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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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RE - Ian F's post in the mod thread, this is looking like a mammoth collapse, possibly the earliest write off of a winter and biggest collapse of all time from what looked fairly promising output, 12 was bad but 27th Jan.........

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RE - Ian F's post in the mod thread, this is looking like a mammoth collapse, possibly the earliest write off of a winter and biggest collapse of all time from what looked fairly promising output, 12 was bad but 27th Jan.........

 

Indeed, in fact if the latest EC32 comes off we could well be looking at another February 1998!  I think this winter is now well on track to be poorer than 2006/07 and up there with 1988/89.  A shocker......

Edited by Don
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Indeed, in fact if the latest EC32 comes off we could well be looking at another February 1998!  I think this winter is now well on track to be poorer than 2006/07 and up there with 1988/89.  A shocker......

 

my previous worst is debatable in terms of falling lying snow, either 88-89 or 92-93 (midlands), I don't remember 98 very much as I had given up by then, only got interested again in 09 but even in the crap naughties, always had a few falls of an inch or something, this will be easily my worst ever if no more snow, in of all places the pennine hills of Northern England.

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Indeed, in fact if the latest EC32 comes off we could well be looking at another February 1998!  I think this winter is now well on track to be poorer than 2006/07 and up there with 1988/89.  A shocker......

Hopefully we  can see some high temps similar to Feb 1998. Reached 18C in Leeds which is quite an achievement.

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I'm writing this winter off as of now. I don't want anyone to think I am writing off the chance of snow and cold at all...yes that might still happen, but I see it happening sometime in March, with the kind of set up that will have people shouting "If only it was January!" I am writing off the chance of snow/cold for what remains of the meterological season of "winter"...this pattern we have been stuck in for what seems like forever is so stubborn...so relentless...simply shows no genuine realistic signs of ending anytime soon. We call Bartlett Highs winter eaters.....this pattern has proven to be a real winter eater, having trashed weeks on end, and destined to wreck the foreseeable with time running out.

 

Well....thats it for me....I'm taking a break from model watching until the Spring...I have had it with seeing the same damn thing in the summaries day after day...rain/wind/rain/rain/rain. It is too damn depressing frankly and chasing Jam tomorrow charts has become as tedious as the wretched stinking weather.

 

Enough is enough.

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Hopefully we  can see some high temps similar to Feb 1998. Reached 18C in Leeds which is quite an achievement.

 

Provided we had a warm and sunny spring i'd honestly not be too disappointed if Feb saw the blowtorch, at least spectacular early spring warmth is better than dull or cold rain. 

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Provided we had a warm and sunny spring i'd honestly not be too disappointed if Feb saw the blowtorch, at least spectacular early spring warmth is better than dull or cold rain. 

 

With a shift of QBO and possible neutral ENSO state continuing (possible weak El Nino) I just wonder what spring and summer may offer. A continuation of wet conditions may be catastrophic but more than possible. Saying this, I can't see such a wet spring following such a wet winter as things do generally tend to balance out (although some people are fond of using this method for forecasting).

 

Ah well, at least next winter we look to be going in with a -QBO state which should negate the issue of a strong early vortex formation somewhat. I believe Chiono has already said that the QBO state should work more in our favour next winter.

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well what a depressing this winters turning out to be. Some how i can't c the strat beeing our friend this time around though winter 2006-2007 was bad at least i seen some snow that winter here in this part of birmingham. This winter i haven't even seen a flake of snow. The models don't look inspiring ither and if ian f's post regarding the ecmf 32day is anything to go by then it doesn't sound hopeful for us coldies.

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Just came back From A day Trip to Glencoe. Anybody disappointed with this mild winter should venture up the Ski Centers. The snow up there is just insane and may well have broken the record snowfalls of 2009-2010 with glencoe currently having one of the deepest snow depths of any european resorts. The snow was level with cables at many places and the main basin t-bar was completely buried under huge amounts of snow. 

 

post-20651-0-22509700-1390894051_thumb.j

post-20651-0-22788200-1390894056_thumb.j

 

Websites are reporting 300 cm of snow.

 

Anybody tired of this dreadful winter should have a go at the ski centers.

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Indeed, in fact if the latest EC32 comes off we could well be looking at another February 1998! I think this winter is now well on track to be poorer than 2006/07 and up there with 1988/89. A shocker......

February 1998 wasn't actually that bad, it was if you wanted a lot of cold or snow but at least for England and Wales, it was a dry month, which is what is needed. What is not wanted is a February 1990, which although was exceptionally mild was also exceptionally wet. Edited by Weather-history
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Indeed, in fact if the latest EC32 comes off we could well be looking at another February 1998!  I think this winter is now well on track to be poorer than 2006/07 and up there with 1988/89.  A shocker......

 

I never thought I'd see a winter worse than 06/07, but I fear you may well be right.

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With a shift of QBO and possible neutral ENSO state continuing (possible weak El Nino) I just wonder what spring and summer may offer. A continuation of wet conditions may be catastrophic but more than possible. Saying this, I can't see such a wet spring following such a wet winter as things do generally tend to balance out (although some people are fond of using this method for forecasting).

 

Ah well, at least next winter we look to be going in with a -QBO state which should negate the issue of a strong early vortex formation somewhat. I believe Chiono has already said that the QBO state should work more in our favour next winter.

 

Having looked at the QBO and MEI states of 18C+ summer months all but 4 occurred in +MEI conditions, the QBO state however appears to be less important. That being said i'm not sold on +MEI conditions since the models have predicted EL Nino for the last 2 years and it's never really arrived.

 

Posted Image

 

Don't make the mistake of thing a -QBO equals cold. It's better than a +QBO but it's not close to a guarantee and winter 2012 shows well that it does not always stop vortex formation.

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Another forgotten awful dud winter was 2007-08 - although not quite as mild as 06-07, it was equally as devoid of cold spells, cold synoptics and snow.  All that winter did was see a couple of longer Rex blocking spells than 06-07.

 

The monthly CETs do not always pick up record mild spells - a forgotten record mild month straddling two calendar months was from January 13th to February 12th 2002 - that 31 day period produced a CET of 8.0 exactly - which I think is the warmest ever 31 day spell in january / February, milder than the warmest calendar months of January and February.  Now that winter was also pretty much a write off - although Dec 2001 did produce some colder drier weather mostly through mid-latitude blocking though little in the way of snow or anything notable in terms of cold, which lasted into the early part of Jan 2002 - before the winter deteriorated into a horror show.

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Last occasion I saw two consecutive air frosts was 25th and 26th November!It's February this weekend!Even by this stage in 1988-89, 1989-90, 1997-98 and 2006-07, I have seen more air frosts than this winter ie 1st December to now.

I do not think that Dec 1988 / Jan 1989 saw anything in the way of cold at all - they were certainly snowless and didn't see much frost either. 

 

The late part of Nov 1989 and early December did see some colder drier frostier weather under high pressure before the winter turned into a horror show.  I believe that the later part of Jan 1998 saw a colder frosty Rex blocking pattern.  Dec 2006 saw a short frosty Rex blocking pattern and from around Jan 21st -25th 2007 there was a colder northerly spell with frosts and even some snowfall to favoured places, so even one of the mildest Januarys on record still managed a short cold snap - Jan 2014 looks set to come in around 1.5*C colder than Jan 2007 for the CET but will have actually delivered less in the way of a cold snap than Jan 2007 did!

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Its nice to see the prevaling south west wind back again. Our winters are supposed too be mild.

IM backing the atlantic warm moist air as opposed to all the rants about yukky snow and cold.

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Most notable aspect of the winter so far has been the absence of even a 48 hr window of dry settled weather - its no wonder we have seen little frost, not because uppers have been warm, but more because we have seen little in the way of clear skies and calm conditions. Many nights have seen temps hovering between 1-4 degrees and had skies cleared and winds become light then a lot more frost should have been recorded than it has.

 

The lack of snow has also been quite notable, not necessarily lying snow, but little in the way of falling snow.

 

Its also been an exceptionally dull winter so far, and also very wet.

 

Compared to the likes of 06/07 and 07/08 its been a much more interesting winter so far for lively conditions with no lengthy mild settled spell courtesy of high pressure to the south (the Bartlett high) the worst kind of synoptics in my book.

 

As a snow cold lover, I am not enjoying this winter one bit, but we have been very lucky since winter 07/08 with only winter 11/12 coming a little under par.

 

I'll be very surprised if we get to mid March and we haven't seen at least a few days of colder drier conditions perhaps with a bit snow courtesy of an airstream from between north and east, northerlies and easterlies are far more likely to surface from mid Feb onwards.

 

I'm waiting for the year when we both see a decent cold snowy winter and a decent warm sunny dry summer- have to go back to summer 95 and winter 95/96 for such an occasion. Recent good winters have been combined with poor summers, and good summers combined with poor winters for snow and cold - can't we get the best of both worlds for once!! summer 90 and winter 90/91 also a good combo but not on the scale of 95 and winter 96/96.

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Its nice to see the prevaling south west wind back again. Our winters are supposed too be mild.

IM backing the atlantic warm moist air as opposed to all the rants about yukky snow and cold.

 

Your name should be troll.....you  have therefore won an all-expenses paid trip to the Somerset Levels...with my compliments,

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Most notable aspect of the winter so far has been the absence of even a 48 hr window of dry settled weather - its no wonder we have seen little frost, not because uppers have been warm, but more because we have seen little in the way of clear skies and calm conditions. Many nights have seen temps hovering between 1-4 degrees and had skies cleared and winds become light then a lot more frost should have been recorded than it has.

 

The lack of snow has also been quite notable, not necessarily lying snow, but little in the way of falling snow.

 

Its also been an exceptionally dull winter so far, and also very wet.

 

Compared to the likes of 06/07 and 07/08 its been a much more interesting winter so far for lively conditions with no lengthy mild settled spell courtesy of high pressure to the south (the Bartlett high) the worst kind of synoptics in my book.

 

As a snow cold lover, I am not enjoying this winter one bit, but we have been very lucky since winter 07/08 with only winter 11/12 coming a little under par.

 

I'll be very surprised if we get to mid March and we haven't seen at least a few days of colder drier conditions perhaps with a bit snow courtesy of an airstream from between north and east, northerlies and easterlies are far more likely to surface from mid Feb onwards.

 

I'm waiting for the year when we both see a decent cold snowy winter and a decent warm sunny dry summer- have to go back to summer 95 and winter 95/96 for such an occasion. Recent good winters have been combined with poor summers, and good summers combined with poor winters for snow and cold - can't we get the best of both worlds for once!! summer 90 and winter 90/91 also a good combo but not on the scale of 95 and winter 96/96.

 

If we get a poor summer, I know who to blame.....

 

;)

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My overall memories of 2007/08 aren't too bad because of that memorable anticyclonic spell during February- as well as being unusually sunny, a few of the sunsets in Norwich during that spell were outstanding and surpassed any sunsets that I've seen before or since. 

 

In the 1997/98 winter, the exceptional warm spell in mid-February is well-remembered but less well-known was the taster that we had the previous month, when in Tyneside I had three consecutive springlike days in the second week of January (10th-12th).  The southerly airflow brought warm sunny weather right up the eastern half of England, though many western parts of the country missed out.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980111.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00219980111.gif

 

This winter has so far been exceptional for its lack of temperature variation- we've been missing those short-lived northerlies that have often characterised other mild, zonal winters (1994/95 and 1998/99 being two good examples) and the sort of plumes of exceptional warmth from a long way south that we saw repeatedly in the 1997/98 winter and to a lesser extent in 1988/89 and also 1989/90.  This ties in with the near-absence of settled weather, since northerly and/or southerly incursions generally imply that an anticyclone sits close to the British Isles for long enough to interrupt the west to south-westerly flow.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Most notable aspect of the winter so far has been the absence of even a 48 hr window of dry settled weather - its no wonder we have seen little frost, not because uppers have been warm, but more because we have seen little in the way of clear skies and calm conditions. Many nights have seen temps hovering between 1-4 degrees and had skies cleared and winds become light then a lot more frost should have been recorded than it has.

 

The lack of snow has also been quite notable, not necessarily lying snow, but little in the way of falling snow.

 

Its also been an exceptionally dull winter so far, and also very wet.

 

Compared to the likes of 06/07 and 07/08 its been a much more interesting winter so far for lively conditions with no lengthy mild settled spell courtesy of high pressure to the south (the Bartlett high) the worst kind of synoptics in my book.

 

As a snow cold lover, I am not enjoying this winter one bit, but we have been very lucky since winter 07/08 with only winter 11/12 coming a little under par.

 

I'll be very surprised if we get to mid March and we haven't seen at least a few days of colder drier conditions perhaps with a bit snow courtesy of an airstream from between north and east, northerlies and easterlies are far more likely to surface from mid Feb onwards.

 

I'm waiting for the year when we both see a decent cold snowy winter and a decent warm sunny dry summer- have to go back to summer 95 and winter 95/96 for such an occasion. Recent good winters have been combined with poor summers, and good summers combined with poor winters for snow and cold - can't we get the best of both worlds for once!! summer 90 and winter 90/91 also a good combo but not on the scale of 95 and winter 96/96.

You are dead right there.  Winter 1995-96 saw a lot of cold synoptics and frequent cold spells from early December through to mid March, and that followed on from one of the hottest summers on record.  You are dead right there, a largely warm summer in 2013 has been followed by a poor winter, winter 2009-10 followed on from a rather mediocre summer in 2009 - it was mixed with a short hot spell late June / early July and a reasonably warm August though nothing too hot, with some very unsettled spells mixed in - certainly no 1995 or even 1990. 

 

Another fairly good combo was summer 1984 / winter 1984-85 although not as good as summer 1995 / winter 1995-96 combo.  Summer 1955 / winter 1955-56 was pretty good too.

 

Although summer 2011 was pretty cool and saw little in the way of heatwaves, but winter 2011-12 was nothing special.  Summer 2007 was very wet and mostly cool, but winter 2007-08 was rubbish.  So two uninspring summers in recent years that generally lacked hot spells overall were not followed by good winters, so not all the summers in recent years that wern't anything to write home about led to a decent winter.

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