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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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JOE B posted this pic on twitter the right side is the GEFS z500 mean chart it looks good

 

post-18233-0-67287800-1384434927_thumb.p


I live in Eastern Central Scotland so I am hopeful about seeing snow next week Posted Image

 

go to top right of page click on your name go to profile and put your location in your profile then if you ask any questions about your location it can be answered correctly

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greetings to one and all, well here we go again, approaching my fav time of year, the ups and downs of will it snow, wont it snow, personally i hope we get loads and i dont have to wait for my trip to Iceland in feb to see any.

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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.

We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.

But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.

I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....

the rest of that winter was rubbish.

Sorry to be a party pooper

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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....the rest of that winter was rubbish.Sorry to be a party pooper

 

Ah, that would have been 2005. I remember it well. Oddly, even though I'm not far from Bristol, the winter of 05-06 wasn't bad at all around here, at least compared to the winters of the previous decade or so. 81-82 and 10-11 are probably the best examples of how fantastic starts to winter can fizzle out some time after New Year.

 

Next Wednesday:

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZBemb8CYAIufGB.png:large

Edited by Jackfrost
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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.

We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.

But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.

I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....

the rest of that winter was rubbish.

Sorry to be a party pooper

 

Aww don't wreck the dreams BB, you are a party popper like you say Posted Image

 

Another way to look at is that we had a huge number of rubbish winters, then we've not done too badly recently, so maybe this winter will be another mildfest of mush? Therefore if there is a cold spell coming in the next couple of weeks we should be ramping it through the roof and really making a big deal out of it, just on the off chance it's all we get?

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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....the rest of that winter was rubbish.Sorry to be a party pooper

Personally the colder winters are here to stay for a while yet. The trend of winters in the 90s are well in the past. We have seen a global shift since 2006, not just the winter but summer as well. I understand  that people want to get carried away with headlines like 'snowmageddon' and i agree a note of caution should be taken and all aspects of cold and mild should be taken seriously. However having looked at the way the models are behaving i thinks some have it nailed and others just cant process the blocking pattern. I think this winter has a similar vain as 2010 did tbh.

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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....the rest of that winter was rubbish.Sorry to be a party pooper

I think we are in a different era now and although a very mild winter could follow I have a feeling this year may surprise a few people, especially if you are a coldie! 😉 My thoughts are cold next week and first week of December, then a mild interlude, before blocking becomes an increasing feature leading to a very cold Jan, Feb and first half of March......only time will tell, but it will definitely be interesting to see what does unfold.
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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....the rest of that winter was rubbish.Sorry to be a party pooper

Isn't there a saying "Ice in November to bury a duck, the rest of the winter is slush and muck." I don't really buy into sayings though. December 2010 followed the cold end to November and as we all know December is classed as winter.2011 itself was a shocker here for snow though. From memory we went the whole year without any lying snow. We were in York sometime in Feb that year and woke up to a dusting of snow which quickly turned to sleet. When We got back home it was just wet flakes with nothing settling. I remember being disappointed at the time as usually up here is good for snow if there is some about. A month later though we found out we were having a baby so the weekend in York had turned out to be quite productive in the end.Skip forward 9 months and I remember being woken up at about 3 in the morning to do the night feed and when I looked out it was snowing quite heavily. By morning it was gone though, so all in all 2011 wasn't a memorable year for snow here.
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I'd also add a note of caution to anyone thinking that late November cold and snow means the forthcoming winter will be memorable in terms of cold and snow.We had dreadfully mild and virtually snowless winters from late 90s through to late noughties.But one year, i think it may have been 2006 (but i'm sure someone with better knowledge will know for sure) we had a cold and snowy few days in late November here in the south west, after a run of virtually snowless years.I thought at the time "At last a decent cold, snowy winter to come after the mild mush of previous 10 years" But alas.....the rest of that winter was rubbish.Sorry to be a party pooper

Don't forget Nov 2008 which was snowy for some, and was followed by a decently snowy winter for a lot of us.

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Some saying we're in a new era of colder winters.

Well, look at winters 78-91. That's been regarded by many as a good set of winters post WW2, incl myself, esp the 78-87 period.

But, even that set of winters had a number of mild winters, with little snow.

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Snow Threat With Cold Snap 'Around The Corner'

 

The first low level snowfall of winter is expected as early as next week, as temperatures plummet and bitter Arctic winds blow into Britain. Forecasters at the Met Office warned of "significant snow accumulations" over higher ground, potentially as far south as Devon, as well as in non-mountainous northern areas. Wintry showers are expected to bring a combination of rain, sleet and snow as they are pushed southwards by northerly winds on Tuesday. The mercury is set to drop sharply, rising barely above freezing during daytime hours for some.

 

Overnight temperatures will feel as cold as minus five degrees Celsius in parts of the North of England, forecasters said. Sky News weather producer Joanna Robinson said: "It's been a relatively mild autumn so far, but the first proper cold spell is just around the corner, reminding us that winter is upon us. "It will turn noticeably colder early next week and by Tuesday, temperatures will range from two degrees Celsius in northern Scotland to six degrees Celsius in southern England. "They'll be widespread frosts overnight too with a risk of icy patches.

 

"The unsettled theme is likely to continue, bringing the threat of snow as it turns colder. "The snow looks mainly confined to the hills, with a covering possible as far south as Dartmoor and Exmoor, but potentially to lower levels in the north.

"The detail of any snow is still uncertain so it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast in the coming few days." A spokesman for the Met Office said it was difficult to predict the weather beyond the end of next week but warned temperatures are likely to be "just below average". "Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December," he added.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1168636/snow-threat-with-cold-snap-around-the-corner

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It's the UK -  not every winter will be cold. Even the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum had some mild winters.

Maybe so but the hot topic at the moment regarding global shifts and the gulf stream reduction were not an issue in these periods. Comparing two periods of cold is useless. Like comparing Vettel and Schumacher, it cant be done, different cars different era. Tbh we may get a mild winter somewhere down the line but it isnt going to be this winter and any mild winter is now going to be isolated event to the norm. We have more science now then ever before and NOBODY has come out and said these colder than average winters are going away, if fact most say they will become more frequent!!! I don't base this on preference to liking cold weather, just using the facts available.

Edited by iamstuart
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Maybe so but the hot topic at the moment regarding global shifts and the gulf stream reduction were not an issue in these periods. Comparing two periods of cold is useless. Like comparing Vettel and Schumacher, it cant be done, different cars different era. Tbh we may get a mild winter somewhere down the line but it isnt going to be this winter and any mild winter is now going to be isolated event to the norm. We have more science now then ever before and NOBODY has come out and said these colder than average winters are going away, if fact most say they will become more frequent!!! I don't base this on preference to liking cold weather, just using the facts available.

Not sure what you mean by gulf stream reduction - are you trying to imply that it has decreased in size or potency? As far as I'm aware, even if the gulf stream disappeared completely, our winters would only cool by a few degrees at most - London would probably have a climate more akin to Prince Rupert, Canada or Ketchikan, Alaska in terms of winter temperatures - cold by London standards in any case. The gulf stream isn't actually the largest influence with regards to our mild winters.

 

Regardless, I'm merely saying that even the coldest periods of weather have mild winters - sometimes record breaking - so getting a mild winter now and then amongst colder ones isn't a big deal - if we are entering a period of colder winters, that is.

Edited by cheese
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