Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[weatherguy]

I find it incredible that some of these 'journalists' are allowed to spread their utter tripe to the general public. 

[irishlad69]

Can someone please direct me to the correct models showing this,as I can't find any freeze next week. :-)

maybe they are just saying that the temperatures next week are going to be much colder compared to how warm its been, but as usual papers blow it out of proportion just to sell papers. or maybe they know something we don't, lol,

[Weather-history]

I find it incredible that some of these 'journalists' are allowed to spread their utter tripe to the general public.

Why do they think it is front page news?

[Frank Trough]

Why do they think it is front page news?

 

and where is at all going to end? They are basically sensationalising the possibility of a frost in November.

 

"Britain set to face days of frighteningly near average conditions for November, with the country set to grind to a halt as people have to scrape a bit of ice off their cars. Later in the week forecasters believe there may even be the possibility of some SHOWERS as Britain neither freezes nor bakes. Forecasters warn that no schools will be shut and travel will not be disrupted and that people may be able to just go about their business". 

 

Tw@s

[Skullzrulerz]

I find it incredible that some of these 'journalists' are allowed to spread their utter tripe to the general public. 

Happens every year.

[Summer Sun]

Glencoe mountain had heavy snow right down to the car park yesterday the internet was down as well so some of the web cams are not updating the last updates from some of them were just after 10am yesterday morning

 

The one at Cafe Ossian (by the car parks) is working (1200ft above sea level)

 

Edited November 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Buriedundersnow]

nice way for the GFS 6z to finish today way out in FI so not likely but still good to see

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest video from Gavin P very clear signal America (east and north east) is heading for a cold winter, as for the UK still conflicting signals still making it hard to ping down

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4kK9iGqS3Y#t=79

[Skullzrulerz]

Latest video from Gavin P very clear signal America (east and north east) is heading for a cold winter, as for the UK still conflicting signals still making it hard to ping down

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4kK9iGqS3Y#t=79

Its a even playing field in my opinion....It will be a cold or mild winter or a normal one....Since 2009 Most winter have been cold...

[smithyweather]

Why do some people on the Model thread still keep saying its mild? Its not mild, the max temp for here does not exceed 8c over the next week.

[Summer Sun]

Why do some people on the Model thread still keep saying its mild? Its not mild, the max temp for here does not exceed 8c over the next week.

 

Because some places are still mild especially in southern England

[Jax]

IMBY again I see

[Skullzrulerz]

Because some places are still mild especially in southern England

Well I haven't seen the temp where i live go pass 11c mark.And i live in the far south west.......

[smithyweather]

Well its far from mild here with a temp of 7c right now at midday.

[bobbydog]

Why do some people on the Model thread still keep saying its mild? Its not mild, the max temp for here does not exceed 8c over the next week.

 

i haven't seen anyone on there say its mild (apart from gavin of course )

 

there will of course be regional variances and the temperature at your house doesn't dictate everyone elses in the UK

[Skullzrulerz]

Temps are around where we should be some places below where we should be.

[Tim Bland]

Glencoe mountain had heavy snow right down to the car park yesterday the internet was down as well so some of the web cams are not updating the last updates from some of them were just after 10am yesterday morning

The one at Cafe Ossian (by the car parks) is working (1200ft above sea level)

Anyone who is interested in snow amounts on Scottish mountains - and has a smart phone - should download the ski Scotland app. It Has around 15 webcams. Cairngorm looks very snowy now with a good base at the top.

Nice to see the first eye candy charts now appearing in FI on the models. Let's hope we get a few of them into the reliable timeframe before the end of the month!

[Summer Sun]

Temps are around where we should be some places below where we should be.

 

Over the night 8 days only the south west looks like seeing above normal temps virtually of of eastern and southern Europe is above average still some parts are seeing temps 6c above normal

 

[Summer Sun]

i haven't seen anyone on there say its mild (apart from gavin of course )

 

there will of course be regional variances and the temperature at your house doesn't dictate everyone elses in the UK

 

I don't even think I've used the word mild recently in the MOD thread to be honest other than those in the summaries from Gibby

[Barry12]

Over the night 8 days only the south west looks like seeing above normal temps virtually of of eastern and southern Europe is above average still some parts are seeing temps 6c above normal

 

 

Below average for virtually all of the UK, and most of Scandinavia

Edited November 3, 2013 by Barry95

[SE Blizzards]

More blocked scenarios being churned out by the CFS for winter/early spring. A regular occurrence as of late.

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

More blocked scenarios being churned out by the CFS for winter/early spring. A regular occurrence as of late.

Good news for cold fans...I had a feeling that there will be no blocking this year/next year.And...Woah this comes out YAY  

[Skullzrulerz]

Below average for virtually all of the UK, and most of Scandinavia

Only the Very Far South west (Cornwall) (West Devon) Only have Around To Above  temps 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the weekly 12z CFS update.

 

Below is the final November graph.

 

 

It seems something changed quite dramatically around the 11th of October, from showing moderate to strong +ve SLP anomalies to our north to mainly neutral or negative anomalies after. A lot of variability overall, which will detract from it's predictive value, but perhaps if November end up with average SLP to our north, then it may show some use.

 

Below is the latest December chart.

 

 

The last 7 days have averaged 1.1 or weak +ve SLP anomalies, with 1 -ve run, 1 neutral and 5 +ve (previous week was 1.3, with 2 -ve and 5 +ve). The slow downward trend continues, but the 10 day average remain +ve.

 

Below is the January chart

 

 

January remain firmly in the moderate blocking category. The last 7 days have averaged 2, moderate +ve SLP anomalies, with 2 runs showing neutral and 5 positive (previous 7 days averaged 2.3, with 6 +ve and 1 neutral). The long term trend is slightly negative, but the 10 day averaged has climbed quite a bit over the last 2 weeks and if this continues, the trend line should even out.

 

Some highlighted charts from the last week.

Best

January from the 12z CFS on October 31st

 

Worst

December 12z CFS from October 28th

 

[Skullzrulerz]

Did people say sometime ago that the start of november was going to be mild? there were very wrong.