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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Staggering GEFS suite, at 216 not many bring complete blizzards or anything but a good number bring wintry PPN, they wont look spectacular in graph form on 850hpa temps because a lot are Easterlies with not bitterly cold air to tap into and some are anti-cyclonic but I cant see any that are mild at surface - all below average.

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Not sure what you mean by gulf stream reduction - are you trying to imply that it has decreased in size or potency? As far as I'm aware, even if the gulf stream disappeared completely, our winters would only cool by a few degrees at most - London would probably have a climate more akin to Prince Rupert, Canada or Ketchikan, Alaska in terms of winter temperatures - cold by London standards in any case. The gulf stream isn't actually the largest influence with regards to our mild winters.

 

Regardless, I'm merely saying that even the coldest periods of weather have mild winters - sometimes record breaking - so getting a mild winter now and then amongst colder ones isn't a big deal - if we are entering a period of colder winters, that is.

If the gulf stream stopped we would not have mild winters period. And the temperature drop would be 5° minimum in winter on average. The low pressures would not be half as potent as they are now and ice growth would increase towards Iceland. Not saying that the gulf stream has stopped, I just believe it has changed somewhat and has had an effect on our climate!!!

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People were saying in March 'If only we got those synoptics in January' but that is a bit of a contentious argument really because the Jetstream weakening is historically well underway by then, but with this setup showing on the models I quite agree as the Jetstream in usually powerful by now, this would be an absolute belting coming up if it was January.

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If the gulf stream stopped we would not have mild winters period. And the temperature drop would be 5° minimum in winter on average. The low pressures would not be half as potent as they are now and ice growth would increase towards Iceland. Not saying that the gulf stream has stopped, I just believe it has changed somewhat and has had an effect on our climate!!!

 

you sometimes need to watch with what people put out about the gulf stream and when they are taking there information from as there is times where it has changed lately but that isn't due to it being slowed or stopped its simply down to the NAO tanking and with high pressure to the north around Greenland it can divert the gulfstream up the west side of Greenland at the surface due to the wind pattern changing to an easterly flow across the atlantic.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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I already sense despondency in model discussion coming up after a warm autumn any kind of cold should be more than good enough for now, some it seems are expecting a snow Armageddon or something in November Posted Image

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you sometimes need to watch with what people put out about the gulf stream and when they are taking there information from as there is times where it has changed lately but that isn't due to it being slowed or stopped its simply down to the NAO tanking and with high pressure to the north around Greenland it can divert the gulfstream up the west side of Greenland at the surface due to the wind pattern changing to an easterly flow across the atlantic.

 

I did hear some scientists about 10 years ago though saying that a lot of the previous ice ages were proceeded by a series of mild Atlantic driven winters before the Gulf stream shut down, mind you quite how they knew that when they were god knows how many thousand years before records began.

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I really hope that the PV splits and sits over the UK. I've always wanted to experience severe cold and really, really deep snow. And living in the Clyde Valley you don't get over about 10cm of snow in the snowier days. Its been severe before but not in the 14 years I've been here. 2009/10 was a treat though!!Posted Image Posted Image 

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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I did hear some scientists about 10 years ago though saying that a lot of the previous ice ages were proceeded by a series of mild Atlantic driven winters before the Gulf stream shut down, mind you quite how they knew that when they were god knows how many thousand years before records began.

 

I've heard all sorts of different things about how ice ages happen but like everything else in life its all just theories (brainy guys all thinking they know everything and coming up with different solutions) and we will never find out till the next one comes around if anyone survives it.

 

its like this whole sun thing we can only say this will happen or that will happen but we will never know what happens till after the event and we sift through everything and find out what was really going on.

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Can someone tell me why I put myself through this ridiculous rollercoaster for 3/4 months every year?

 

Just been in the MAD thread - first the cold spell was on, then it was off, now it's back on again (possibly) - I really should stay out of there. But I can't stop myself. I think Netweather should have a Rehab thread!

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Can someone tell me why I put myself through this ridiculous rollercoaster for 3/4 months every year?

 

Just been in the MAD thread - first the cold spell was on, then it was off, now it's back on again (possibly) - I really should stay out of there. But I can't stop myself. I think Netweather should have a Rehab thread!

 

kate, you need to learn which posts to read and which ones to ignore. you'll find the ride much less scary but a lot less fun aswell !

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note caution for anyone thinking we are in a good position because we might not be and will be hoping for a either a second bite at the cherry or things can go horribly wrong in a hurry

 

Greenland or bust

 

 

here I will show you from the ECM 12z and note the bit I have circled in this first chart and this is our killer for getting deep cold with this first bite and why we don't want Scandinavia

 

post-18233-0-98772600-1384455622_thumb.g

 

now if we do see the heights heading for Scandinavia the two highs will link and as we can see from the arrow in this chart it will clearly cut off the cold uppers

 

post-18233-0-22536900-1384455797_thumb.g

 

this is why we have been seeing anomalies charts like these over the past while because of that big high pressure out toward Russia which only leaves us with a window to deep cold through a Greenland high as the high to our east will kill everything else and will leave us looking for a second bite at the cherry if one ever comes along as it will sink any height rises over Scandinavia.

 

post-18233-0-15819500-1384455949_thumb.p

 

so we want Greenland people and nothing else for a chance at prolonged deep cold at this stage

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note caution for anyone thinking we are in a good position because we might not be and will be hoping for a either a second bite at the cherry or things can go horribly wrong in a hurry

 

Greenland or bust

 

 

here I will show you from the ECM 12z and note the bit I have circled in this first chart and this is our killer for getting deep cold with this first bite and why we don't want Scandinavia

 

Posted ImageECH1-168.gif

 

now if we do see the heights heading for Scandinavia the two highs will link and as we can see from the arrow in this chart it will clearly cut off the cold uppers

 

Posted ImageECH1-192.gif

 

this is why we have been seeing anomalies charts like these over the past while because of that big high pressure out toward Russia which only leaves us with a window to deep cold through a Greenland high as the high to our east will kill everything else and will leave us looking for a second bite at the cherry if one ever comes along as it will sink any height rises over Scandinavia.

 

Posted Imagegfsanom_eu.png

 

so we want Greenland people and nothing else for a chance at prolonged deep cold at this stage

Dont worry i always believed the end of November had the real potential and more so of this model run.

 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?12

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to show is the ECM against the GEM

 

ECM

 

post-18233-0-01164600-1384457879_thumb.gpost-18233-0-63677600-1384457886_thumb.gpost-18233-0-37184400-1384457895_thumb.g

 

GEM

 

post-18233-0-62877900-1384457936_thumb.ppost-18233-0-78225200-1384457945_thumb.ppost-18233-0-51264700-1384457955_thumb.p

 

to me the ECM looks worse and might sink the high where the GEM has it looking better and for once I hope the GEM is closer to the mark and ECM is having a wobble towards the end and not trying to lead like it does alot

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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The GEFS ensemble is interesting. According to the spread chart below the solutions over Greenland are relatively coherent, with the greatest uncertainty to our NE and W. These look like areas of low pressure and the overall spread of the GEFS solutions, at least to my eye, is signalling high pressure over Greenland. I'd take a Greenland High over a Scandy high any day so this is good news overall.... though I still find it puzzling in the light of other stratospheric signals. Perhaps once again we have the models underestimating the influence of the Strat: this has been discussed before - will be interesting to see how this November pans out. Either way this next fortnight is a fascinating one - no boring start to winter this year for sure!

 

Spread here at T+384

 

Posted Image

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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The GEFS ensemble is interesting. According to the spread chart below the solutions over Greenland are relatively coherent, with the greatest uncertainty to our NE and W. These look like areas of low pressure and the overall spread of the GEFS solutions, at least to my high, is signalling high pressure over Greenland. I'd take a Greenland High over a Scandy high any day so this is good news overall.... though I still find it puzzling in the light of other stratospheric signals. Perhaps once again we have the models underestimating the influence of the Strat: this has been discussed before - will be interesting to see how this November pans out. Either way this next fortnight is a fascinating one - no boring start to winter this year for sure!

 

Spread here at T+384

 

Posted Image

What is going on in this chart??Posted Image 

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What is going on in this chart??Posted Image 

 

its a spread on dam

 

lower dam is lower heights and higher dam is higher hieghts

 

the colours are for how much it changes from each run on the ensembles

 

so scandanavia has a spread of 20 so it could be in a range of that lower or higher than the op run

 

meaning some have lower dam there some have higher and that's where the spread comes from.

 

the less spread the better modelled it is in that area the more spread the more unreliable the output is in that area.

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its a spread on dam

 

lower dam is lower heights and higher dam is higher hieghts

 

the colours are for how much it changes from each run on the ensembles

 

so scandanavia has a spread of 20 so it could be in a range of that lower or higher than the op run

 

meaning some have lower dam there some have higher and that's where the spread comes from.

 

the less spread the better modelled it is in that area the more spread the more unreliable the output is in that area.

Okay Thanks... Wow weather is very complicated! especially when your this age!

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Okay Thanks... Wow weather is very complicated! especially when your this age!

 

don't worry you will pick it up quick once you get used to it and you are doing the right thing asking if you are not sure as it is the only way you will learn.

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How is it looking for us coldies? Usually I can browse through the mod thread and get a pretty good idea how things are going but I am clueless this evening.

There seems to be mix of opinions but am I right in saying we're looking at a 2-3 day cold snap with rain/sleet at lower levels in the south?

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How is it looking for us coldies? Usually I can browse through the mod thread and get a pretty good idea how things are going but I am clueless this evening.There seems to be mix of opinions but am I right in saying we're looking at a 2-3 day cold snap with rain/sleet at lower levels in the south?

 

yes looking like that in the south next week and still all to play for after that the models will tell us more over the weekend.

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It is a shame it's just two months too early to give what would be a memorable cold spell should it of evolved as shown then.

 

 

I think you mean one month too early Gibby unless you are saying there is absolutely no chance of memorable cold spells until mid January, well I think December 2010 and many other cold spells where the coldest temps on record for the UK are recorded in late December disprove your point big time, second half of December can be very cold indeed as nights are at their longest/sun power weakest and the continent starting to get very cold.

Edited by Eugene
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