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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Sleet is better than rain in my book :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    GFS 18z would bring snow to parts of northern UK during mid November.

     

    Yes but it wouldn't last very long, anyway scrub my last post completely, they aren't that good at all, the good thing about GFS and GEFS FI though, is you always know that tomorrow mornings another day and they change like the wind along with snow enthusiasts minds.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Yes but it wouldn't last very long, anyway scrub my last post completely, they aren't that good at all, the good thing about GFS and GEFS FI though, is you always know that tomorrow mornings another day and they change like the wind along with snow enthusiasts minds.

    Do you think you could keep this up for the entire winter then Posted Image

    I would go mental so I will be sticking to within 7 days, whilst the ECM does go out to day 10, it's 8-10 day stuff has been as unreliable as the GFS at times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    You know winter isn't far away when.......... you actually dissect every GEFS member all the way through and look at every ECM postage stamp, view every NOAA H500 anomaly chart, and every ECM strat update at 7 in the morning, not quite doing all those things yet but not far off!


    Do you think you could keep this up for the entire winter then Posted Image

    I would go mental so I will be sticking to within 7 days, whilst the ECM does go out to day 10, it's 8-10 day stuff has been as unreliable as the GFS at times.

     

    Well I did last year, and baring in mind last season lasted from Oct to April, its all come around so quick again, seems like the closed season only lasted a few months this year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    You know Winter isn't far away when....

    It's November 31st.

    Edited by Barry95
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    GFS 18z would bring snow to parts of northern UK during mid November.

     

    Op an outlier in the timeframes it would bring wintry PPN anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    It was a short break this year. Saw some sleet in May so it was only 3 months without winter talk!

    I think we forget that pre 2008 it was very rare to see any widespread snow before December. A typical winter will see the first wintry showers in. The north towards the end of November. I suspect this winter may be a more typical British winter. Hopefully still with a few good dumps of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    It was a short break this year. Saw some sleet in May so it was only 3 months without winter talk!I think we forget that pre 2008 it was very rare to see any widespread snow before December. A typical winter will see the first wintry showers in. The north towards the end of November. I suspect this winter may be a more typical British winter. Hopefully still with a few good dumps of snow.

    You are obviously a young 'un!
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    You know Winter isn't far away when....It's November 31st.

    ......the date that doesn't exist ;-)
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Got a nice frost this morning and car all iced up.....not bad from a very inocuous set up

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    You are obviously a young 'un!

    31 so I'll take that as a compliment :) I know pre 90s snow was more common in November but in the last few years I think we have been a spoilt
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    ......the date that doesn't exist ;-)

     

    I failed there Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Accuweather going for a warmer than average winter for most of Europe with less snow for most areas

     

    Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

    According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

     

    Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities City Amount (Inches)

     

    Moscow 40-50 (101.60cm to 127cm)

     

    Berlin 3-6 (7.6cm to 15.24cm)

     

    London 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Paris 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Rome 0

     

    The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February. "Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

     

    Looks like there going for an average UK winter then Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    Accuweather going for a warmer than average winter for most of Europe with less snow for most areas

     

    Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

    According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

     

    Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities City Amount (Inches)

     

    Moscow 40-50 (101.60cm to 127cm)

     

    Berlin 3-6 (7.6cm to 15.24cm)

     

    London 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Paris 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Rome 0

     

    The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February. "Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

    That reads like record breaking winter warmth with those snowfall totals for cities. Anyway, those snowfall predictions are absolutely pathetic and not based on any science what so ever......just a guess.

    Edited by MPG
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Accuweather going for a warmer than average winter for most of Europe with less snow for most areas

     

    Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

    According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

     

    Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities City Amount (Inches)

     

    Moscow 40-50 (101.60cm to 127cm)

     

    Berlin 3-6 (7.6cm to 15.24cm)

     

    London 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Paris 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Rome 0

     

    The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February. "Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

     

    Funny that. I'm expecting the most severely cold spell of the winter to occur 2nd half of January. Couldn't disagree with this forecast more tbh. We'll see.

     

    P.s current CFS run spectacularly blocked December through to April.

     

    Can't stop! On my dinner break!

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Accuweather going for a warmer than average winter for most of Europe with less snow for most areas

     

    Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII Olympic Winter Games.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.

    According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant effect on temperatures and precipitation."

     

    Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities City Amount (Inches)

     

    Moscow 40-50 (101.60cm to 127cm)

     

    Berlin 3-6 (7.6cm to 15.24cm)

     

    London 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Paris 1-2 (2.5cm to 5.0cm)

     

    Rome 0

     

    The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February. "Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

     

    that just looks like a bog standard west QBO forecast they have put out plus they are calling for wetter January and February is that not when we are most likely looking at an SSW this year.

     

    if its progging 1-2 inches for London then we are likely to see more snow up here so maybe 4-6 inches here.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    4-6 inches is absolutely nothing. For a good winter your looking at 30 inches.

     

    4-6 inches is still better than a huge kick in the teeth though

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    4-6 inches is still better than a huge kick in the teeth though

     

    Don't worry. I think you'll be getting more than 4-6 inches!

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    to add to what CREWECOLD was saying about CFS heres the 12z winter charts

     

    sea level pressure anomalies

     

    post-18233-0-05506300-1383144242_thumb.ppost-18233-0-81210900-1383144247_thumb.ppost-18233-0-67386800-1383144253_thumb.ppost-18233-0-67102900-1383144259_thumb.p

     

    temp anomalies

     

    post-18233-0-29750300-1383144336_thumb.ppost-18233-0-73773700-1383144343_thumb.ppost-18233-0-75685600-1383144359_thumb.ppost-18233-0-02581300-1383144367_thumb.p

     

    temp anomalies don't look as cold as the charts do I would think the temps would be a little lower

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    For those that want to compare auucweather's winter forecasts here is the 2012 / 2013 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

     

    And the 2011 / 2012 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-europe/56653

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    For those that want to compare auucweather's winter forecasts here is the 2012 / 2013 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

     

    And the 2011 / 2012 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-europe/56653

    i think over all it is going to be a stormy average to above average across the whole winter.

    certainly a totally different set up this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    For those that want to compare auucweather's winter forecasts here is the 2012 / 2013 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

     

    And the 2011 / 2012 one

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-europe/56653

     

     

    I think we should all pitch in to send u to Australia for the winter months Posted Image

     

     your too much of a buzz kill Posted Image lol

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    LRF,s made this early showing defined areas with defined outcomes,...most always end with egg/eggs on ones face...I know whom I'm hedging my bets with this season...

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