Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[tight isobar]

Nice progression for latter part November,showing It's hand on various output.blocking begining to at least take a possible hand....

[feb1991blizzard]

Chiono has it spot on in the MOD thread, unlikely to be a 2010 style first half of winter but that doesn't preclude short stonking snow events, especially for the North, Nov / Dec 2010 unlikely but Dec 1990 perfectly possible.

 

 

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Round 2 of the potential December Beast from the East coming, or perhaps the November Northerly of epic proportions  this time without fail?!

[smithyweather]

Chiono has it spot on in the MOD thread, unlikely to be a 2010 style first half of winter but that doesn't preclude short stonking snow events, especially for the North, Nov / Dec 2010 unlikely but Dec 1990 perfectly possible.

So could you or somebody else please tell me the bars about the cold? Is it going to get cold next week or the week after and how cold? We have already had 6c maxes so it would need to be about 1 or 2c to be anything exciting.

I find it hard to gage on the model thread because theres so many conflicting views.

Edited November 7, 2013 by smithyweather

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Round 2 of the potential December Beast from the East coming, or perhaps the November Northerly of epic proportions this time without fail?!

After last winters non eventful easterlys i would rather have northerlys here imby easterlys are crap here

[smithyweather]

After last winters non eventful easterlys i would rather have northerlys here imby easterlys are crap here

Have to agree. Northernlys always deliver snow here.

[feb1991blizzard]

So could you or somebody else please tell me the bars about the cold? Is it going to get cold next week or the week after and how cold? We have already had 6c maxes so it would need to be about 1 or 2c to be anything exciting.I find it hard to gage on the model thread because theres so many conflicting views.

 

Only a prediction so don't come back on and have a go at me if it goes wrong but no low level snow of any note for your area for next 7-10 days and probably no heavy falls for next 15-20 days although im not up on climate of limavady so limited knowledge in that respect, I can see why you want Northerlys but I prefer Easterlies, always have done and always will do, the only time I will  change my mind on that is if I move to Liverpool, Blackpool, Preston or West Cumbria or Wales or Cornwall.

[smithyweather]

Yes so you think its actually going to become winterlike then? I.e 2/3c and snow showers in two weeks time? (Mid month)

Edited November 7, 2013 by smithyweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes so you think its actually going to become winterlike then? I.e 2/3c and snow showers in two weeks time? (Mid month)

 

Not exactly, humble opinion with a bit of guesswork but a brief colder spell end of month is what I am going for, no brutal cold before xmas.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

After last winters non eventful easterlys i would rather have northerlys here imby easterlys are crap here

Really, I'd have thought Easterlies wouldnt be bad up Skeg! A Northeasterly is good for me with the Wash coming into play to set up a streamer. I have known Skeggy to get loads of continuous snow on a Northerly, then 20 miles inland not a flake at all !! I remember someone saying Skeg is a whiteout, and I was like eh??!! 

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Really, I'd have thought Easterlies wouldnt be bad up Skeg! A Northeasterly is good for me with the Wash coming into play to set up a streamer. I have known Skeggy to get loads of continuous snow on a Northerly, then 20 miles inland not a flake at all !! I remember someone saying Skeg is a whiteout, and I was like eh??!!

Yes Notherlys are good for snow here esp nov 2010 but i think that was northeasterly we had fair bit snow end of nov that year

[Yarmy]

Yes Notherlys are good for snow here esp nov 2010 but i think that was northeasterly we had fair bit snow end of nov that year

How did you do mid Dec 09? Epic here, but I think the angle of attack may have meant you missed out?

[feb1991blizzard]

For the East coast it all depends on where the stream sets up.

[Met4Cast]

A March 2013 Easterly would do me. Was utter rubbish for this area due to the colder North Sea, had it been a few months earlier though, much of the country would have been buried (I know some were)

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

A March 2013 Easterly would do me. Was utter rubbish for this area due to the colder North Sea, had it been a few months earlier though, much of the country would have been buried (I know some were)

 

What difference does a colder north sea make?

 

Would it mean that there's less energy in the sea, and so less moisture is sucked up to produce snow clouds? 

 

 If that's wrong, please correct me, it was a guess and I'm here to learn 

[syed2878]

if dec 90 is possible then i'm looking forward to c what might be unfolding for dec 2013.

[boywonder]

Last nights Extremes from Met office:

 

Lowest minimum Aboyne -3.8 C.

Lowest maximum Aviemore 5.1 C.

Rainiest Dunstaffnage 33mm

Sunniest Boulmer 7.5 Hours

Highest Maximum Cardiff bute Park 12.9 C.

[Mark Neal.]

Chilly start here and 3rd frost in a week, slowly we are seeing signs of winter. More and more interesting scenarios being thrown up in the model suites. A pattern change coming one way or another.

The SST's in December would be likely to be warmer in the North Sea than March as the sea temperature cools down, the bigger difference in cold uppers and a milder sea can lead to some big convection which would be in the form of snow showers if uppers were conductive. That's why March 2013 easterly branded a fail by most, and December 2009/2010 delivered for many easterners.

[boywonder]

It seems only the usual suspects in Scotland(Braemar,Altnaharra,dalwhinnie,Aboyne,Kinbrace)are experiencing below freezing temperatures.

Edited November 8, 2013 by boywonder

[Summer Sun]

Some thing for coldies to cling on to from Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Latest EC32 showing signs of an Atlantic ridge longer term, with perhaps a colder N or NW'ly type across the UK final third of Nov.

 

All 00Z ensemble models (GFS, NAEFS, GEM) showing this; higher pressure to the W, lower to the E = colder N or NW'ly

[MPG]

Some thing for coldies to cling on to from Matt Hugo on twitter

Ha. Funny how Matt Hugo said there was no cold showing in any modelling the other day. He changes his mind as much as the models!

[Summer Sun]

Ha. Funny how Matt Hugo said there was no cold showing in any modelling the other day. He changes his mind as much as the models!

 

He was talking about winter its self though the other day wasn't he? (December to Feb) and not November?

 

His reply I'm assuming its to you on twitter says

 

Not confident no, not that that range. It wouldn't provide a persistent change either, just variability away from zonal.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Richard2901]

After last winters non eventful easterlys i would rather have northerlys here imby easterlys are crap here

 

Completely agree with this. The easterlies of last January and March were rubbish for my location as well.

 

Grey, miserable and temperatures barely below freezing. In January in the outskirts of the city I had a snow cover for 2 weeks but only a few days exceeded 5cm and most of the city saw rain or sleet, even under -10C uppers, that meant many days during the fortnight had no cover except in the outskirts.

 

I had only 9 air frosts in January - the same as in the mild westerly January of 2008 and much less than in January 2009 which was milder and snowless.

 

March had only one heavy fall of 12cm that completely melted within 24 hours and the whole 2nd half of the month had nothing that lasted more than a few hours on the ground. It was just raw, grey and horrible. Even inland had far less than what we had on the coast from the northerly in March 2006.

 

A winter like 2001/02 where there was one decent northerly over Christmas and New Year but the rest of the winter mild and extremely boring would be a vast improvement on last years unsatisfactory offering.

[MP-R]

Almost winterlike here today - 6C and persistently raining.

[feb1991blizzard]

Stinker!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013110806&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

 

Its like that all the way down im afraid.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013110806&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

Edited November 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard