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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Manchester Winter Index is just 5 at the moment.In 1988-89, it reached just 202006-07, it was 211997-98, it was 251989-90, it was 26

Out of interest do you know what February would have to be like to match 88/89, and what the 88/89 index was up to this point?

 

And you're right about the downgrades so far this winter. I haven't seen them happen to this extent before. We're out of luck at the moment.

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BBC WeatherView at 12.15am says that a brief cold spell will occur at the end of this week but normality will return this weekend onwards with fronts moving in from the Atlantic. 

 

Sigh. Very hard to get motivated for anything at the moment. Is it too much to ask for us to have one significant snow event this winter?

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Expect an upgrade on the EC 32 tomorrow night, it wont be a striking upgrade yet, and don't get too downhearted if someone talks about the control run being crap, expect to see forecasters describing the mean to drop markedly towards the 20th feb with a good few really fridgid runs in there.

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Manchester Winter Index is just 5 at the moment.In 1988-89, it reached just 202006-07, it was 211997-98, it was 251989-90, it was 26

 

It has been pretty dire here too this side of the Pennines, using the winter index:

 

2006/07: 18

1997/98: 161989/90: 91988/89: 8

2013/14: 5 (so far)

 

All of that is just from four air frosts, we've yet to see even sleet falling as yet.

 

Definitely agree with your other post, so far it has just felt like 'one of those' winters where nothing falls into place. 

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Out of interest do you know what February would have to be like to match 88/89, and what the 88/89 index was up to this point? And you're right about the downgrades so far this winter. I haven't seen them happen to this extent before. We're out of luck at the moment.

Just 1! That's how bad it was for wintry weather. However I had seen lying snow in November 1988, I have seen nothing so far. Further to that, at least the reason for the lack of wintry weather was the very mild nature of December 1988 and January 1989. We see Bartlett charts, no chance. Although December and January have been mild, they were not as mild as those two and we have had opportunities that seem to have gone AWOL, the northerly that vanished into thin air at the start of December, the polar maritime air around Christmas which brought a little bit of wintriness and a frost. Now we have been suckered by the high pressure to the east for the last few days, will it or won't it, suckered by polar maritime air coming in from the west.I feel like I have been made a mug by this winter, suckered by the charts. Every cold prospect has been downgraded next to nothing. Today is a prime example, a couple of days ago or so, it looked good for wintry showers, now it has turned into nothing.Really has been a Sod's law winter. Everything has been just on the wrong side of marginal, even minima temperatures have been just on the wrong side of freezing.I rather have a winter where you know where you stand such as with 1988-89, you see Bartlett, you know where you stand but not this type of winter, it's been horrendous compounded by the ruddy rain all the time.
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Temperatures generally between 8-12C and you've not had to turn on the heating?! Must be some insulation you have there as houses generally drop in temp towards outside temp when heating is off for long periods. I wouldn't fancy living in temperatures that low and have had the heating on all winter. House gets damp and cold otherwise.

 

Amusingly, where I live the winter max temperatures are almost always in that range (more like 9C-14C). Houses have thin wooden walls, single glazing, and no central heating. Can be dismal. We have 4 dehumidifiers in this house and I usually wear a down jacket indoors all winter.

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Expect an upgrade on the EC 32 tomorrow night, it wont be a striking upgrade yet, and don't get too downhearted if someone talks about the control run being crap, expect to see forecasters describing the mean to drop markedly towards the 20th feb with a good few really fridgid runs in there.

 

 

On the basis of the massive downgrades on the Stratospheric modelling and Ian Fergusson's latest post, scrap these thoughts, I am starting to think we might be doomed.

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Welcome to 'the fold'.

 

 

Lets put it this way, we are going to need upgrades very quickly if we are to get anything in meteorological winter, not necessarily trop wise yet, but certainly at 10hpa and 30 hpa, and the ECM to sing from same hym sheet, a good ECM 32 would also be a good starting point as well.

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Sorry for pessimism but I think that have we've had it for this winter. Even though this week looks to be the coldest of the winter so far, there isn't going to be any widespread snow - local snow showers maybe, but that's it. Furthermore the first week of February is trending towards another milder look, as shown in the 12Z.

 

Even if we get snow in March, it doesn't last. The sun is so strong that it just melts it into slush very quickly. So unfortunately it looks as if any signs of any signifiant snow has more or less gone out of the window...

 

would say so, but March and April can produce significant snow, last march did for me, can look very deep before we see the thaw from 10am,

 

there is also the last week of Feb, as the south will see no snow before mid Feb, (hopefully '14 not '15)

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I suppose, but what I think of as a "proper" snowfall is a snowfall of maybe 10+cm of snow that lasts for several days. You're right, we may still get a snowfall but I think that the risk of a proper significant snowfall has more or less gone.

Well you can't have experienced many of them if that is your threshold. Your avatar says Manchester, I live to the west of the conurbation and those type of snowfalls and to last that long are rare to say the least around here. Edited by Weather-history
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Sorry for my pessimism but I think that have we've had it for this winter now. Even though this week looks to be the coldest of the winter so far, there isn't going to be any widespread snow - local snow showers maybe, but that's it. Furthermore the first week of February is trending towards another milder look, as shown in the 12Z.

 

Even if we get snow in March, it doesn't last. The sun is so strong that it just melts it into slush very quickly. So unfortunately it looks as if any signs of any significant snow has more or less gone out of the window...

 

 

More difficult for you, although the fact you are not in the City Centre of Manchester is better, better if your in East Manchester, I don't think we have definitely had it and I am not basing my projections on the 240 H500 output, I am basing it on every strat warming getting downgraded nearer the time and especially Ian Fergusson's post, the fact that the top meteorologists have been watching but just don't buy it wheras I was hoping that their 'colder spells possible but mainly average' might just have been a holding forecast while they wait for significant strat warmings to come into range of MOREPS and ECM Ext (or not) and not wanting to jump the gun.

 

You can still get pasted in march without it melting, as said though, more difficult where you are, better elevation here but the magic 300m line meant last late march snow hardly melted at all for at least 24 hours, we melted on main roads here but still a great event and always possible.

 

You can still get really potent convective Easterlies right into March but obviously more difficult, but if your wanting one before the end of meteorological winter, you need to hope those strong warmings at 10mb come back and slice open the strat vortex and start counting down and soon, not writing it off but Ian's post worries me greatly.

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Well you can't have experienced many of them if that is your threshold. Your avatar says Manchester, I live to the west of the conurbation and those type of snowfalls and to last that long are rare to say the least around here.

 

 

I have to say my threshold is even bigger, and this is someone who lived in Birmingham and between end winter 96 and may 07, max was 2 inches.

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Well you can't have experienced many of them if that is your threshold. Your avatar says Manchester, I live to the west of the conurbation and those type of snowfalls and to last that long are rare to say the least around here.

As far as I'm concerned, the UK doesn't even experience proper winters - snow cover is far too infrequent and not even guaranteed every winter in a lot of places. A proper winter, in my opinion, would feature snow on the ground for more than a few weeks each winter - not necessarily all winter, but a big part of it. New York doesn't qualify as a proper winter climate in my opinion, since winters are unreliable - they can deliver giant falls, but even then, they are not guaranteed to last long.

 

Cities like Stockholm, Helsinki, Warsaw and Kiev qualify as proper winter climates in my opinion and everywhere in the UK falls considerably short.

Edited by cheese
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Well I am only 16 so I haven't experienced many heavy snowfalls, except for the more recent years. This is just what I would refer to as a widespread snowfall.

Did you not have anything last march?I am just a stones throw from you and we had a good dumping last march with huge drifts lasting well into april.March can match any month  for snow quantity.We have had many wintery spells in march and april!

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As far as I'm concerned, the UK doesn't even experience proper winters - snow cover is far too infrequent and not even guaranteed every winter in a lot of places. A proper winter, in my opinion, would feature snow on the ground for more than a few weeks each winter - not necessarily all winter, but a big part of it. New York doesn't qualify as a proper winter climate in my opinion, since winters are unreliable - they can deliver giant falls, but even then, they are not guaranteed to last long.

 

Cities like Stockholm, Helsinki, Warsaw and Kiev qualify as proper winter climates in my opinion and everywhere in the UK falls considerably short.

 

Yep I would class Chicago and especially Minneapolis as proper Winter climates too, New York City's Winters are generally a tad milder.

 

Yeah, the Strat temperature and the jetstream is what I based my evaluation off of and since I live in Failsworth (East Manchester) I can see snowfall more often than Manchester City Centre, but it is still quite low down. There is still time for it, but it better show it's hand pretty quickly. Posted Image

 

Yes when we get snow cover on this side of Manchester we can get quite a lot as seen in recent years.....but it's the getting it in the first place which seems to be the difficult thing this Winter, for all the UK. 

Edited by Gaz1985
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Scott, your best setup is a WNW cheshire Gap setup, like 20th Dec 2009, even 05 Jan 2010, Stockport area had over a foot then

 

20th Dec for me not even a flake, 05th Jan was better, around 8cms

 

I was in Salford about a 5 minute walk from Manchester City Centre then, I only got about an inch and a half before xmas then, nothing on the Thursday night, Nothing on the Friday, Rain on the Saturday (mortified as I thought it would be snow), an inch or so on the Sunday, got 6 inches from that 5th Jan Inciident, together with a 6 inch fall in Nov 2010 in my current location, in terms of level snow those were my biggest falls since 5th feb 96 (West Midlands), although I did get drifts of over a foot here late March 2013 but I would estimate only 4 inches level snow.

Yeah, the Strat temperature and the jetstream is what I based my evaluation off of and since I live in Failsworth (East Manchester) I can see snowfall more often than Manchester City Centre, but it is still quite low down. There is still time for it, but it better show it's hand pretty quickly. Posted Image

 

Failsworth best place in Manchester probably, the closer to Oldham the better.

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I go into Oldham everyday and when it does snow, you can really see a difference. Back on January 21, 2013 I remember like 5-7 cm of snow in Failsworth, but it was probably about 20 up in Oldham.

 

Was that the Monday?, we got absolutely battered here on a sunday night and I went to Oldham that Monday, it was only that much over the A62 though, aa bit less in Oldham Town Centre.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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I'm going to look through my winter weather records which dates back to 1983/84 and have a look to see if the term 'rather cold' or 'cold' hasn't been used from the 1st December to now - as so far this winter not 1 day has that term had to be used, unbelievable! 

 

Coldest day in the meteorological winter so far on the Essex Riviera has been 6.1c but the consistency of 'rather mild' or 'mild' days has been very frequent until recently. 

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What's been another notable feature of January is the homogeneity of maxima- there have been none below 5C or above 11C, with more than half in the 7-9C range.

 

The total temperature range all month is only about 14C which is one of the lowest of any month in recent years- the other two months which stand out for this, October 2004 and August 2008, were both much duller relative to average than this one. Clear nights where the temperature didn't drop as one would expect have been a plague this winter.

 

Noticed the same here. A very tedious month. 20 days have had maxima between 5.0C and 7.5CPosted Image  Lowest max: 3.8C on the 14th, highest max: 8.7C on the 8th. Between the 16th and 25th every day was between 5.3C and 7.0C.
 
Temperature range has just been 11.2C from -2.5C to 8.7C. Only January 1980 had a similarly low range and that was another desperately poor winter although there was at least some snow about at New Year. Yet to even see a flake in 2014.
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Yes it hasn't been very mild over the past few weeks - yes there has been a lack of frosts but we've had mostly single digit max temps which does feel chilly especially when its' been breezy or windy. The last few days the windchill hasn't been much above freezing and the last couple of mornings it has been below freezing. Hardly balmy.

Edited by Gaz1985
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It felt spring like today, birds singing and very warm, regretted putting a coat on but I thought it might rain so couldn't take any chances.

 

Its going to be blowtorch south westerlies until 10th feb, we desperately need a strat warming, it is up to a point but its just stagnating, without splitting the two sectors far enough apart, its a split but we need a great big area of high heights in between the two segments - over Greenland, 1mb charts look ok but no propagation.

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