Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

so..end of winter predictions on oct 30th, and some obese robins..whats next ??

 

are the plump robins now too fat to fly..what could it mean ?.

 

...the dawn of a new ice age!  Lol 

 

                                                       ....perhaps!!! 

[Boro Snow]

so..end of winter predictions on oct 30th, and some obese robins..whats next ??

 

are the plump robins now too fat to fly..what could it mean ?.

They will be very vulnerable from cat attacks 

[Polar Maritime]

http://vimeo.com/m/78573512

Winter has started in the Lakeland Fells.. vid does not want to upload from phone. Type in Helvellyn start of winter, at Vimeo.com.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Jimmyh]

i have to beg for a frost as i am sick of this rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[carinthian]

General long term weather prediction and numerical data supplied show an interesting picture emerge during the fist part of winter and into the January period. After this current phase of maritime mobility ceases,a substantial rise of pressure seems likely. Depending on the exact position of the high pressure system flow, cold air from the Northeast or milder air from the west have at this moment in time an equal chance of dominating early/mid winter weather.

This forecast is supplied for the Eastern Alpine region, but should give an indication of weather type expected over West Europe as well. 

As i read it a much drier start to winter season seems probable, but no certainty yet whether it will be cold or mild.

 

C

[Summer Sun]

Not such a blocked run from CFS this morning

 

 

 

For the 3 winter months only February has blocking

 

 

 

A fairly mild December especially in the SE

 

 

Average January away from Scotland and western Ireland

 

 

Slightly below average February for England (south west England at average), wales and all of Ireland

 

Edited November 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Why is that a poor choice of words?

 

I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree with regard to Landscheidt. I can only base my perception of him on his predictions, which didn't turn out so well as far as I can see, even the 1600s climate by 2030 is next to impossible. When it comes to the intricacies of solar dynamics, I doubt either are qualified enough to analyse decades of solar research say if someone was light years ahead of their time.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event"."Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

 

 

Now that is a poor projection....and if that is what science says...well 

Now is climate of 1600s really impossible by 2030? 

 

BFTP

Edited November 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gael_Force]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24817487

 

 

Doctors are worried too. Bernadette Garrihy, of the College of Emergency Medicine, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Tuesday that staff were preparing for "what may be our worst winter yet".

"We have got severe weather problems on the way, increased incidence of respiratory tract infections - things like winter vomiting bugs - we know that this puts our departments under huge pressure."

 

 

I wonder if they have been reading the Express, subscribing to Madden or some other source for their winter LRF.

[Mountain Snow]

http://vimeo.com/m/78573512Winter has started in the Lakeland Fells.. vid does not want to upload from phone. Type in Helvellyn start of winter, at Vimeo.com.

Must have been up there very early, not a soul in sight!

[cheeky_monkey]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24817487

 

 

 

I wonder if they have been reading the Express, subscribing to Madden or some other source for their winter LRF.

They probably just mean the weather is much more chaotic during the winter months...can cause lots of accidents..there are increased incidents of illness during the winter months..doesn't necessarily have anything to do with prolonged cold or snow

[stewfox]

UK cooler than normal at begining of november.

 

 

GFS analysis - CFSR reanalysis, 1981-2010 base period.

http://meteomodel.pl/BLOG/?page_id=6628

 

In need , feels more like November out there. Although there is quite a contrasts between southern coasts and them there 'upnorth'

 

May have to get my coat out soon !

[BornFromTheVoid]

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

 

 

Now that is a poor projection....and if that is what science says...well 

Now is climate of 1600s really impossible by 2030? 

 

BFTP

 

Wouldn't mind seeing the whole quote for context, given the media and others tendency to misrepresent climate scientists.

I note, which you didn't mention, Dr Viner also said this

 

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

 

Here's the whole Telegraph piece http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

 

Doesn't seem too far off. Despite the odd snowy winter, the long term trends is for them to become less snowy.

 

As for a 1600s climate occurring within 17 years, barring some cataclysmic event, I'd say impossible. The predictions for low solar activity in the early 90s and subsequent dramatic cooling were also wrong. Numerous studies have indicated and even a grand minimum scenario would only slow the warming over the next century.

 

As for what the science says, I'd say examine the peer reviewed evidence, not the tabloid interviews

[UV-RAY]

Wouldn't mind seeing the whole quote for context, given the media and others tendency to misrepresent climate scientists.

I note, which you didn't mention, Dr Viner also said this

 

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

 

Here's the whole Telegraph piece http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

 

Doesn't seem too far off. Despite the odd snowy winter, the long term trends is for them to become less snowy.

 

As for a 1600s climate occurring within 17 years, barring some cataclysmic event, I'd say impossible. The predictions for low solar activity in the early 90s and subsequent dramatic cooling were also wrong. Numerous studies have indicated and even a grand minimum scenario would only slow the warming over the next century.

 

As for what the science says, I'd say examine the peer reviewed evidence, not the tabloid interviews

The peer reviewed stuff isn't always infallible  though is it, as for  declaring  a grand minima would only slow warming, well that's one of them assumptions again. Lets wait and see what does happen first, then  we can comment!

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The peer reviewed stuff isn't always infallible  though is it, as for  declaring  a grand minima would only slow warming, well that's one of them assumptions again. Lets wait and see what does happen first, then  we can comment!

 

Certainly not infallible, but it helps to raise research standard and cut out bias and hyperbole.

Nope, not an assumption. A prediction based on the evidence, understanding and analysis of many experts, quite different to an assumption. Whether it's completely accurate or not, I think we'll agree, only time will tell.

Anywho, off to the climate and environment area with anymore of this methinks!

[Buriedundersnow]

Not such a blocked run from CFS this morning

 

 

 

For the 3 winter months only February has blocking

 

 

 

A fairly mild December especially in the SE

 

 

Average January away from Scotland and western Ireland

 

 

Slightly below average February for England (south west England at average), wales and all of Ireland

 

 

 

the only good thing about this post is we haven't seen more like it in the past while which means there must have been more blocking charts than ones that show mild muck

[UV-RAY]

Certainly not infallible, but it helps to raise research standard and cut out bias and hyperbole.

Nope, not an assumption. A prediction based on the evidence, understanding and analysis of many experts, quite different to an assumption. Whether it's completely accurate or not, I think we'll agree, only time will tell.

Anywho, off to the climate and environment area with anymore of this methinks!

It'a still an assumption BFTV, agree with the rest of your post.

[UV-RAY]

the only good thing about this post is we haven't seen more like it in the past while which means there must have been more blocking charts than ones that show mild muck

A few weeks ago milder options were becoming more frequent, however in the last week it appears the colder options are now returning in frequency and potency again. It's a tough call this year with no clear cut signals, I think it really could go either way this winter.

[Buriedundersnow]

A few weeks ago milder options were becoming more frequent, however in the last week it appears the colder options are now returning in frequency and potency again. It's a tough call this year with no clear cut signals, I think it really could go either way this winter.

 

i'm still holding on to the belief that we will see a decent winter with some snow events about just how good and how much snow will be the thing though but law of averages from the last few winters would say at least one decent snow event.

[feb1991blizzard]

Someone had already posted them on the MOD, I looked at the colour code on the graph and picked the right ones first up, usually I have a couple of goes before getting the right one but the bright pink and bright green are very distinctive!

[Summer Sun]

12z CFS now out again not much blocking around December and January, February sees the high sitting over Scandinavia

 

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

We all know how things can change at the flip of a hat, just look at last March and December 09/10.

All to play for, with 3 weeks left of Autumn still to go yet.

[Buriedundersnow]

small piece of hope from this mornings runs was the end frame of the ECM

 

 

even the mean has a ridge there which means quite a few of the ensemble must have some sort of ridge there aswell

 

 

even the GEFS mean has a smaller feature there so maybe a few on there going for a ridge

 

 

will just have to see if the ridging comes to anything or just flattens.

 

huge straw clutch I know but its all we have just now.

 

charts not showing up on post but they are there just click on the blank space.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Mark Neal.]

12z CFS now out again not much blocking around December and January, February sees the high sitting over Scandinavia

 

Yesterday's 12z run Gavin! However the charts apart from february don't show much blocking, so your right what you say.

 

However caution is required this were the same charts, which a few weeks ago were showing a +heights profile through much of the N.Hempisphere that soon was dropped. The CFS, does chop and change. Best thing is what BFTV has been doing, looking at each runs and then looking over a period of time for those that are supporting blocking and weight it up against those who don't support the idea...

 

It certainly feels more seasonal now, however still no sign of prolonged cold, or regular frosts. Nice to see the Highlands and Scotland see more of the wintry mix!

 

Roll on wintry times ! 

[Polar Maritime]

Its snowing as we speak on Nevis Range.