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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    This is 2009 allover again to me... surely it cant happen ; can it?

     

    Of course it can happen, but so can a 1962/63 winter.

    Ahhh, but it has to be non stop until April!!

     

    BFTP

     

    That would be difficult to be honest, maybe he thinks the polar vortex will die?

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    This is 2009 allover again to me... surely it cant happen ; can it?

    I remember in 2009, TEITS was following this closely (PV Split) and the winter proved interesting.

     

    Regard TEITS, havent seen him yet, must be hibernating still!

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Comparison on this day to 2010 and 2009.

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

     

    Comparison for the 1st of November.

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Barry95
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Its back

     

    Now get ready for an ‘Ice Age’ as experts warn of Siberian winter ahead

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2822347

     

    Any guesses which paper its in.............

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    maybe deep in GFS FI but its good to see high pressure getting sent to higher latitudes maybe a trend starting

     

    Posted Imagegfsnh-0-384.pngPosted Image2.png3.pngPosted Imagegfsnh-2013102900-0-384.png

     

    Those are very cold charts for my neck of the woods...daytime highs would be below -10cPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I'm liking the low pressure systems tracking that little bit further South, indicative of pressure being that bit higher towards the pole. As long as we don't see the PV shifting to it's Southern Greenland homeland we may get some decent Polar North Westerlies towards mid November.

     

    These early GFS FI Strat models are a great sign. If the vortex struggles to get going at the start of Winter it will have a hard job later on when SSW's become more likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Cards on table here!!!! The meto, 16/30 day perceptions, are of a colder/much colder (perhaps). From friday this week......

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    Posted
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: early spring, warm summers and cold winters
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset

    Does anyone know what the Autumn of 1962 was like? I seem to recall reading the 1962 had a cold spring similar to this year and was wondering whether there was any pattern to this years weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Does anyone know what the Autumn of 1962 was like? I seem to recall reading the 1962 had a cold spring similar to this year and was wondering whether there was any pattern to this years weather.

    1962 (March):

    1. With a CET=2.8degC, easily the COLDEST March in the 20th century, and the coldest March since 1892 (CET=2.7degC), but not in the 'top-10' of coldest Marches.

    1962 (November):

    1. From the 8th, as winds came more from a continental easterly direction, TEMPERATURES fell steadily, then abruptly on the 11th as Russian/arctic air spread west. The following weekend (16th/17th) was one of the STORMIEST/MOST SNOWY on record for November. GALES were widespread, GUSTS of 75 knots being recorded on the Isles of Scilly on both the 16th and 17th, and SLEET/SNOW fell practically everywhere. Level SNOW was 7 inches (circa 17cm) deep in parts of Scotland, with DRIFTS of 3 feet (circa 1 metre), and roads were BLOCKED, traffic dislocated as far south as Devon, Cornwall & Somerset. COLD, northerly winds persisted for several days, with widespread FROST

     

    taken from this site- http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1950_1974.htm#1953

     

    it doesnt mention october but good source of info

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    Met Office seem to think that the wet unsettled weather will continue through November and beyond  A mild November also forecast and warmer than average temperatures more likely into January

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/q/A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf

     

    Forecast curves for November show a strong signal for wetter-than-average conditions. With computer models signalling westerly or southwesterly flow for November as a whole, it is thought more likely than not that many northern and western parts of Britain would be wetter than in November 2012.

    For November-December-January as a whole the forecast favours above-average rainfall over below-average, with the probability of very wet conditions enhanced, and that for very dry conditions reduced, with respect to climatology.

     

    These influences are reflected in the forecast in Figure T2, which shows a strong signal for milder-than-average conditions in November. In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost.Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milderwinters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

     

    Confidence of course drops a lot further out.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

    People need stop taking computers models as a gospel so much . We are still 3 weeks away from knowing what the first part of winter will be like never mind January and February . Things look good for a cold setup mid to end November . The PV looks weak and if we can split it the that's great . We have cold bottled up in Europe. We have just got to ride this jetstream/ Low pressure systems for another few weeks until things start to settle . I think we have quite exciting weather right now proper autumn like which is Better than the dross that we have put up with the last few weeks . Enjoy autumn people

    Edited by Chess01
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Met Office seem to think that the wet unsettled weather will continue through November and beyond  A mild November also forecast and warmer than average temperatures more likely into January

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/q/A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf

     

    Forecast curves for November show a strong signal for wetter-than-average conditions. With computer models signalling westerly or southwesterly flow for November as a whole, it is thought more likely than not that many northern and western parts of Britain would be wetter than in November 2012.

    For November-December-January as a whole the forecast favours above-average rainfall over below-average, with the probability of very wet conditions enhanced, and that for very dry conditions reduced, with respect to climatology.

     

    These influences are reflected in the forecast in Figure T2, which shows a strong signal for milder-than-average conditions in November. In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost.Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milderwinters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

     

    Confidence of course drops a lot further out.

     

    yeah but that it just based on the seasonal model output is it not?

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    People need stop taking computers models as a gospel so much . We are still 3 weeks away from knowing what the first part of winter will be like never mind January and February . Things look good for a cold setup mid to end November . The PV looks weak and if we can split it the that's great . We have cold bottled up in Europe. We have just got to ride this jetstream/ Low pressure systems for another few weeks until things start to settle . I think we have quite exciting weather right now proper autumn like which is Better than the dross that we have put up with the last few weeks . Enjoy autumn people

    Well said. Anyway, people (as i keep reminding) forget that November 2010 was very mild until the last week when a NE wind kicked in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Cards on table here!!!! The meto, 16/30 day perceptions, are of a colder/much colder (perhaps). From friday this week......

    Really? Not what the metoffice site says, temperatures near normal and if anything for pressure to rise from the south bringing drier weather there. No mention of even below average temperatures, let alone cold or frosts.

    UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 12 Nov 2013:

    Rain, locally heavy, across southern areas will clear east on Monday with most parts then seeing strong to gale force winds and squally showers. Drier and brighter at first on Tuesday with lighter winds before more wind and rain reaches western areas later in the day, spreading east. Temperatures will generally be near normal. Largely unsettled conditions look set to dominate the weather thereafter with showers or longer spells of rain, locally heavy, particularly in the west. It will stay windy in many areas, especially in the northwest. There will, however, be some drier and brighter interludes with the best of these in the south. Towards the end of the period, these more settled conditions may last longer in the south resulting in more overnight fog here.

    Updated: 1214 on Tue 29 Oct 2013

     

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 27 Nov 2013:

     

    Early November's mostly unsettled conditions are thought likely to persist across northern and western regions. As such, rainfall amounts here are more likely than not to be above average and conditions may also be quite windy at times. Further south and east, rainfall accumulations are considered likely to be nearer average, implying slightly more changeable conditions with drier, brighter periods interspersed with more unsettled bouts of weather. Taking the country as a whole, temperatures during this period are more likely than not to be near, or perhaps above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of overnight frost than can usually be expected at this time of year.

    Updated: 1159 on Tue 29 Oct 2013

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Well said. Anyway, people (as i keep reminding) forget that November 2010 was very mild until the last week when a NE wind kicked in.

     

    I remember thinking in November 2009, 'well here comes another mild winter'. How wrong was I.....

     

    2 months later I was experiencing -16C!

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

    I remember thinking in November 2009, 'well here comes another mild winter'. How wrong was I.....2 months later I was experiencing -16C!

    exactly I don't see why people want intense cold now we want it closer to winter as possible . Get everything in place and the cold should hold . There's no need to rush it to get a week of cold when you could wait 3 to 4 weeks to establish a cold pattern for most of the winter
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    heres todays gavsweathervids video and he is punting for colder from mid month onwards

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toUvfOH8BSs#t=584

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Getting me excited! 5% chance of snow for my location!!!! wooooo ;)

    post-17320-0-00716400-1383062394_thumb.p

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    I think temps are certain to drop through November, snow will come.

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    A lot of geese flying south over the weekend if you believe that's a sign of things to come!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Downgrades as the day has progressed, there were some stonking Northern hemisphere multiple wave patterns in the far reaches of FI on the overnight suites, these seem to have diminished greatly as the day has progressed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Some decent GEFS runs in the 18z wrt trying to disrupt / spit / displace the PV, I will investigate further - only up to number 8 and there only up to 270 yet though so bare with me.

     

    They tended to fizzle out somewhat, better than 12z but not as good as the ones this morning, some serious ridges squeezing directly over the other side of the pole but not a lot from anywhere else, nothing smashing right through the pole like this morning.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    GFS 18z would bring snow to parts of northern UK during mid November.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Probably just sleety showers for north and east-facing coasts, with lying snow over the Scottish Highlands and North York Moors, but yes, the GFS 18Z does show a fairly potent northerly near the end of the run. 

    Not much hope for snow lovers yet on the 500mb outlooks from NOAA but they only take us up to the 12th November- it's still very early days.

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