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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

    I really hope these charts come off and that last years huge disappointment doesn't happen again. I remember how annoyed I was last last year when the beast from the east was dead set on arriving then a few days before it was meant to hit, it disappeared.

     

     

    God I remember that, End of Dec? I've never seen such a chart fail in my life. I threw the GFS in the bin for about 6 months after that little episode!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    The old friend of a friend whose dad knows the cleaner at the MetO has started a little earlier this year.Posted Image

    Hey, don't shoot the messenger!

    Anyway, I hope they're on to something!

    Edited by March Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    A relative of my dad's friend, who works for the MetO, apparently reckons "heavy snow" will be a prominent feature of final week of Nov...make of that what you will!

     

     

     

     

    As nice as that sounds, unless I see evidence of it coming out through the model outputs and/or the professional organisations themselves, I'll plant my buttocks firmly on the creaking fence for now...

     

    There does seem to be some sort of pattern change being signaled for the final third of November...but what will that mean for us? God knows!!

    Edited by Chris K
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Still working on the data and stuff for my winter forecast it should be out soon. I've come across something interesting for the remainder of this year.

     

    Climate Simulator which I've used for last years winter forecast and performed great along with predicting above average temperatures in my summer forecast the CET for July was 2.3c above average and 1.1c for August and 0.1c for September.

     

    Anyway looking at the Northern Hemisphere graphs it goes for average temps being below average for the first half but we can expect it to rise towards the end of November and it should continue into December or January.

     

    post-6686-0-36531600-1384117721_thumb.pn

     

    (pink line forecast average dark blue line yearly averages)

     

    Now looking at the actual temperatures being recorded there thanks to NOAA we see temperatures have been below average so far but that red line you see means it is currently rising although it is still below the 1979 to 2008 mean for this time of the year it is on the rise.

     

    post-6686-0-01599000-1384118819_thumb.pn

     

    What does this mean for us? A pattern change to more settled weather for the second half of November, the last time we saw a rise in temperature was mid October a month ago where we entered a settled spell. Does it mean cold weather it could possibly but I would say you can expect an increase in frosts and higher ground parts especially in the North to see an increase in wintry showers. We will have to wait and see but checking the graphs in Climate Simulator it does go for temperatures dropping slightly below average for the end of November.

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Snow on the lakes fells today down to about 200m

     

    I was out on the low fells close to Windermere and there was only a dudtong of snow above about 700m on certain fells namely the Coniston Fells. However, it did look like the NW/West fells appeared to have caught the heaviest showers yesterday. Great End appeared to have a decent cover and Great Gable - so quite plausible ground down to 200m would have seen a cover in and around your neck of the woods. Normally it is the eastern and far eastern fells which hold most snow cover during November - but thanks to no northerlies or easterlies yet, the western fells are getting the most snow so far thanks to the westerly/westnorthwest winds.

     

    Frost lingered on very low ground today in sheltered parts. Shows how at this time of year with a slack pressure pattern and light winds - temps at the surface do really struggle under clear skies, despite the pleasant feel in the wind - today will very much go down as an early winters day in the Lake District.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl

    I but thanks to no northerlies or easterlies yet, the western fells are getting the most snow so far thanks to the westerly/westnorthwest winds.

     

     

     

    The Northern Fells have by far the most snow on down to low levels, none of the western fells have any snow on at all except the very highest as far as i can see - 

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    well the ECM OP 12z run was way out of kilter from the rest of the ensemble so hopefully it was only a blip and we will see better from the 0z

     

    post-18233-0-81353000-1384127249_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    GEFS 18z ensemble for my area still has quite a few going under -5 aswell

     

    post-18233-0-09622300-1384127409_thumb.g

     

    like I said in previous post hopefully just a hiccup from the op runs

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

    Last night extremes from met office

     

    Lowest minimum Katesbridge -5.6 C

                                Newton rigg -4.8 C.

                                Tyndrum -3.8 C.

                                Topcliffe -3.4 C.

                              Drumnodrochit -3.3 C.

                             

                               

                               

     

    lowest maximum temperature carterhouse 4.4 C.

    Highest maximum isle of scilly 13 C.

    Sunniest wattisham 8.5 hours.

    Rainiest culdrose 11.6 mm

    Edited by boywonder
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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    4 frosts in last 7 days. Indtwween low pressure systems. Definitely has become markedly colder of late. Seasons starting to catch up now after a mild autumn.

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    Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

    I have noticed the sunspot numbers are decreasing hopefully this will have an effect and go for a colder winter Posted Image and thats only my personal opinion, just in case people ask for evidencePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    I have noticed the sunspot numbers are decreasing hopefully this will have an effect and go for a colder winter Posted Image and thats only my personal opinion, just in case people ask for evidencePosted Image

    http://www.solarham.net/regions/map.htm

     

    it does seem quieter... whether this means a cold Winter is another matter! Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

    I've been researching in depth the sunspot effect on our weather and there is a definate link to low solar activity and increased northerly blocking. If this month reports less than 127 sunspots we are likley heading back towards solar min but as activity is currently high-moderate I'd doubt we will.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

    Plenty of excitement on the Forecast Forum - all eyes on 20-22nd Nov

     

    There's ALWAYS excitement on the Model Forum. Judging by some of the posts when comparing them to the more measured comments from the non-biased sources, it might be that some are getting a little over excited and ahead of themselves, but we shall see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

    What? It shows 526 dam and -6c upeprs. Hardly a ramp and tbh the first snow is a bit late this year

     

    But it also 168 hours away so hardly set in stone. That said models are looking up for something interesting now early next week. Just keep your fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

    What? It shows 526 dam and -6c upeprs. Hardly a ramp and tbh the first snow is a bit late this year

    168 hours is a long time away to be looking at specifics. I wouldn't get your hopes up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    A nice little tweet from John Hammond via the BBC;

    "Long way off but there are some hints of notably wintry weather developing through next week. John H"

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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    168 is the closest we have got so far. btw it has got closer and closer 168 is just outside relaiable time frame so 2 more days and it is in reliable

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    Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

    168 hours is a long time away to be looking at specifics. I wouldn't get your hopes up.

    Ugh i'm hardly getting my hopes up. Snow will come i'm sure, its pretty much a regular occurance at this time of year.
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Ugh i'm hardly getting my hopes up. Snow will come i'm sure

     

    A 'divide by zero' moment there .. Posted Image

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Smithyweather.....At your age it might seem to be an regular occurance, But there were times in the 80's & 90's when we hardly seen a flake through out the whole of winter.

    Anyway don't let anyone knock your enthusiasm Posted Image  But like Ian Brown said "168 hours is a long time away to be looking at specifics" Wise words Posted Image

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