-0-19110700-1383161745_thumb.p

    post-18134-0-06101400-1383161754_thumb.p

    Edited by bryan629
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Could someone briefly explain the synoptics from these charts please , i have a rough idea....one or two looking pretty goooooodPosted Image

    would i be right to assume the pink colours are areas of high pressure

     

    yes the pinks and reds are high pressure and the blues are low pressure

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    yes the pinks and reds are high pressure and the blues are low pressure

    Thanks... looking like a great winter in store should these be correct Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Thanks... looking like a great winter in store should these be correct Posted Image

     

    Yes, I have just posted two of the charts for individual days but of course the daily charts are just for fun and even the anomaly charts should be used with caution of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    take this chart I put in the blue H's for high pressure and red L's for low pressure

     

    yellow arrow is wind direction

     

    post-18233-0-38053600-1383162693_thumb.p

     

    remember this is an anomolie chart it doesn't mean the wind will always be that way it just means that the highest percentage of winds will likely be from that direction but they will differ through the month

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    yes, the deeper the pinks to the North the more often the winds will be from the East, If it is bright red and is off the scale and it verified (a big if of course) but just for arguments sake then you would be looking at a feb 1947.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    yes, the deeper the pinks to the North the more often the winds will be from the East, If it is bright red and is off the scale and it verified (a big if of course) but just for arguments sake then you would be looking at a feb 1947.

     

    i've rarely experienced an october on this forum when we haven't been staring down the barrel of another 1947.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    take this chart I put in the blue H's for high pressure and red L's for low pressure

     

    yellow arrow is wind direction

     

    Posted Imagecfsnh-4-2-2014.png

     

    remember this is an anomolie chart it doesn't mean the wind will always be that way it just means that the highest percentage of winds will likely be from that direction but they will differ through the month

    i thought as much ...it was just seeing a low pressure parked up where the azores is usually parked up that threw me... good post by the way.

    ive noticed the CFS nine monther is persistently showing a very cold march, looks a bit more severe than last march...and dare i say it into April as well .

     

    even though the anomoly charts look great for now at least... am i right to assume that they dont or cant factor in a SSW or do they make an assumption that one will take place at some point

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    i thought as much ...it was just seeing a low pressure parked up where the azores is usually parked up that threw me... good post by the way.

    ive noticed the CFS nine monther is persistently showing a very cold march, looks a bit more severe than last march...and dare i say it into April as well .

     

    even though the anomoly charts look great for now at least... am i right to assume that they dont or cant factor in a SSW or do they make an assumption that one will take place at some point

     

    I've no idea if they factor in the likely hood of an SSW but i'm sure there will be someone on here that will know that for you

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I've no idea if they factor in the likely hood of an SSW but i'm sure there will be someone on here that will know that for you

    I havent checked but would be surprised if the cfs model went very high into the strat in which case it couldnt forsee a SSW. (I dont think its too fair to compare accuweather and JM. I suspect the accuweather forwcaster has qualifications in meteorology.)
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ssw,s of of there pretext, just that SUDDEN stratespheric warms.so are of view more complex than your overall genral LRF, yet can be both hinted at and more important re-direct the overall course/outcome of winter as a whole.and to answer your question there does appear to be signals for occur.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Further more of early overall winter prospets via certain persons at such early juncture, imo. Should be viewd with caution!!!

    At least defining overall concur, and pinpointing, geographics.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    thanks for that tight isobar.... i did wonder though..Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    does anyone know what joe b`s thoughts/predictions for the uk/european winter are ?

    Edited by bryan629
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    i've rarely experienced an october on this forum when we haven't been staring down the barrel of another 1947.

     

     

    Of course its not going to happen I know that, I was just illustrating that really deep pinks in a long sausage shape to the North indicate a month of Easterlies, wheras pale shades could also indicate a spell of milder weather at some point during the month.

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