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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Updated blog from Paul Hudson BBC Look North (Yorkshire and Lincolnshire) weather presenter

 

Beware February with a sting in its tail

 

With last week’s suggested cold spell by computer models (in particular by the usually reliable ECMWF model) failing to materialise, it will now take something exceptionally cold in February for winter as a whole not to end up in the mild category.

 

Based on the Met Office’s modern data set which started in 1910, December was the eighth mildest on record across the UK, and the mildest since 1988.

 

The warmth also shows up in Central England Temperature (CET) data, with December ranked 33rd in 356 years of data.

 

January is so far even more impressive, currently standing at 17th warmest since 1659 in the CET record as we head into the last third of the month.

 

But before we write off winter completely, it is often forgotten that February is statistically the coldest month of the year, and one of the driest.

 

Indeed in many eastern areas the second half of February is the driest period of the year.

 

This reminds us that the jet stream, which is normally at its most powerful during the first half of winter, often weakens in February increasing the risk of our weather being influenced by colder air from the north or the east, associated with higher pressure.

 

It’s impossible to say for sure, but it would be a surprise if there wasn’t at least one spell of cold and possible wintry weather in February to round off a winter which has been so far, contrary to all long range forecasts that I read back in autumn, remarkably snow and frost free.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Beware-February-with-a-sting-in-its-tail

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Final WSI outlook for winter

 

Above-Normal Temperatures to be the Rule Across Europe Remainder of Winter

 

Lack of Atlantic Blocking to Result in More Mild Westerly Flow

 

Andover, MA, 20 January 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, eastern Europe and western Russia for the February-April period, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to western France, Iberia and the UK.

According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The winter across Europe so far has been characterized by very strong westerlies, a lack of North Atlantic blocking, and generally mild weather. Although the current Scandinavian blocking episode has resulted in colder winter temperatures across northern latitudes, the general pattern is still not conducive for sustained and widespread cold. The two primary cold risks to the generally mild February forecasts involve the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the stratosphere, and we will be monitoring developments in advance of a possible update to our February forecast at the end of January. Heading into the spring, most of the dynamical models continue to strongly suggest a persistence of the strong westerlies across the North Atlantic into Europe, which would continue to limit any widespread cold risk.â€In February, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Slightly colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for western FranceSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for Iberia

 

http://www.wsi.com/d99d478d-39a5-4989-a742-5a4773c0b930/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Final WSI outlook for winter Above-Normal Temperatures to be the Rule Across Europe Remainder of Winter Lack of Atlantic Blocking to Result in More Mild Westerly Flow  Andover, MA, 20 January 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, eastern Europe and western Russia for the February-April period, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to western France, Iberia and the UK.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The winter across Europe so far has been characterized by very strong westerlies, a lack of North Atlantic blocking, and generally mild weather. Although the current Scandinavian blocking episode has resulted in colder winter temperatures across northern latitudes, the general pattern is still not conducive for sustained and widespread cold. The two primary cold risks to the generally mild February forecasts involve the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the stratosphere, and we will be monitoring developments in advance of a possible update to our February forecast at the end of January. Heading into the spring, most of the dynamical models continue to strongly suggest a persistence of the strong westerlies across the North Atlantic into Europe, which would continue to limit any widespread cold risk.â€In February, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Slightly colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for western FranceSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for Iberia http://www.wsi.com/d99d478d-39a5-4989-a742-5a4773c0b930/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

With Scandinavia and Eastern Europe less cold than normal, does that mean the UK's cold will come from the north?
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Summer is exactly the same amount of time away as it was at this point last year!, 

how long it is before we see 25c and hot sun for any prolonged time is anyones guess but the fact remains that summer is 4 months and 10 days away and nothing anyone can do to change that, be it heat or cold fans.

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I'm not enjoying this mild winter. I prefer very seasonal years. (i.e. cold, snowy winters followed by hot, sunny, thundery summers)

hi there i also love the snow!! but i dont want it unless its a proper job, i cant be botherd with a dusting. need enough to keep me off work haha

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Just watched the BBC weather at 10.30 pm and they have not hinted at any snow, apart from tops of the mountains in the far north!

 

Has to be said that the way this winter is going we'll all be needing a canoe rather than a sledge!

 

And, as for those pesky Yanks they get all the best weather! - how many of us would love a winter like they are experiencing this year! Ce La Vie, theres always next winter Posted Image Posted Image

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Just got back from Carlisle and cross fell had a covering of snow on the top!

As there should be in January at nearly 900m above sea level. If there wasn't things would be very grim indeed at lower levels!

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Who knows? I'm trying not to be pessimistic because we still have all of February and even March still to come.

Likewise, I have tried to remain positive but when you read (in the model discussion thread) some of the more experienced members throwing in the towel, you have to wonder whether we'll see a flake. Really hope I / they are wrong though...
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Likewise, I have tried to remain positive but when you read (in the model discussion thread) some of the more experienced members throwing in the towel, you have to wonder whether we'll see a flake. Really hope I / they are wrong though...

Yes, it does look like we are about to arrive at some sort of crunch point in that if the proper cold doesn't turn up in the charts early next week, it's a done deal — we can all go home. How sad is that?
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Yes, it does look like we are about to arrive at some sort of crunch point in that if the proper cold doesn't turn up in the charts early next week, it's a done deal — we can all go home. How sad is that?

It would be very sad indeed... Posted Image Posted Image

 

...Right now, if all we had was one really good dumping of snow this Winter I would be happy. If it could arrive on a Friday evening and be enjoyed by all over the weekend and then melt on Monday morning when we are all back at work that would do nicely! Posted Image

 

we can dream Posted Image Posted Image

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With the greatest respect Gibby. It's winter and has been since Mid-December, we have barely seen a single frost in lowland S.England and there hasn't been a flake for 99% of the UK so far this season

 

And most people in Britain are gratefulSure, those affected by flooding don't want more rain, but most people don't want any snow (or cold weather) at all!Edit: and 50% of the UK has seen snow. That 95% of the population live in the other 50% of the country (where snow isn't normal) is besides the point. I think more than 50% of the UK will see snow in the next week.  But not me.

Edited by Essan
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It's going to rain, we know. 

I have a roof that is leaking and no spare cash to have it fixed, so what.

Do we really need to be told page after page that flooding will be a concern in the MO thread?

Isn't that what weather forecasts are for?

Bah humbug.

Edited by Mucka
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It's going to rain, we know. 

I have a roof that is leaking and no spare cash to have it fixed, so what.

Do we really need to be told page after page that flooding will be a concern in the MO thread?

Isn't that what weather forecasts are for?

Bah humbug.

Actually, it's quite useful to be reminded that before the chance of snow, there is a significant risk of flooding. For me, though I am very interested in snow prospects, the timing of rainfall, amounts and longevity of rainfall that are being weighed up by the different models is both interesting and useful.

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And most people in Britain are gratefulSure, those affected by flooding don't want more rain, but most people don't want any snow (or cold weather) at all!Edit: and 50% of the UK has seen snow. That 95% of the population live in the other 50% of the country (where snow isn't normal) is besides the point. I think more than 50% of the UK will see snow in the next week.  But not me.

But we don't care about most people in Britain as this is a weather forum and most on here in winter do care about cold and snow.

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And most people in Britain are gratefulSure, those affected by flooding don't want more rain, but most people don't want any snow (or cold weather) at all!Edit: and 50% of the UK has seen snow. That 95% of the population live in the other 50% of the country (where snow isn't normal) is besides the point. I think more than 50% of the UK will see snow in the next week.  But not me.

 

Sure and that's absolutely fine, you may enjoy a persistently rainy/cloudy/dry/sunny and mild tempered climate year round - I and I'm willing to bet more than 50% of the people reading tonights MOD thread, don't. I beg to differ RE the 50% but regardless of that, MOST people that join weather websites do so to discuss a wide variety of weather events and in winter snow and cold ARE THEE event on the mind of those members, just like Sun, Storms and Fosters are during the summer.

 

Given that you don't enjoy snow and cold, I suspect you should have enjoyed this winter more than most for many a year and probably owe the likes of myself and the other snowheads the freedom of at least looking at the charts and hoping to get some colder and snowier weather to our shores without having to focus on the fact that a lot of the country is about as full of water as it physically could be, it's not to be rude or ignorant to anyone - it's just natural! 

 

Enjoy!

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Actually, it's quite useful to be reminded that before the chance of snow, there is a significant risk of flooding. For me, though I am very interested in snow prospects, the timing of rainfall, amounts and longevity of rainfall that are being weighed up by the different models is both interesting and useful.

 

You need reminding Joe?

I have absolutely no problem with people discussing as part of their MO analysis, you won't read me criticising them but by the same token I don't expect coldies to be criticised for not being overtaken with excitement at the prospect of rain falling in the UK in January or the prospect of flooding.

The flooding this year has been terrible no doubt but there is not year that doesn't go by without flooding somewhere in the UK and rain is an every day prospect here so of course chasing  snow is far more important to most.

People can write about the rain to their hearts content if they want to balance the thread but just don't expect me to do the same.

Edited by Mucka
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You need reminding Joe?

I have absolutely no problem with people discussing as part of their MO analysis, you won't read me criticising them but by the same token I don't expect coldies to be criticised for not being overtaken with excitement at the prospect of rain falling in the UK in January or the prospect of flooding.

The flooding this year has been terrible no doubt but there is not year that doesn't go by without flooding somewhere in the UK and rain is an every day prospect here so of course chasing  snow is far more important to most.

People can write about the rain to their hearts content if they want to balance the thread but just don't expect me to do the same.

I am not criticising the discussion of cold, but just promoting talk of rainfall totals as an equal part of the discussion. 

I am keen for cold and snow too, but also keen for the rain to stop as well, so my model interests are diverse! :)

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HI S.Inqu-

 

I think its a case of choose to ignore as opposed to not care.

 

I must admit whilst I have seen the flooding footage on TV ( & im sure its very bad for those in it) I am left feeling a little bit- is that it,......

 

I know, for the minority of people its a horrific experience- however the same can be said for all types of weather extremes in the UK,- be that snow, rain, FOG, lightning etc-

 

All scenarios have the ability to produce life threatening conditions, & the weather will be what it be without our impacts-

 

Its been a long mild wet winter & people are now skipping over the storms & rain- no matter how impactful they look in search of something more seasonal which for some just include some dry & cold weather-

 

s

 

Ironically the type of weather that people look for on here & regularly want to see happen is as life threatening ( if not more so ) for more of the general public that loaclised flooding...

I don’t think its relevant that it’s been mild and wet this winter, most of us on NW would be chasing cold and snow today even if the country had been ice bound for the last month and a half. Look at what happened in 2010, even after that frigid December people were still pulling their hair out when the rest of the winter wasn’t as bad. Personally I’m a cold weather fan have been since I was a teenager up to my neck in drifts in the winter of 78/79 and maybe because I was born in 62 but I’m also fascinated by all types of weather phenomena and occasionally I’m amazed by this forum, we could have a hurricane about to arrive and most NW members would still be ignoring it in the endless search for snow that almost never arrives, sometimes it’s a bit weird. What I find especially odd is, that if we don’t get a cold spell this winter NW members will put this winter down as boring and that’s one thing it has not been.

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