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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

They most certain are crew cold..uncanny divulge occuring! Things need a cautious eye....:)

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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

Those charts are as close to November/December 2010 as you can get. I actually thought they were archive charts at first.

Would love to see them if someone can dig them out to compare. 2010 was magic.

Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Aurora Storm and I went to a very interesting Royal Meteorological Society lecture on the sun and its role in climate change in Edinburgh with Professor Joanna Haigh last night.

 
The basis of it was that heat output from the sun is not affecting earths climate but that fluctuating levels of U.V. related to sunspot activity and acting on the upper atmosphere are leading to extra movements north and south of the jetstream and so affecting the surface weather. She also said it was most apparent in the mid latitudes and any one observing the weather in Scotland could pick up the changes in the last decade or so and probably link it to the changes in sunspot activity that are causing it.
 

An almost carbon copy of her lecture is available here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSsTZJ8Ff4Q 

 

 

Are we about to see some interesting surface weather because of this next week?
Posted ImagePlay
 
The sun and the climate Imperial College London

Professor Joanna Haigh, Head of the Department of Physics, discusses the effect of the variations of solar forces on the earth's climate. For more information please visit http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/eventssummary/event_27-3-2013-14-27-33

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here are the holy grail upper wavelength patterns for sustained cold, these are what you need to start showing if you want a Dec 2010.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

There are some even better ones but I cannot remember them all but basically you want as many ridges as possible to put pressure on and keep constant pressure on the vortex.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Take a look at P9 on the 18z GEFS, think its going to be staggering.

 

This is what I mean by a stonking wavelength pattern, this is one of my specials, a cream nightclub logo speciality.

 

 

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

Thanks for that  2013's chart looks like its 2010's colder brother to my untrained eye, Some snow streamers would again be the icing on the cake if we get it again here.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Looks like that prediction of a cold snap around 20th Nov I made on my signature looks like coming true, lets hope it is but lets hope the one for December is severely wrong!!!

 

Still think the cooling upper strat wont be met with enough resistance but looking at some of the posts in the strat thread, it isn't out of the question that we might get enough wave activity to just get by so a little more confidence, for now I will stick with my forecast but will finalise it on 30th Nov.


The CFS wants to establish a negative NAO/AO from as early as the 19th. Interestingly, the trend is maintained through early Dec.

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Yes I saw that post in the strat thread, those are good, not the most negative ever but surely very good.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Take a look at P9 on the 18z GEFS, think its going to be staggering.

 

This is what I mean by a stonking wavelength pattern, this is one of my specials, a cream nightclub logo speciality.

 

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

Jeezo, that reminds me of December 2010, the most stonking GH perhaps in the history of the archives:

Posted Image

 

It was such a dominant high that the warm front that preceeded the trough brought the warmest temperatures of the whole month, melting most of the snow from the earlier epic cold spell (the dizzying heights of 8C-10C for most) before the cold front piled on in behind.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

 

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services...

 

 

Should probably read as any of the following:

 

Jonathan Powell, scam-artist for Vantage Weather Services

 

Jonathan Powell, taking a blind stab at the weather for Vantage Weather Services

 

Jonathan Powell, checking the sea-weed for Vantage Weather Services

 

Jonathan Powell, *insert profanity here* for Vantage Weather Services

 

etc etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

Last nights met office Extremes:

 

 

 

Highest max 0900-2100 12.3 °C Bude
Lowest max 0900-2100 6.4 °C Dalwhinnie
Lowest min 2100-0900 -3.5 °C Benson
Highest rainfall 2100-2100 23.8 mm Cluanie Inn
Sunniest 2100-2100 7.4 hours Wattisham 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I prefer ECMWF 00Z to GFS, rain written all over it for low levels in the south on GFS, next week, where as ECMWF has high pressure, frost and fog

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Floods Warning For Winter After Wet October

 

Parts of England are facing an "increased likelihood" of flooding this winter following a wet October. The Environment Agency warned that the west of the country was most at risk after "persistent" wet weather had left the ground very wet.

A  strong westerly jet stream is expected to "dominate" through much of November bringing bands of rain, the agency said. It added that strong winds could increase the risk of flooding, as leaves and branches block drains and rivers. Officials urged families and businesses to check their flood risk.

 

"The most important thing that we can all do to protect ourselves from the devastation that flooding can cause is to be prepared," said David Rooke, director of flood and coastal risk management at the Environment Agency. "Every £1 spent on protecting communities from flooding saves £8 in repairing damage. "Over the last three years, we have protected an additional 182,000 homes and businesses with new flood defence schemes." Meanwhile, homes on low-lying land on the Norfolk and Suffolk coast could be flooded on Thursday night, a spokesman said. A combination of possible gale force winds, large waves and a moderate coastal surge could lead to localised flooding.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1168347/floods-warning-for-winter-after-wet-october

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Floods Warning For Winter After Wet October

 

Parts of England are facing an "increased likelihood" of flooding this winter following a wet October. The Environment Agency warned that the west of the country was most at risk after "persistent" wet weather had left the ground very wet.

A  strong westerly jet stream is expected to "dominate" through much of November bringing bands of rain, the agency said. It added that strong winds could increase the risk of flooding, as leaves and branches block drains and rivers. Officials urged families and businesses to check their flood risk.

 

"The most important thing that we can all do to protect ourselves from the devastation that flooding can cause is to be prepared," said David Rooke, director of flood and coastal risk management at the Environment Agency. "Every £1 spent on protecting communities from flooding saves £8 in repairing damage. "Over the last three years, we have protected an additional 182,000 homes and businesses with new flood defence schemes." Meanwhile, homes on low-lying land on the Norfolk and Suffolk coast could be flooded on Thursday night, a spokesman said. A combination of possible gale force winds, large waves and a moderate coastal surge could lead to localised flooding.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1168347/floods-warning-for-winter-after-wet-october

 

Now that is more realistic, instead of James Madden spouting his unrealistic crap

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

 

If you think thats bad did you see yesterdays story? of course the number one suspects for quoting these ridiculous stories are involved

 

HEAVY SNOW WARNING: Shock long range UK weather forecast for winter 2013

 

BRITAIN faces months of freezing winds and heavy snow as long-range forecasters predict a “horror winter†ahead. Winter 2013 into 2014 is forecast to be “exceptionally severe†with above-average snowfall and plunging temperatures.Long-range weather forecasts warn of bitter Arctic gales leading to feet-deep snow drifts right up until February. Snow forecasts for winter 2013 suggest much of the country will be hit by heavy wintry downpours with no let up well into next year. As lovers of the white stuff ask ‘will it snow?’ this winter, the general consensus among long-range forecasters is a resounding ‘yes’. However they said winter could bring chaos similar to the big freeze of 2010/11 which saw airports close and roads grind to a standstill for months.

 

The warnings come as temperatures begin to dip around the UK with the first “real taste†of winter likely to hit next week. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said Britain is braced for “copious†snowfall this winter with extreme cold expected to last into the spring. He added that Britain faces “an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern timesâ€. He said: “An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is highly likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring. “It will be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale. “This period of snow and cold is likely to result in an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times.“A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more prolonged scale in terms of overall duration.â€

 

January is likely to bring the worst of the weather although Britain will shiver in below-average temperatures for the next three months. He said: “This is certainly a record-breaking and historical weather period which is likely to see one of the coldest and snowiest starts to British New Year in a very long time.†Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said this winter could be the worst for decades. He said: “We are looking at something on a par with 2010 when Britain was hit by particularly bad big freeze. “The focal point at this stage seems to be January, when we could see widespread heavy snow and below-average temperatures. “This could stretch out for weeks, meaning we could be looking at the worst winter big freeze for decades.â€

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week

 

I bet this part took some working out

 

As lovers of the white stuff ask ‘will it snow?’ this winter, the general consensus among long-range forecasters is a resounding ‘yes

 

its winter it snows every winter even in the mild ones

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I'm seeing a lot of references to 2010 in the MOD thread, however Brian Gaze over at TWO is a lot more cautious

 

Very different to the run up to the November 2010 freeze when the computer models were consistently showing showing very cold air across north western Europe for an extended period of time. At the moment the set-up looks a lot more fickle, and although it should become cold enough for snow in the north I’m less convinced about the risk extending south for any length of time. It could do but I’d like to see quite a lot more evidence first before making a call.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Mr gaze also flags up the potential for a prolonged cold spell, and unusual develops over the pole, possibly adding to intensity of cold @brain gaze Twitter..

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Plus further what a lot are begining to suspect), an early onslaught of PROPER winter with perhaps major prolongment.

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Posted
  • Location: Jaywick, Essex, 3m
  • Location: Jaywick, Essex, 3m

Considering no one puts chains on their cars during heavy snow, instead relying on snow trucks to salt the roads. It's no wonder anything with a bit of snow is considered devastating.

 

If a mini ice age began, everyone would have to learn to ski to work and breed some huskies. Would be nice.

 

Salt on the roads looks disgusting. A mucky muddy mess that poisons trees near to roads. Roads look so nice not gritted and perfectly safe with snow chains. Here gritted roads also give a false sense of security, with people driving like they would on a summers day.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashton U Lyne 189m/620ft ASL
  • Location: Ashton U Lyne 189m/620ft ASL

will have to have a look at works weather updates today (i work for a big supermarket) only been signaling cool weather recently but really should show worse for next week now :) 

 

got me old weatherstation set up at my house ready for the colder weather to come hopefully.  

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

Considering no one puts chains on their cars during heavy snow, instead relying on snow trucks to salt the roads. It's no wonder anything with a bit of snow is considered devastating. If a mini ice age began, everyone would have to learn to ski to work and breed some huskies. Would be nice. Salt on the roads looks disgusting. A mucky muddy mess that poisons trees near to roads. Roads look so nice not gritted and perfectly safe with snow chains. Here gritted roads also give a false sense of security, with people driving like they would on a summers day.

Gritter doesnt get to within 4 miles of here. When it comes down your on your own round here.
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