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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Lowest Minimums According to Met office Last night.

 

Dalwhinnie -6.1 C.

Tulloch bridge -6.1 C.

Redesdale camp -5.2 C.

Loch Glascarnoch -4.9 C.

Tyndrum -4.9 C.

Braemar -4.4 C

Kibrace -4.3 C.

Altnaharra -4.3 C.

 

Lowest in wales was balla with 3.2 C..No below freezing point for wales which is surprising at this stage.

Edited by boywonder
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Matt Hugo has posted his thoughts for winter here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2827853

 

Excuse the 'rambling' nature of this post but I have now certainly falling into a specific category regarding this winter and that is for it to be nothing special...

Edited by Summer Sun
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maybe because not all of use like cold few just prefer mild

 

 

 

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

Edited by JK1
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Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

 

I have posted colder forecast's but not many seem to popping up currently, a fair few seem to be leaning towards an average or mild winter

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maybe because not all of use like cold few just prefer mild

 

 

 

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

 

plus the fact it gives a nice balance to all the cold solutions that are endlessly rolled out

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there are some people of us tht like mild weathr

 

maybe because not all of use like cold, we all have are own likes

 

But surely that's just grasping at straws, it's winter it's supposed to be cold you have the warmth from late April until the end of October. Time for us coldies to get our fair share of preferred weather surely? :) 

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I would advise some to take a look at the meto further updates..as advised confidence in any weather type steeps away strongly, as we deepen Nov/ early dec.with, no great signals on the table,(yes) certain telecon ie QBO etc I think some suprises may await.It's that knife edge for me.!!!

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An overall positive trending AO for winter has in previous winters also included periods of negative AO.

So all is certainly not lost. That said we could do with an SSW again this/early next year after a period of staring at a rampant vortex.

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Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

In defence  of SS he does post colder options when they are evident, of course he posts more mild ones out of preference but how many of us do exactly the same with cold charts.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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In defence  of SS he does post colder options when they are evident, of course he posts more mild ones out of preference but how many of us do exactly the same with cold charts.

 

True!! I never post about warmer charts or solutions so you have a point!

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But surely that's just grasping at straws, it's winter it's supposed to be cold you have the warmth from late April until the end of October. Time for us coldies to get our fair share of preferred weather surely? :)

Given our temperate climate here in the UK, I'd suggest it's supposed to be mild in the winter.
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Met office response to the winter story Daily Express today  Curtsey of Ian Fergusson on Twitter

Met office response to the winter story Daily Express today  Curtsey of Ian Fergusson on Twitter

....I hope this eases, the fragility on both parts, It's a case of suck it and see atm.it goes either way or directly down the middle as things stand.no clear indications.
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Liking that NASA forecast. Well above 2m temps in the Greenland local, indicative of higher pressure with WAA on the Western Greenland side of an Atlantic ridge with CAA on the UK side.

Whilst I see no early signs of a prolonged winter spell, i think we will be looking for Northerlies for our snow this Winter rather than Easterlies.

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I also found this from Joe B's twitter....this is the NASA winter forecast...

 

I'd like to know how good the model is. Unfortunately it seems Joe B favours posting cold outcomes. 

 

OK it looks like he posted the raw output. If you look at the one with the masking (i.e. removed anomalies where the expected skill is too low) it looks much more bland:

 

Posted Image

Edited by forecaster
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I'd like to know how good the model is. Unfortunately it seems Joe B favours posting cold outcomes. 

 

OK it looks like he posted the raw output. If you look at the one with the masking (i.e. removed anomalies where the expected skill is too low) it looks much more bland:

 

Posted Image

 

still looking blocked Posted Image

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