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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Summer Sun, it's going to be a repeat of 1962/63 so I'd wrap up warm Posted Image

    Edited by Barry95
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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Accuweather going for a warmer than average winter for most of Europe with less snow for most areas

     

    Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

    According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

     

    Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities City Amount (Inches)

     

    Moscow 40-50 (101.60cm to 127cm)

     

    Berlin 3-6 (7.6cm to 15.24cm)

     

    London 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Paris 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Rome 0

     

    The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February. "Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

    Yay Record Hot winter.More like a guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    How many times!

     

    ANYONE making an 'accurate' forecast for the entire winter now is not to be taken seriously.

     

    We are still well in Autumn.

     

    I would hate a mild winter but will live with it if it comes, but I will not trust any forecast for the entire season this far out.

     

    Snow and ice coverage is well ahead of even 2010, the sun activity is seemingly better as well. Anything using long range models is a 50/50 at best.

    Edited by throwoff
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    lets just hope at some time during winter we all get to see scenes like these

     

    post-18233-0-25647200-1383149161_thumb.jpost-18233-0-04252700-1383149170_thumb.jpost-18233-0-01700500-1383149180_thumb.jpost-18233-0-74890100-1383149184_thumb.jpost-18233-0-46684300-1383149191_thumb.jpost-18233-0-81458400-1383149202_thumb.jpost-18233-0-04632600-1383149223_thumb.jpost-18233-0-51796400-1383149236_thumb.jpost-18233-0-93124700-1383149253_thumb.jpost-18233-0-91597500-1383149265_thumb.jpost-18233-0-84262200-1383149278_thumb.jpost-18233-0-37350100-1383149302_thumb.jpost-18233-0-97790500-1383149320_thumb.jpost-18233-0-62202800-1383149339_thumb.jpost-18233-0-15769600-1383149362_thumb.jpost-18233-0-15619800-1383149388.jpgpost-18233-0-47627400-1383149412.jpgpost-18233-0-70042100-1383149430.jpgpost-18233-0-15462800-1383149442.jpgpost-18233-0-02407500-1383149454.jpgpost-18233-0-27502800-1383149468.jpgpost-18233-0-86292700-1383149487.jpgpost-18233-0-70983900-1383149497.jpgpost-18233-0-03741400-1383149511.jpgpost-18233-0-32762400-1383149524_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    James madden has posted this on his website.
     
    The dominant conditions of largely unsettled weather and strong/severe winds is also likely to continue into November, in particular, around bonfire night. This will also bring the additional risk for some further violent storms and hurricane strength weather events throughout the first half of November. November is also likely to turn significantly and progressively colder than of late. This will allow some wintry/snow showers to develop in places, with an increased risk of more widespread snow developing across the country, especially in the second half of the month in some northern and eastern parts of the country.
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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    James Madden is about as reliable as a chocolate teapot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl

     

    James madden has posted this on his website.
     
    The dominant conditions of largely unsettled weather and strong/severe winds is also likely to continue into November, in particular, around bonfire night. This will also bring the additional risk for some further violent storms and hurricane strength weather events throughout the first half of November. November is also likely to turn significantly and progressively colder than of late. This will allow some wintry/snow showers to develop in places, with an increased risk of more widespread snow developing across the country, especially in the second half of the month in some northern and eastern parts of the country.

     

     

    *sigh* He does cheer me up though !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    For those that want to compare auucweather's winter forecasts here is the 2012 / 2013 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

     

    And the 2011 / 2012 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-europe/56653

    They also got 20010/11 spectacularly wrong if my memory serves me right, as with any LRF they are only of any use once that period of forecast has passed IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

    4-6 inches is still better than a huge kick in the teeth though

    Well considering we get more than that in one snowfall alot of the time, I would be horrified if we got that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    two charts here are SST's from the 14th of this month and the latest which is the 28th of this month

     

    note the warmer water moving north toward Greenland and the cold pooling starting in the mid atlantic hopefully this could be first signs of the TRI POLE starting to set up in the atlantic which we will need to keep our eyes on through next month

     

    post-18233-0-33391300-1383151384_thumb.gpost-18233-0-53113700-1383151394_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Colder periods that stand out to me are the middle of November, start of Jan and March (CFS consistently showing March as being a cold month)  

    Crewe you seem to be thinking similar thoughts to me? 

     

    As I type this, the GFS ends on another toppling (kind of) Atlantic ridge around mid month bringing a brief period of -4C uppers to the south (-5C/-6C to Northern England/Scotland).

    Posted Image

     

    *But* it then ends on this:

    Posted Image

     

    Nice chart with loads of potential but obviously the usual caveats apply! We await the ensembles..

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Would like to think i'd be getting more snow than that.

     

     

    a lot of that is last march where unfortunately due to the sun most melts during the day especially here as I am near sea level, there were a good few snow events just couldn't build up, lost my 2010 pics as comp failed but posted them in here last winter and trying to track them down

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Colder periods that stand out to me are the middle of November, start of Jan and March (CFS consistently showing March as being a cold month)  

    Crewe you seem to be thinking similar thoughts to me? 

     

    As I type this, the GFS ends on another toppling (kind of) Atlantic ridge around mid month bringing a brief period of -4C uppers to the south (-5C/-6C to Northern England/Scotland).

    Posted Image

     

    *But* it then ends on this:

    Posted Image

     

    Nice chart with loads of potential but obviously the usual caveats apply! We await the ensembles..

     

    Was going to post this chart. The last few days have seen a few charts of some potential at the tail end of FI, nothing specifically noteworthy or reliable, but interesting nonetheless. Maybe mid November will see a change in this quite active Atlantic dominated period of weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Maybe this will float your boat better! From March last year in North Wales!

    post-17320-0-54724200-1383151822_thumb.j

    post-17320-0-61639700-1383151823_thumb.j

    post-17320-0-74003600-1383151824_thumb.j

    post-17320-0-64699700-1383151825_thumb.j

    post-17320-0-50781500-1383151843_thumb.p

    post-17320-0-56946600-1383151853_thumb.p

    post-17320-0-04240900-1383151855_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

    Some encouragement on the 12Z gfs in late FI. High shifting over/slightly north of UK linking with a strong greenland high pulling colder air into Europe. FI, but Better than not seeing it!

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Colder periods that stand out to me are the middle of November, start of Jan and March (CFS consistently showing March as being a cold month)  

    Crewe you seem to be thinking similar thoughts to me? 

     

    As I type this, the GFS ends on another toppling (kind of) Atlantic ridge around mid month bringing a brief period of -4C uppers to the south (-5C/-6C to Northern England/Scotland).

    Posted Image

     

    *But* it then ends on this:

    Posted Image

     

    Nice chart with loads of potential but obviously the usual caveats apply! We await the ensembles..

     

    yep some nice straight lines in the atlantic could see that high pressure getting sucked up toward Greenland/Iceland area leaving us with either a northerly or northeasterly would be good if we can see something like this sticking around and being pulled in to the reliable

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

    Colder periods that stand out to me are the middle of November, start of Jan and March (CFS consistently showing March as being a cold month)  

    Crewe you seem to be thinking similar thoughts to me? 

     

    As I type this, the GFS ends on another toppling (kind of) Atlantic ridge around mid month bringing a brief period of -4C uppers to the south (-5C/-6C to Northern England/Scotland).

    Posted Image

     

    *But* it then ends on this:

    Posted Image

     

    Nice chart with loads of potential but obviously the usual caveats apply! We await the ensembles..

    What's intresting for me is the pv has shifted from Greenland over scandi and into Siberia. This is what we need and it looks like its splitting and moving to Asia where it was a few weeks ago. Keep this up and lets hope we can get that high over the uk into the northern latitudes to start some blocking
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    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

    Does Netweather still provide the Ensembles that had Aberdeen, Manchester, London and I think Dublin?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Does Netweather still provide the Ensembles that had Aberdeen, Manchester, London and I think Dublin?

    You could click the map for your location as an alternative:

    Meteociel - Diagrammes ENS GFS nouvelle génération

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

    Cheers for that

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    much prefer the look of the UKMO at 144h compared to the GFS

     

    post-18233-0-58857600-1383154214_thumb.gpost-18233-0-78566100-1383154222_thumb.p

     

    in these charts I have circled the area of interest if you note on the GFS there is LP system over America/Canada where there isn't one on the UKMO

     

    post-18233-0-30299900-1383154232_thumb.gpost-18233-0-33741400-1383154242_thumb.p

     

    now if we roll on in the GFS u can see the LP system where the arrow points and it flattens out the high pressure and kills it getting into Greenland where as on the UKMO we would have better chances of the high pressure affecting the Greenland area.

     

    post-18233-0-42926100-1383154256_thumb.p

     

    will wait and see what the ECM brings us

     

    and wouldn't u know it the ECM gives us a half way house between the UKMO and GFS but that's just models for you lol.

     

    heres all three side by side GFS,ECM and UKMO

     

    post-18233-0-33741400-1383154242_thumb.ppost-18233-0-32151500-1383158025_thumb.gpost-18233-0-30299900-1383154232_thumb.g

     

    if we get more a UKMO pattern we might see a chance of bringing in some blocking and holding off the atlantic

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    My pick of the day unfortunately is a single ensemble member rather than an op, no explanation needed of why.

     

    Posted Image

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

    to add to what CREWECOLD was saying about CFS heres the 12z winter charts

     

    sea level pressure anomalies

     

    Posted Imagecfsnh-4-12-2013.pngPosted Imagecfsnh-4-1-2014.pngPosted Imagecfsnh-4-2-2014.pngPosted Imagecfsnh-4-3-2014.png

     

    temp anomalies

     

    Posted Imagecfsnh-8-12-2013.pngPosted Imagecfsnh-8-1-2014.pngPosted Imagecfsnh-8-2-2014.pngPosted Imagecfsnh-8-3-2014.png

     

    temp anomalies don't look as cold as the charts do I would think the temps would be a little lower

     

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

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