Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

No change in thoughts from me, which still differs to many on here. I expect at some point tomorrow one of the models will throw a high to the north east in just over 7 days time. The pub run throws a slight tease and one which might gather momentum

Weak ridge there. Hopefully the trough next weekend will develop a stronger low over the Mediterranean than presently modelled which could allow heights over south East Russia to retrogress towards the Scandinavia region.  

Or I might be completely wrong, trying to see what some of the long rangers are trying to spot with this height anomaly over Scandi which showed up on Friday, specifically the JMA. 

 

 

Hope your right but most likely route to cold is a Northerly at the moment and I prefer Easterlies.

[Buriedundersnow]

we have some white on Britain

 

[feb1991blizzard]

we have some white on Britain

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Yes, lets hope what Danny Dyer said in that film 'The business' comes true but this time in 2014 Jan, he said in case your wondering, 'By 1987 Britain was covered in a white blanket!'

[Buriedundersnow]

Yes, lets hope what Danny Dyer said in that film 'The business' comes true but this time in 2014 Jan, he said in case your wondering, 'By 1987 Britain was covered in a white blanket!'

 

 

if it wasn't snow the other would do me perfectly

[feb1991blizzard]

if it wasn't snow the other would do me perfectly

 

Yes, the 2 most important things in life sparkle very brightly!!!!

[Buriedundersnow]

CFSv2 AO forecast

 

 

GEFS ensemble 500 mean

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

My winter forecast is available here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4684-lomond-snowstorms-epic-novel-winter-forecast-201314/

Hint: it's slightly different from RJS' one...

[syed2878]

as crue cold said there's no sign of deep pv in greenland yet lets hope it stays that way. Some of the mountins up north had snow lets hope its not too far away for the rest of us to join the fun though i've a fieling lot of paytionts going to be required this winter.

[Polar Maritime]

Back Corries are looking well on Nevis Range, With more snow forecast later tonight down to 200/300m and during the week.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Boro Snow]

Majestic 

[picog]

My winter forecast is available here:http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4684-lomond-snowstorms-epic-novel-winter-forecast-201314/Hint: it's slightly different from RJS' one...

Good luck with your winter forecast LS — a good read and lots of data to support your case!

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7473.0

The guys behind the OPI have made their forecast for winter 2014. Please use google translate if you don't read good Italian.

[-uksnow-]

Anyone after some snowy scenes...

 

http://www.rovaniemi.fi/International/English/Webcam

[throwoff]

As we enter November FI starts to show some chances of blocking and snow.

 

If everyone can gather their toys and put them back in the prams, buckle up and get ready for the final slog into WINTER!

[draztik]

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7473.0The guys behind the OPI have made their forecast for winter 2014. Please use google translate if you don't read good Italian.

so basically, theyre suggesting a positive AO, with High pressure dominating central and western Europe (incl. UK), with below average precipitation.this forecast isn't going to appetize many. Thanks for sharing tho, very interesting!

[sebastiaan1973]

Yes they do. But if I read correctly and that's quite hard with google translate, there is a chance for more northerly or northeasterly expansion of the area of high pressure. But I'm not sure.

 

The chance for a SSW seems to this research not so big.

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/

Edited November 4, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[Buriedundersnow]

Yes they do. But if I read correctly and that's quite hard with google translate, there is a chance for more northerly or northeasterly expansion of the area of high pressure. But I'm not sure.

 

The chance for a SSW seems to this research not so big.

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/

 

look at the name of who wrote that in the link u posted its BLIZZARDOF96 he has been posting in the strat thread

[Buriedundersnow]

does anyone know where I can get global monthly temp anomalies from the past

[Dancerwithwings]

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature

 

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Temp/Anomaly.html

 

Hope this helps

 

 

This is nice to look back at .....Dec 2010

Edited November 4, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Gaz1985]

I think it's fair to say most of the international long range seasonal models are going for a rather "benign" Winter for the UK, a bit like Winter 2011-12. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

does anyone know where I can get global monthly temp anomalies from the past

 

Here are a few

 

UAH Satellite Based Data from 1979 http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

NASA's GISS LOTI Ground Based Data From 1880 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

HadCRUT4 Data from 1850 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.2.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt

 

Woodfortrees has a very handy interactive charting tool that lets you compare lots of data sets and do some decent analysis on them http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/

[Buriedundersnow]

first with this post I would like to say to BLIZZARDOF96 that I have used a few charts from his winter forecast from last year and firstly I hope you don't mind that I have used these and secondly I am no way with this trying to put down the work you do as I have great respect and appreciation for people like yourself who take the time and dedication to go to the lengths you do to go through so much data and provide a well balanced forecast for us all to read.

 

I wanted to show with this post that even with looking at all the backround signals forecasts are still hard to call and can be wrong and I only wanted to show this as there have been a lot of forecasts showing a mild winter for us here in the UK.

 

here is the link to the forecast BLIZZARDOF96 done that I came across for last winter in the USA and as you can see there is a lot of time and effort been put into this looking at all the signals.

 

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/official-winter-2012-13-outlook.html

 

now here is the temp forecasts for the monthly periods and below the temp anomalies for the period on a youtube video look for the USA it comes at beginning of videos.

 

December

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZdgKmvCRy0

 

January

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ejr1QgrVa4Q

 

February

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUnDcuRxD_Q

 

now again I am in no way putting down BLIZZARDOF96 was just the one from last year I was looking at when the idea came to me and I am sure there were plenty others who got things wrong last year from the backround signals this is just to show to people who are seeing forecasts for a mild winter that doesn't mean we will see a mild winter as even with all the data to look at and backround signals there is to consider forecasts can still be wrong.

 

I would add to this as well I know the forecast was for the USA and shows how hard it can be to get right and winter forecasts for our part of the world are harder to get right.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[SE Blizzards]

Today's CFS 12Z yet again maintains it's upcoming winter/early spring blocking theme of recent weeks, with Feb and March in particular looking very nice indeed.

Edited November 4, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

The top of Glencoe has had a decent dumping of snow over the weekend

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Mike Lockwood has responded to being incorrectly cited as predicting a new little ice age by Paul Hudson in a recent BBC article.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/solar-activity-and-the-so-called-%E2%80%9Clittle-ice-age%E2%80%9D/

 

The article is very interesting, and he explains clearly the implications and uncertainty associated with declining solar activity.

 

 

The sun's activity rises and falls on an approximately 11-year cycle, but also varies on century-long timescales. It's this research I talked to BBC weatherman Paul Hudson about in an interview for the BBC's Inside Out programme.

 

Unfortunately, I now find myself in the position of being cited as predicting that the current rapid decline in solar activity will plunge the world into a "Little Ice Age".

 

This is very disappointing as it is not at all supported by the science. ...

 

...The decline in solar activity right now is incredibly interesting. It can tell us a great deal about how solar variability arises and it is giving us new insights as to what the sun during the Maunder minimum was really like.

Our research tells us very clearly that this decline has only very small implications for global climate, but it does also indicate that Europe may have to get used to a higher frequency of colder winters. These conclusions in no way contradict each other and I think they are both interesting and important.