Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[UV-RAY]

It is starting to look like the only signal that is good at the moment for cold... but it is a signal for mid atlantic blocking as much as anything else and that is not automatically cold, especially if the jet roars over the top and is working continually to flatten it. I am still seeing a strong NW element to the first third of winter - average day time temps but maybe a lack of night time frost pushing the overall CET above the average line.

hopefully we'll see a January 84 type set up the which brought a lot of disruptive snow to NW parts of the country, it was quite an unusal set up though with the air coming all the way across the North Atlantic from polar regions in NE Canada if my memory serves me right. Edited November 2, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[cheeky_monkey]

antoher snowy weekend here in Calgary

[SE Blizzards]

We have our very first -10 of the season showing up on the Ens. Hopefully the first of many many more over the next few coming weeks/months 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

We have our very first -10 of the season showing up on the Ens. Hopefully the first of many many more over the next few coming weeks/months 

 

Oh and just happens to coincide with the predicted mid-November cool down

[SE Blizzards]

Oh and just happens to coincide with the predicted mid-November cool down

 

Have to say i'm in total agreement that the back end of November will bring a shock to the system. Watching out for a pattern change just after mid month

[Summer Sun]

antoher snowy weekend here in Calgary

 

I have to stand on my head to view it

 

[hillbilly]

Cheers.  Yes there does seem to be massive variations in Northern England in snow amounts, certainly more so  than when i lived in the midlands anyway, on average I get something like 25 days a year of falling snow and 30 days of lying snow yet Salford where i last lived was under 10 for both categories i think.

It is all about altitude if snow is lying above 300m it will probably be the same in the lakes,dales,north Yorkshire moors,peak district ,breacon beacons and probably Dartmoor and exmoor

[Buriedundersnow]

We have our very first -10 of the season showing up on the Ens. Hopefully the first of many many more over the next few coming weeks/months 

 

very good to see at least one going that cold and its noticeable as well that the OPERATIONAL is one of the mildest runs in the whole suite

[cooling climate]

update to my long range prediction for the winter 13/14 made in

August and I see no reason to change from what I posted back

then of a severe winter to come for Europe and the UK with a

predominantly negative AO and NAO.

Higher than normal ozone over the northern hemisphere and

Arctic will aid in pacific (Aleutian,northeast Pacific)and Asian

wave breaking. Looking at the synoptic charts the pacific highs

are really putting pressure on the stratosphere and I think it is a  

question of when rather then if the dam breaks we will then see a

pattern much more conducive to mid latitude Arctic outbreaks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

update to my long range prediction for the winter 13/14 made in

August and I see no reason to change from what I posted back

then of a severe winter to come for Europe and the UK with a

predominantly negative AO and NAO.

Higher than normal ozone over the northern hemisphere and

Arctic will aid in pacific (Aleutian,northeast Pacific)and Asian

wave breaking. Looking at the synoptic charts the pacific highs

are really putting pressure on the stratosphere and I think it is a  

question of when rather then if the dam breaks we will then see a

pattern much more conducive to mid latitude Arctic outbreaks.

 

I must say, that's the impression I have been getting too cc

[Buriedundersnow]

worth a watch and take from it what u will

 

talks about possible upcoming mini ice age and sunspots vanishing by 2015

 

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=414_1315052227

[feb1991blizzard]

I must say, that's the impression I have been getting too cc

 

 

Hope your both right, although not as confident of a great start, the trop going to be there for the taking and you have to think at some stage the strat will play ball, first half - a tiny bit above average but with some good cold snaps with a stonking ending im going for.

[Buriedundersnow]

second day in a row with the ECM 12z showing signs of ridging in the Atlantic

 

[West Highland Storm]

Lying Snow (1 inch) on Nevis Range was below the top gondola station restuarant today.

 

Prediction for 10cm on the summit tonight .

[UV-RAY]

worth a watch and take from it what u will

 

talks about possible upcoming mini ice age and sunspots vanishing by 2015

 

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=414_1315052227

I first saw that in 2011, it's an excellent presentation on how solar variability effects our climate both now and over the last 10,000 years. 

[Buriedundersnow]

I first saw that in 2011, it's an excellent presentation on how solar variability effects our climate both now and over the last 10,000 years. 

 

 

yeah and its good to see someone knowledgeable talking about it and showing the correlation that exists.

 

if there right about sunspots vanishing by 2015 then we might have some real fun in the near future and if it is a long state of low activity will be interesting to see how long cold winters can last through this period

[Skullzrulerz]

You do know that mini ice ages could last for 100s of years?

[UV-RAY]

yeah and its good to see someone knowledgeable talking about it and showing the correlation that exists.

 

if there right about sunspots vanishing by 2015 then we might have some real fun in the near future and if it is a long state of low activity will be interesting to see how long cold winters can last through this period

I think if solar output continues as forecast then this period would be just as cold as it was in either the Dalton or Maunder Minimum on a global scale, but that's for another thread Lol.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[stewfox]

Ok now that we know the mild crap is going to continue whats the earliest I can see snow falling?

Fed up waiting.

 

'Fed up waiting' ???

 

Its not usual to have snow by the 2nd of November in fact I know of no winter when the coldest period was September to November.

 

As the winds swung to the East on January 23rd 1947 heavy snow followed and prolonged period of snow ice and leaden skies lasted till mid March 1947

 

On Christmas day of 1962 a belt of rain and sleet moved over southern Britain as mild air tried in vain to push the cold continental air away (it failed) and snow ice and  leaden skies lasted till early March 1963

 

Jan 1940,Jan 1979,Feb 86,Jan 87 etc

 

I would suggest you can get impatient by the end of February 2014

 

I would like to see some 'cold signals' being picked up well into FI but that's a different matter.

[Chess01]

Autumn ends in December winter ends in march therefore we shouldnt worry about the current weather as it's very autumnal and not really that mild . I would like to see cold and snow middle of December and around Xmas so there's another month and a half to go yet . We do not live in Finland or Canada our winter starts in December I do hope we can have a few more of these storms though

Edited November 2, 2013 by Chess01

[Barry12]

 in fact I know of no winter when the coldest period was September to November

 

 

That's because it's Autumn

[Summer Sun]

Autumn ends in December winter ends in march therefore we shouldnt worry about the current weather as it's very autumnal and not really that mild . I would like to see cold and snow middle of December and around Xmas so there's another month and a half to go yet . We do not live in Finland or Canada our winter starts in December I do hope we can have a few more of these storms though

 

 

Autumn ends in November and winter ends in February

Edited November 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Chess01]

Autumn ends in November and winter ends in February

i meant the start of December and the end of november. Anyway we still get cold in March so I class winter ends at the end of March

[Buriedundersnow]

snow off the atlantic in February with the PV sat right over our side of the hemisphere anyone

 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

worth a watch and take from it what u willtalks about possible upcoming mini ice age and sunspots vanishing by 2015http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=414_1315052227

Very interesting that and thanks for posting. One things for sure, if we are about to enter a mini ice age the Government are going to have to do something about those rocketing utility bills !