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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes certainly some of the later charts are showing promise today . just need some upgrades bit by bit each day untill they come into the more reliable range .but for now autumn is the king but knights in winter armour are on the way to do battle .what a tease ECM is, everything juicy as been at the end of its runs now for a while so will it start to firm up this weekend ,Fingers crossed .Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Totally agree with you on that one Feb.....models have been showing tentative signs from time to time of a pattern change very much looming in FI...I think at the moment the models have been toying with different solutions , but something is almost certainly on the horizon... I also think that because heights are expected to rise in the very near future and they keep placing it in different areas... will it rise north up to Greenland, will it rise halfway up mid latitude and get flattened shortly after...will it rise over the uk and end up retrogressing to Greenland or sit over scandi is the million dollar question at this time....either way and whatever the solution, I feel the atlantic express will soon be on the tracks of the polar express..... tickets please Posted Image

     

    Lets hope the headlines start ramping up soon and it turns into the Siberian express.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Some decent Murrmurings, model thread trending good, lets hope it starts to explode in the next couple of days.

    The first roller coaster ride of Winter 2013/14?!
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The first roller coaster ride of Winter 2013/14?!

     

    hope so, I have my doubts of anything potent before xmas, strat just doesn't look like playing ball to me but at least some interest, which cannot be said a week ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Feeling a bit gloomy about the signals at the mo... but to cheer myself up I went and found a chart that shows it is possible to have a strong aleutian high alongside a East US trough and then a greenland high in our local blocking the pattern. It comes from the infamous 1963.

     

    Posted Image

     

    I will add, however, that the vortex was in a bit of a mess and totally depowered. So if the aleutian high is here to stay we really need something to happen in the strat if we are get something exciting happening. With the current wavelengths and that high pressure set to plant itself in situ in the northern pacific it looks like systems firing across the atlantic for a good while yet.

     

    Where's that CW we could do with happening in the next 4 weeks!

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Lets hope the headlines start ramping up soon and it turns into the Siberian express.

    Nooo. We can't let the daily express and daily mail onto it. That will jinx it ;)
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Feeling a bit gloomy about the signals at the mo... but to cheer myself up I went and found a chart that shows it is possible to have a strong aleutian high alongside a East US trough and then a greenland high in our local blocking the pattern. It comes from the infamous 1963.

     

    Posted Image

     

    I will add, however, that the vortex was in a bit of a mess and totally depowered. So if the aleutian high is here to stay we really need something to happen in the strat if we are get something exciting happening. With the current wavelengths and that high pressure set to plant itself in situ in the northern pacific it looks like systems firing across the atlantic for a good while yet.

     

    Where's that CW we could do with happening in the next 4 weeks!

     

    As long as the Aleutian high keeps buckled meridional we have a chance.

    Nooo. We can't let the daily express and daily mail onto it. That will jinx it Posted Image

     

    Oi - I read both those papers,!!! although more because of my political beliefs rather than their meteorological prowess!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    At least its starting to motor tonight anyway, taken its time but hopefully the blue touchpaper that is netweather winter thread will be firmly lit over the next 2 weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    At least its starting to motor tonight anyway, taken its time but hopefully the blue touchpaper that is netweather winter thread will be firmly lit over the next 2 weeks.

    Agreed. Surprised at some of the very negative vibes in the model thread from some. Plenty of more positives over past few days. Slightly more encouraging. Job 1- Block the Atlantic off. Job 2- Mid Atlantic Ridge into Greenland after,Job 3- We need vortex to move towards SiberiaJob 4- Advection cold air towards us from the north or East. Here's to a good winter! Enjoy the ride
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Agreed. Surprised at some of the very negative vibes in the model thread from some. Plenty of more positives over past few days. Slightly more encouraging.Job 1- Block the Atlantic off.Job 2- Mid Atlantic Ridge into Greenland after,Job 3- We need vortex to move towards SiberiaJob 4- Advection cold air towards us from the north or East.Here's to a good winter! Enjoy the ride

     

    Agreed but I still think we need the strat and other tc's to play ball for a sustained blast.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
    Posted · Hidden by Buriedundersnow, November 8, 2013 - wrong chart
    Hidden by Buriedundersnow, November 8, 2013 - wrong chart

    nice to see the ECM was up the warm end of the ensembles for de bilt and some snow spikes showing up for there

     

    post-18233-0-65261500-1383952113_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    both runs today the ECM has been one of the warmest of its ensembles towards the end of the run so must be some good runs in there

     

    post-18233-0-25422600-1383952387_thumb.ppost-18233-0-85352000-1383952392_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    both runs today the ECM has been one of the warmest of its ensembles towards the end of the run so must be some good runs in there

     

    Posted Imageresample_image.pngPosted Image2.png

     

    Agreed but don't forget though that those are De Bilt and are more relevant when an Easterly is the preferred route but a Northerly is the most likely now.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Agreed but don't forget though that those are De Bilt and are more relevant when an Easterly is the preferred route but a Northerly is the most likely now.

     

    Agreed but don't forget though that those are De Bilt and are more relevant when an Easterly is the preferred route but a Northerly is the most likely now.

     

    doesn't much matter for me there both useless for where I am we need an ensemble for scotland

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    doesn't much matter for me there both useless for where I am we need an ensemble for Scotland

     

    They are relevant though for a potential onset of an Easterly, as are any GEFS suites over on wetter for all places East of Britain.

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

    northerlys are the best for me..either that are or a NNW Posted Image

    Edited by Snowmadsam
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Yes you have been in agreement.If I remember correctly my assessment about 4 weeks ago for the period of latter October through November was 'Unsettled, potentially stormy then trending colder as we progress through November'. Well we got the storminess, just need to see the cold materialise now!Now, if we could see a Canadian warming ignite (as coolingclimate has alluded to) then we could steering on course for the projected -AO winter I think we'll see.

    Good luck with the forecast CC. Will be a coup for you if it verifies.
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Good luck with the forecast CC. Will be a coup for you if it verifies.

     

    For sure. I think we need that Canadian Warming shoving the vortex over to Siberia and allowing height rises to our NW. Then we would indeed be in business.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    What is a perturbation

     

    Each Ensemble member is a perturbation.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    GEFS ensemble has quite a few dropping down below -5

     

    post-18233-0-70121200-1383957667_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    doesn't much matter for me there both useless for where I am we need an ensemble for scotland

     

    There you go - not precise but it's for the centre of the central belt.

     

    Posted Image

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