Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[terrier]

Well im pretty new to all this. But think im going to sit back relax and wait for whatever will be will be. Must admit i am a lover of cold and snow. But think im going to have to wait a while yet. Got a funny feeling what from ive seen and read so far that we could be looking at a near normal winter for uk and ireland this winter. Unless of coarse we all go and read a madden forecast. But im sure thats just a copy and paste forecast every single winter   

[Rustynailer]

I noticed from the FAX charts +96hrs that it would not be very nice around Iceland, By the looks of things that is going to be some storm. Glad it is not coming here, they are used to that kind of thing in Iceland. They even miss small volcanic eruptions because of it LoL 

Is this end of Autumn going to remain stormy I wonder.  

[Due South]

I noticed from the FAX charts +96hrs that it would not be very nice around Iceland, By the looks of things that is going to be some storm. Glad it is not coming here, they are used to that kind of thing in Iceland. They even miss small volcanic eruptions because of it LoL 

Is this end of Autumn going to remain stormy I wonder.  

Not for the southeast. Will turn quite warm for us until end of month except 24-26th. a little bit windy around those dates.

[Gavin Hannah]

Here's a FI chart that could be interesting..... (I know I know lol, but it's just a bit of 'hope-casting')

 

 

Notice the elongated HP in the atlantic stretching to Canada. 

 

 

Here it is on the previous run.

 

I could be wrong, but, could be the kind of setup to see HP slide into a favorable position for us in a few weeks time....

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

Liking the clustering on the GEFS.

[Summer Sun]

Longer term update from the met talks of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Nov 2013 to Saturday 7 Dec 2013:

 

Confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather type is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are also more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

[Gavin Hannah]

Longer term update from the met talks of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Nov 2013 to Saturday 7 Dec 2013:

 

Confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather type is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are also more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

 

Kind of ties in with the GFS. Lots of mixed maritime airmass. More blues + greens than oranges + yellows.

[Rustynailer]

Not for the southeast. Will turn quite warm for us until end of month except 24-26th. a little bit windy around those dates.

I hope you are right one big storm is enough for me in a year. 

The rain is heavy right now here, Flooding and landslips are the norm in these parts when the ground is already saturated.

[bluearmy]

Not for the southeast. Will turn quite warm for us until end of month except 24-26th. a little bit windy around those dates.

 

looks decidedly chilly in london around the 20th DS. the 11/12th look to be mild and possibly the 17th. also,  how can you make wind forecasts more than two weeks away ??? 

 

 

 

Liking the clustering on the GEFS.

 

is that a cluster? looks like a single member ................................

Edited November 8, 2013 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

looks decidedly chilly in london around the 20th DS.  how can you make wind forecasts more than two weeks away ??? 

 

is that a cluster? looks like a single member ................................

 

If you look at the graph BA, there is a few that go below -5c, not earth shattering but the same potential as shown in the ECM ens a few runs ago, small number but significant.

[Met4Cast]

What difference does a colder north sea make?

 

Would it mean that there's less energy in the sea, and so less moisture is sucked up to produce snow clouds? 

 

 If that's wrong, please correct me, it was a guess and I'm here to learn 

 

Spot on  

[bluearmy]

If you look at the graph BA, there is a few that go below -5c, not earth shattering but the same potential as shown in the ECM ens a few runs ago, small number but significant.

you dont need to convince me - i've been in the front carriage since wednesday morning !

[stewfox]

What difference does a colder north sea make?

 

Would it mean that there's less energy in the sea, and so less moisture is sucked up to produce snow clouds? 

 

 If that's wrong, please correct me, it was a guess and I'm here to learn 

 

I see you haven't had a response and my attempt wont be as good as others.

 

You can always post the general question here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/69-learners-area/

[Summer Sun]

The NASA model is one which has just started to appear a various forums so its reliability is unknown however it correctly predicted Octobers weather which was warmer and wetter than normal

 

So for winter Octobers update is showing it to come in no lower than -0.5c below average (if it did it would be pretty similar to last winter which was -0.4c below average)

 

 

Rainfall is shown to be pretty much on average for the UK

 

 

Like I said this is a new model for many of us so I have no idea what time of the month it roughly updates so its going to be a case of keeping an eye on it to see when Novembers update comes in

[Ian Brown]

Some thing for coldies to cling on to from Matt Hugo on twitter

 

I don't have any faith in these long range models - Matt Hugo was posting every week last Nov/Dec about the ECM 32 dayer showing +ve height anomalies around Greenland which never materialised and the colder spells from Jan onwards came from a different set-up.

[Buriedundersnow]

What difference does a colder north sea make?

 

Would it mean that there's less energy in the sea, and so less moisture is sucked up to produce snow clouds? 

 

 If that's wrong, please correct me, it was a guess and I'm here to learn 

 

 

yes it can hurt to have lower sea temps as there is less energy to give back plus I am sure the lower the sea temps are then u need lower 850hpa temps its something to do with the amount of difference u need between the two to produce the precipitation.

[UV-RAY]

I don't have any faith in these long range models - Matt Hugo was posting every week last Nov/Dec about the ECM 32 dayer showing +ve height anomalies around Greenland which never materialised and the colder spells from Jan onwards came from a different set-up.

Indeed Ian, in fact it became a standing joke last winter  though to be fair to Matt he can only comment on what they are showing.

[Ian Brown]

Indeed Ian, in fact it became a standing joke last winter  though to be fair to Matt he can only comment on what they are showing.

 

That's right, I think the most interesting update is the METO, although stressing uncertainty, calling for the possibility of below average temps at the end of Nov/Early Dec. They must have seen something to believe that conventional zonality could possibly be off the table for a while.

[Buriedundersnow]

more of the UK and western Europe going blue on this chart

 

 

and for anyone looking at all the red thinking 'oh no' then here is the temp charts theres still cold air out to the east

 

[Gavin Hannah]

more of the UK and western Europe going blue on this chart

 

gfsanom_eu.png

 

and for anyone looking at all the red thinking 'oh no' then here is the temp charts theres still cold air out to the east

 

gfssr_eu.pnggfsnorm_eu.png

 

It is often quite disconcerting to see all that red lol. But then I have to remind myself that the colors are representative of anomalies and not actual temperature lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

It is often quite disconcerting to see all that red lol. But then I have to remind myself that the colors are representative of anomalies and not actual temperature lol.

 

another thing to remember is it wouldn't be too bad at the higher altitudes to see oranges over scandi, I know in this case they are 2m temps but a lot of the charts posted are 850mb and 500mb charts.

[Snowman.]

A March 2013 Easterly would do me. Was utter rubbish for this area due to the colder North Sea, had it been a few months earlier though, much of the country would have been buried (I know some were)

I was caught in a stream of showers for the entire day, never seen such high drifts!

[forecaster]

I noticed today that the newest EC seasonal run has done a fairly dramatic flip in ditching the signal for northern blocking over winter, and going for higher than normal heights across the temperature Atlantic, just to our south, and lower than normal heights to our north. Now looks very similar to the MetO seasonal forecast from a few weeks ago. 

[boywonder]

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Cairngorm/snow-report

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=536755056418017&l=3969565efd

 

Cairngorm upper slopes have 40 cm of Snow and a had a windchill of -25 C.

[NorthernRab]

It seems only the usual suspects in Scotland(Braemar,Altnaharra,dalwhinnie,Aboyne,Kinbrace)are experiencing below freezing temperatures.

 

? It was -4'C here a few nights ago, all the Scottish cities have thus far experienced below freezing temperatures.

Edited November 8, 2013 by NorthernRab