Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


Recommended Posts

Oh absolutely. People who know of my posts will understand that I release a winter forecast on the site which is usually an in depth look at some of the factors which may collude to produce a certain seasonal eventuality. This year I'm aiming to leave it as late as possible as December is causing me some issues; hence I'm more confident of January and February. Also I'm a stickler for detail so I don't really want to rush out my thoughts- been rather busy with work lately and don't have as much 'free time' as I have in recent years.

 

However, as a very preliminary 'thought', with a fairly insignificant ENSO signal this year (it'll be a weak episode) I think more attention has to be paid to the Atlantic set up than the ENSO state and even the QBO phase. Of course, I take into account long range modelling also- even though some people may not necessarily agree with this.

 

I think we'll all know more as November progresses- keep an eye on Chiono's stratospheric analyses as these provide a very useful guide also. I believe stratospheric state/likely stratospheric state has to be factored in to any LRF (even though some don't believe in this yet).

 

Cheers!

 

 

I believe its the single biggest factor, of course at very long range though the trick is to try to predict what other drivers are most likely to drive the strat temps, ozone levels and the BDC, QBO, mountain torques, etc.

Daily Express just do it all the time. They are nothing but a joke. There is no way any significant cold air mass will penetrate south, especially at this set-up right now.

 

 

They are bad as David Cameron and Nick clegg kept lying to us.

 

Do I detect a non - admittance of Brown and Blair's lies in there.

 

EDIT : sorry crewe, apologies for adding the politics bit, after you +1ed me.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I believe its the single biggest factor, of course at very long range though the trick is to try to predict what other drivers are most likely to drive the strat temps, ozone levels and the BDC, QBO, mountain torques, etc.

If I had to choose three or four things that was the most important factors in seasonal forecasting heading into winter , it would have to be , stratospheric conditions(including mountain torques , wave breaks etc) , Eurasian snow cover , QBO, solar conditions, and finally the jet stream , which is effected by the solar energy as we know. I no some people are unsure of the solar impacts but I'm absolutely convinced with what Iv researched the solar conditions have a major impact on Europe's weather . Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

indeed, there is currently little for those seeking a colder than average winter season to grasp hold of.  the main one being the unpredictability of the weather. the strat thread will provide early pointers to possible changes ahead in the trop but currently the vortex continues to strengthen and seems more than capable of rebuffing the repeated ridging aleutians/alaska area. a slow start to the winter looks very likely from a coldies perspective.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh absolutely. People who know of my posts will understand that I release a winter forecast on the site which is usually an in depth look at some of the factors which may collude to produce a certain seasonal eventuality. This year I'm aiming to leave it as late as possible as December is causing me some issues; hence I'm more confident of January and February. Also I'm a stickler for detail so I don't really want to rush out my thoughts- been rather busy with work lately and don't have as much 'free time' as I have in recent years.

 

However, as a very preliminary 'thought', with a fairly insignificant ENSO signal this year (it'll be a weak episode) I think more attention has to be paid to the Atlantic set up than the ENSO state and even the QBO phase. Of course, I take into account long range modelling also- even though some people may not necessarily agree with this.

 

I think we'll all know more as November progresses- keep an eye on Chiono's stratospheric analyses as these provide a very useful guide also. I believe stratospheric state/likely stratospheric state has to be factored in to any LRF (even though some don't believe in this yet).

 

Cheers!

 

Seems like scientists are facing the same problem.

 

Using methods like numerical modelling, we're getting a better understanding of what could be driving the relationship. The likely mechanism is that changes in solar ultraviolet output alters the temperature distribution and winds in the stratosphere in winter and this, in turn, disrupts the northern-hemisphere jet stream, causing more frequent "blocking" events.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Analysis of the effect of low solar activity on winter surface temperatures via blocking events for 1976-2010. Blue areas are colder than average, orange are warmer. Source: Lockwood et al., ( 2010)

This potential mechanism is still a matter of vibrant debate in the academic community because it is difficult to understand how the very thin atmosphere in the stratosphere can influence the much denser troposphere below, where our weather and climate resides. 

 

http://www.carbonbrief.org/5162.aspx

 

Newish paper on the subject.

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n2/full/ngeo1698.html

Link to post
Share on other sites

A wintery start at Glencoe summit this morning

 

Posted Image

 

Yesterday it was snowing down to the rescue shed

 

Yes Gav, and with blizzards forecast later this evening we should see some nice conditions up there come tomorrow.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I always thought this was 'new' for the Daily Express ie last 10 years but saw recently the paper back in the 1920s was forecasting a winter Armageddon (didn't happen)

 

Deliberating miss leading statements unverified by main stream reliable sources should not be published in National papers, but thinking about that, there wouldn't be much left in the papers if we stop them publishing such material.

Edited by stewfox
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at some of the long range models for this coming winter suggest that Greece could once again be the place to be for cold and snow, some of these predictions have a 90s, noughties look to them. For the love of god I hope they are barking up the wrong tree, but we are due a mild winter with a big fat Euro high.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at some of the long range models for this coming winter suggest that Greece could once again be the place to be for cold and snow, some of these predictions have a 90s, noughties look to them. For the love of god I hope they are barking up the wrong tree, but we are due a mild winter with a big fat Euro high.

How are we due a mild winter when we've already had about 60000 mild winters!We are due a PROPER PROPER cold winter.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure what this means for the UK but Matt Hugo has just tweeted this

 

Bit of a blip but temps across the pole are now back to near avg. Question is; how low will they go this side of Xmas

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to post
Share on other sites

How are we due a mild winter when we've already had about 60000 mild winters!We are due a PROPER PROPER cold winter.

Our normal default winter weather pattern is average to mild and it's been a few years since we had a mild winter. There's nothing scientific about it, just the law of averages.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Our normal default winter weather pattern is average to mild and it's been a few years since we had a mild winter. There's nothing scientific about it, just the law of averages.

 

Indeed just like how we were due a hot spell in Summer and this year we finally got one

 

Law of averages says a mild winter will return its just no one knows when it will happen

Link to post
Share on other sites

it's been a few years since we had a mild winter.

What about 2 years ago,winter 2011/12 was a mild one. So i dont think it is really true imo to say we are due a mild one.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...