Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Snowfan1978]

Moscow was just as warm in 2010 this time of year. This year beat it by 0.3°.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00220101101.gif

Yes I remember reading about the Moscow heatwave of 2010, I even wondered at the time if that was the "calm before the winter storm" - and of course it was...........

Edited November 7, 2013 by Snowfan1978

[Snowynorth]

I know we have a lot of factors to include for this winter but it seems we have a tripole set up growing, which i believe has a big influence on our winter!!!

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

[Buriedundersnow]

I know we have a lot of factors to include for this winter but it seems we have a tripole set up growing, which i believe has a big influence on our winter!!!

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

 

 

yes it does look like something may be setting up in the atlantic

 

your better using these charts there a lot better to make out than the other ones

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.7.2013.gif

[Buriedundersnow]

the one thing to take from this mornings runs if its cold you are looking for is the GEFS ensemble charts and notice both the 0z and the 6z both have a lot of members at the end clustering near the colder side of the mean

 

 

not a huge step towards cold but small steps at this stage can all add up down the line

Edited November 7, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[cheeky_monkey]

this is how I would read they charts and how I would see the east of Canada still being cold with a Greenland high in place

 

the chart I commented on

 

t2m_anom_2013_3_seasonal_masked.gif

 

the one from the previous page that shows it better

 

BYVTORWCUAAsQX_.jpg

Not so Dec 2010 was a classic example as was Feb 47 where a Greenland high will bring very mild south easterly Atlantic winds across eastern Canada..both months were extremely cold across western Europe and extremely mild across eastern Canada..also those charts would if the High pressure is where you show it produce extremely cold conditions across Europe Scandinavia and Russia but they show no such anomaly..so to me its shows a continental high across central Europe forcing warm winds over the top of Scandinavia into northern Russia and the arctic..hence the  dark oranges and reds in those areas.

[SE Blizzards]

CFS still beating that same old blocking drum...

 

 

[MPG]

yes it does look like something may be setting up in the atlantic

 

your better using these charts there a lot better to make out than the other ones

 

anomnight_11_7_2013.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.7.2013.gif

There is a lot less cold water in the Atlantic mid section than the previous update on the 4th Nov. This may just be variation.

[BornFromTheVoid]

yes it does look like something may be setting up in the atlantic

 

your better using these charts there a lot better to make out than the other ones

 

anomnight_11_7_2013.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.7.2013.gif

 

This version of the unisys maps works well too

 

[Summer Sun]

The NASA seasonal model from its October update is going for a slightly below average winter around 0.5c below this is mainly due to it forecasting a cold February, December is fairly mild, January closer to average and February below average

Edited November 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[forecaster]

There is a lot less cold water in the Atlantic mid section than the previous update on the 4th Nov. This may just be variation.

 

I don't think there is anything too exciting in the sub-surface. Those anomalies should become apparent nearer the surface as time goes by, so perhaps we'll end up with a pretty vague SST pattern in the end....

[Catacol]

Not so Dec 2010 was a classic example as was Feb 47 where a Greenland high will bring very mild south easterly Atlantic winds across eastern Canada..both months were extremely cold across western Europe and extremely mild across eastern Canada..also those charts would if the High pressure is where you show it produce extremely cold conditions across Europe Scandinavia and Russia but they show no such anomaly..so to me its shows a continental high across central Europe forcing warm winds over the top of Scandinavia into northern Russia and the arctic..hence the  dark oranges and reds in those areas.

 

I dont think Euro High - that would promote above average for UK and France. I see that chart as low pressure over Greenland with a recurring mid atlantic / UK high. It's a 3 month average chart so pretty bloody useless to be honest, but that would account for the very high temp anomaly off the east coast of Greenland as well as the US/Canada pattern and the warm scandy. Temps over Europe then average on average... as the high waxes and wanes and we get caught between alternating NW and SW episodes.

 

I've said it several times - early winter will see any cold for us come from the NW mainly, possibly N. Mid Jan onwards I can see more in the way of blocking and that block shifting either to sit over the UK as a boring omega or, if we are lucky, up to Scandy. Best chance for cold for me is a Scandy High in February therefore.

 

At this range it is all guesswork really. My eyes are on the pacific high, hoping for some wave disruption, and also the sun. The sun has been mostly moderate to high recently. Normally that would depress me as it promotes a strong jet - but some recent posts from more skilled members than I have actually suggested that in +QBO years we need a strongish sun in order to get an impact in the Stratosphere. So perhaps an outside chance of a recurrent pacific high and decent solar signal promoting a mid winter warming that might add to the potency of any late Jan / Feb cold.

[Methuselah]

I'm betting that whenever it happens, whenever a cold pattern sets up, it'll take both humans and computers by surprise. Notwithstanding those who will inevitably claim to have predicted it x-number-of-months in advance. 

[March Blizzard]

I'm betting that whenever it happens, whenever a cold pattern sets up, it'll take both humans and computers by surprise. Notwithstanding those who will inevitably claim to have predicted it x-number-of-months in advance.

Can computers be surprised? AI must be getting better!

[SE Blizzards]

Have to say that the Ens look pretty good this afternoon. Quite a few go with height rises around the Greenland area in FI. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=336&size=

 

Note: Of course, the link above may look different once the 18Z ens are out later this evening.

Edited November 7, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[bluearmy]

Have to say that the Ens look pretty good this afternoon. Nothing spectacularly cold, but quite a few go with height rises around the Greenland area in FI. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=336&size=

 

Note: Of course, the link above may look different once the 18Z ens are out later this evening.

 

look at that page on the hemispheric plot a few days later .......................................  that looks spectacular to me, given how strong the vortex looks/looked like getting.

[Buriedundersnow]

slowly trending colder all day

 

 

12z a massive outlier as well

Edited November 7, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm betting that whenever it happens, whenever a cold pattern sets up, it'll take both humans and computers by surprise. Notwithstanding those who will inevitably claim to have predicted it x-number-of-months in advance. 

 

To be fair though some people have made predictions, just for fun of course but based on analysis in the expert threads / websites, I have nailed my colours to the mast on my signature, will add CET exact predictions on 30th November at around 11pm as always.

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like James madden forecast is going well so far for cooling down.

[Boro Snow]

Oooooo mate you can't mention that name in here lol

[Skullzrulerz]

Oooooo mate you can't mention that name in here lol

And why is that? Guess (He does weird forecast omg 1000+Year cold winter)???

[Barry12]

Looks like James madden forecast is going well so far for cooling down.

 

He forecasted severe cold and heavy snow as we progress through November, not just a 'cool down'

Edited November 7, 2013 by Barry95

[johnholmes]

latest ENSO output for 2013-2014

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

as for Mr Madden and someone above suggesting his prediction is going according to plan!

What plan?

Which part of the UK has had severe cold and snow yet?

Edited November 7, 2013 by johnholmes

[Skullzrulerz]

He forecasted severe cold and heavy snow as we progress through November, not just a 'cool down'

We will find out soon...

[radiohead]

He forecasted severe cold and heavy snow as we progress through November, not just a 'cool down'

 

I'm looking forward to see if his forecast of ice floes being visible along the coast verifies....

 

That's not a joke by the way, that's actually in his forecast.

[johnholmes]

meanwhile in the land of reality what is there to suggest this-anything anyone please?