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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

might we be seeing the infamous TRIPOLE setting up in the atlantic its trying anyway

 

post-18233-0-34793900-1384216097_thumb.gpost-18233-0-04459400-1384216105_thumb.gpost-18233-0-76752200-1384216110_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

might we be seeing the infamous TRIPOLE setting up in the atlantic its trying anyway

 

Posted Imageanomnight_11_4_2013.gifPosted Imageanomnight_11_7_2013.gifPosted Imageanomnight_11_11_2013.gif

What is a Tripole?

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

He was in my opinion (joking that is) Around mid afternoon there was some light banter said on here regarding NI getting snow Posted Image

Great picture .....Looks cold up there Posted Image

Aaaah I see, my mistake.

Many thanks!, and yes it does look cold! When I had the big lens on I could see snow drifting about. Would be a significant wind chill up there I bet.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

Early prediction-

mixed December, some anticyclonic colder days, mostly W/NW/SW dominated, maybe one colder spell from the N

January increasingly cold, possibly a SW start, changing SE/E with a potential later cold blast

February very cold, dominated by E/SE winds, increasingly milder later on after a very cold first half

I'd take the clear and colder variatio  of anticyclonic failing the most preferred scenario, Christmas 08 wasn't bad for that very reason.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

What is a Tripole?

 

note the atlantic in the chart

 

W = warm

 

C = cold

 

TRIPOLE =  warm then cold then warm ( warm south of Greenland, cold mid atlantic and warm tropical atlantic)

 

post-18233-0-92267000-1384218558_thumb.g

 

its said if this sets up in the atlantic it can mean a cold winter for us here in the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

Everyone must be having a lay in this morning!!! Lol Posted Image

 

Bring on some hard frosts and proper Winter weather Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

Last night Weather extremes from met office:

 

lowest Maximum Santon downham -3.2 C.

lowest maximum Braemar 9.6 C.

Highest Maximum Exeter airport 16 C.

Highest rainfall mumbles head 25.6 mm.

Sunniest Dyce 5 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

might we be seeing the infamous TRIPOLE setting up in the atlantic its trying anywayanomnight_11_4_2013.gif anomnight_11_7_2013.gif anomnight_11_11_2013.gif

one thing ive noticed is that the tripole seems to be getting stronger over the past couple of weeks which can only be good news!!
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

one thing ive noticed is that the tripole seems to be getting stronger over the past couple of weeks which can only be good news!!

The tripole back in 2009 didn't really show fully until the end of December, also the same for 2010. A long way to go yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire

The tripole back in 2009 didn't really show fully until the end of December, also the same for 2010. A long way to go yet.

We got extreme cold values end of november/begining of December 2010 so a fully established tripole is not the only factor in the science of extreme cold over the uk. I think the tripole is growing, there is evidence to support this. Also i am seeing other little pointers that push us below average winter wise. There is no stand out evidence to support a mild winter. A lot of reasearch i have done for this year regarding trends ect is on a par with 2010.

Edited by iamstuart
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Looks more like a Tad Pole than a Tri Pole (as things stand. )

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Only looked at about 7 or 8 so far and only out to 180 so bare with me but it looks like some cracking GEFS members, a few develop a really potent wave very similar to 8th Dec 1990.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

On the back 10 the theme is more for a High to the North of Scotland and around Iceland.

 

 

This graph for around my area give or take 20 miles.http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=227&y=43

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire

Looks more like a Tad Pole than a Tri Pole (as things stand. )

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.9.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.10.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.11.2013.gif

 

You can see from the sept/october/november that we have an evolving tripole!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

 

Yup we do indeed, roll that on 5 months and we'll have a fully grown frog :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire

Yup we do indeed, roll that on 5 months and we'll have a fully grown frog :-)

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.11.8.2010.gif

Same time ( 8/11/2010 ) 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.30.2010.gif

End of December 2010.

 

Not exactly a 5 month span!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

is a split PV good or bad ?

 

Good, doesn't guarantee cold spell because it depends on where the separated chunks end up, you can end up with one chunk over Greenland still driving the Jetstream over us, but it gives us an infinitely better chance than if you get a really organised large PV dominating.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM ensembles from this morning and a little something I have noticed and put a little arrow is the mean dropping below 5c which I am sure hasn't happened yet as the ones I have seen have been hovering over the 5c line.

 

could mean a colder spell than being forecast on the OPERATIONAL run

 

post-18233-0-83680800-1384256977_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Split Vortex anyone???

 

Posted Image

 

 

I`ll take it..... oh and this one just in time for crimbo....Posted Image

 

post-18134-0-98187900-1384257522_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Met office talking about snow on the northern hills next week

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 26 Nov 2013:

 

Cloud and outbreaks of rain across northern parts on Sunday will move erratically southeastwards and should eventually clear the far southeast by Monday morning. Through the week, there is a trend for most parts to become colder and more unsettled, with showers or more persistent spells of rain, which may be locally heavy and also turn wintry over the hills in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales across northern areas. Overnight frosts are also likely to become more widespread than recently. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and on the chilly side, with spells of rain or showers. These may turn wintry, mainly over northern hills. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in the south.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Getting a Greenland persist HP in place is as complex as the final evolve,.However as we know once blocking is in place It's a bugger to break(most time) further the ecm has stronger trending for the possible occurance so craved by,many.and as some have pointed gfs is a wobble model, as far as such evolve, ecm has out trended and performed gfs many many times.this is not bias at alby the way but factual.keep watching ecm, for evolve, in regards blocking!!!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

hot off twitter

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 23m

Europe-parties over as it turns colder, could deepen into a December to remember. Blocking could pop Hope those turbines are working

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

heres another joe b tweet

 

Joe Bastardiâ€@BigJoeBastardi1m

Make sure the Turbines are working Europe,cold is coming and become king in December pic.twitter.com/sPt2XCbSN2

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