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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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I don't know whether to laugh or cry. This is a new low even for the tabloids.

 

The problem is people can take these things seriously.

 

You feel you need a JH disclaimer to each article

 

e.g “â€â€at the very best we can make reasonably reliable forecasts out to 4/5 days please treat this forecast as you would a horoscope, harmless funâ€â€

Edited by stewfox
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The problem is people can take these things seriously.

 

You feel you need a JH disclaimer to each article

 

e.g “â€â€at the very best we can make reasonably reliable forecasts out to 4/5 days please treat this forecast as you would a horoscope, harmless funâ€â€

 

happy to provide that to them for quite a small fee!

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Slightly delayed update...

 

Below is the latest CFS 12z blocking trends for December

 

Posted Image

 

The 10 day average remain close to 1, or weak +ve SLP anomalies to our north, with the downward trend remaining quite strong.

The last 7 days have averaged 1.7 (moderate blocking), with 1 run having -ve SLP anomalies to our north, and 6 with +ve (previous week averaged 1.3, with 1 -ve, 2 neutral and 4 +ve runs)

 

 

Below is the latest January graph

 

Posted Image

 

 

The 10 day mean was close to 2 for most of the time, but dropped close to 1 over the last 2 days. The trend remains close to neutral though.

The last week has averaged 1.1, with 2 -ve runs and 5 +ve (previous week averaged 2.0, with 6 +ve and 1 neutral run).

 

Some highlights from the last week

 

Best

January 2014 from November 6th

Posted Image

 

Worst

March 2014 from November 10th

 

Posted Image

 

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Express, Star and Mail. Should hang there heads in shame, there inaccurate weather information from the likes of Madden, Corbyn, Jon Powell.... The stories get worse! Posted Image

 

Tell me about it the Daily Mail have a headline tomorrow

 

"Drinkers risk injury as big freeze on the way, health and safety officials in Newcastle have warned drinkers to be careful, warnings go un heeded".

 

When does it end.Posted Image 

post-7914-0-19825000-1384349243_thumb.jp

Edited by stewfox
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ECM run again today shows the massive uncertainty in the modelling to our north. Bear in mind that this is a standard deviation assessment of the variation in spread, and quite clearly the ECM is having trouble resolving what is going on:

 

Posted Image

 

 

I would suggest this is a good thing for cold. The models are usually pretty good at pinning down a strong westerly pattern and I would expect the deviation to be a lot less if such a pattern were likely. The spread of ENS options does not guarantee a blocking scenario in the making, but it does increase the chances!

 

Personally I still dont see a major shot of cold on the horizon but I am more optimistic than I was a week ago when the signals to me looked like they were falling in line for a very unremarkable run up to Xmas. Wave 2 impact on the strat is still forecast and that can only be a good thing. SSTs as I posted yesterday could be a lot worse and CFS has them moving in the right direction.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Taking a look at the latest CFS forecast averaged over the last 4 runs for the winter months.

Pressure/Temperature/Rainfall

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

December

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

January

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

February

Edited by draztik
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I realise for many on here cold equates with snow but one phnomenon we've not seen for a few winters and which might be overdue for a revisit is a large HP sitting over or just to the East of the UK in midwinter.

 

This is perfectly capable, via inversion, of bringing ice days and extensive fog to southern eastern and central areas of England as well as east Wales and southern Scotland.

 

It's a route to cold some on here won't like as there won't be any snow so we're not dealing with Greenland or Scandinavian HP cells but perhaps a displaced Azores HP or possibly even a retrogressing MLB.

 

Anyway, put the HP in the right place with some clear air and let the inversion do the rest in midwinter.

 

I'm not one for winter forecasts or reading the various runes but if I were to put some money (and very nce money it is too) on an event this winter it would be a mid-December HP with frost, fog and very cold, settled conditions.

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ECM run again today shows the massive uncertainty in the modelling to our north. Bear in mind that this is a standard deviation assessment of the variation in spread, and quite clearly the ECM is having trouble resolving what is going on:

 

 

I prefer to use the normalised SD shown on the ECMWF website. Although the spread is high, the context provided by the normalised product shows that it doesn't stand out as being seriously unusually high for that part of the world in recent weeks. Flicking through the runs up to the end of next week, I'd argue that the most interesting spread appears to our south, associated with the possible troughing forming over Europe, which is relevant to how the high might eventually orient itself if it does flatten somewhat.

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from MATT HUGO on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m

There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK.

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

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from MATT HUGO on twitter Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK. Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

Do you remember last December when 41 of the 51 supported THAT ECM. Just saying like. :-)
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my punt for this winter below

 

from MATT HUGO on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m

There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK.

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

could he mean a bit like this....

 

post-18134-0-01627900-1384377352_thumb.p i certainly hope so

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could he mean a bit like this....

 

Posted Imagecfs-0-312.png i certainly hope so

The chart you have posted is not very cold. Here are the 850's...

 

Posted Image

 

I would much prefer to see something along these lines...

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Edit: Above charts have now changed.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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