Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Thundery wintry showers]

With it being the wettest winter on record, in what circumstance could we have kept the precipitaion.......................................but have it as snow rather than rain? 

 

Maybe constant battlegrounds with dividing the line somewhere over the uk?

I think your suggestion is probably right- the ideal setup for this would probably be the one that we had in early to mid March 1947, with a succession of lows taking a southerly track underneath an extensive blocking high to the north and giving repeated snowfalls on the northern flank of the systems:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470306.gif

 

However, I don't think it would be possible, averaged nationally, to get a similarly wet winter to this one without most of the precipitation in the south falling as rain, because in such frontal situations we usually get rain/sleet on the southern flanks of the systems, and if the systems are positioned over southern areas, then we get drier conditions in the north- even when we get frequent snow showers heading well inland from the North Sea, overall precipitation totals tend not to be high over and to the west of high ground.

 

Another close approach would be the January 1984 setup with unusually cold airmasses coming across from Canada/Alaska from the west, with repeated deep lows moving across central and southern Britain and a mix of sunshine and snow showers to the north/west of the systems- on that occasion the long sea track over the Atlantic resulted in heavy snowfalls of convective origin penetrating right across northern Britain at regular intervals in addition to the frontal snowfalls- but again most of the precipitation to the south of the Midlands fell as rain rather than snow.

Edited February 21, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2nd March, could well be coldest day of the winter for most areas, still FI but looks like slack northerly and dry, could be lowest minimum as well

 

my lowest minimum last year was on 14th Mar

[Summer Sun]

2nd March, could well be coldest day of the winter for most areas, still FI but looks like slack northerly and dry, could be lowest minimum as well

 

my lowest minimum last year was on 14th Mar

 

Thats spring not winter

[March Blizzard]

Thats spring not winter

I think some people get a bit too hung up on this - March 2nd is still astronomical winter and temperatures are often on par with "official" meteorological winter months.I see no harm in people casually using the term "winter" in March if the conditions warrant it.Who knows, March has a half decent chance of becoming the coldest month of "winter" for the second year running...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thats spring not winter

 

I know but it still could be the coldest day of the season min and max in some areas, infact march could be coldest month of winter season for many members?

 

debate comes up most years, some will not agree but March is snowier/colder than Dec

[hillbilly]

2nd March, could well be coldest day of the winter for most areas, still FI but looks like slack northerly and dry, could be lowest minimum as well

 

my lowest minimum last year was on 14th Mar

Would be even more amazing it is possible that in some areas march could take the warmest day of the year and the coldest,in Whitby 1965 29th of march was the warmest day of the year at 25 deg!!!!!!

[Nick L]

Winter is defined as December, January and February in this country. If we started making it a grey area as to when the seasons start and end, then keeping comparable statistical records would be difficult.

[March Blizzard]

Winter is defined as December, January and February in this country. If we started making it a grey area as to when the seasons start and end, then keeping comparable statistical records would be difficult.

I agree, for statistical purposes it makes sense to define seasons by grouping whole calendar months. However, for general weather chit-chat I see no harm in being more liberal with the term "winter" (or any other season name).After all, how often do we hear people joyfully proclaim the arrival of "summer" when the clocks go forward at the end of March?I suppose how people view seasons is down to personal interpretation.It also depends on location, too. In much of the Arctic the "thermal" winter i.e. the 3 coldest months are Jan/Feb/Mar. On the other hand, most mid latitude locations are coldest in Dec/Jan/Feb.

[damianslaw]

Remarkable consistency in CET value for December, January and February all hovering close to the 6 degree mark - which is the mean value required for grass growth. No wonder we have seen early spring growth this year.

 

Daffodils are out in sheltered parts.. even in a mild winter its usually not until the first week of March we see them sprouting. Last year we had to wait until mid April! What a contrast.

 

The winter as a whole has been the most snowless since mmm not sure but a jolly long time. Recent mild winters such as 06/07, and 07/08 managed at least one morning with a snow cover, this year we have managed only 1 day with snow covering the ground for a few hours - very wet snow on the 31st Jan which was visible on the morning of 1 Feb before quickly disappearing. A most woeful statistic.

 

I think we have to go back to winter 91/92 for an equally snowless winter - but that one was much colder with a number of hard frosts. Probably winter 88/89 last one on a par with this one.

 

We were due a shocker, but no-one could have foreseen just how much of a shocker!

 

Winter 13/14 - one to be put in a box marked do not open - never to be seen again! - I hope!

[Nick L]

Well, the good thing is that it is not possible to get a worse winter than the one we've endured in terms of wintry weather.

Edited February 21, 2014 by Nick L

[March Blizzard]

Well, the good thing is that it is not possible to get a worse winter than the one we've endured in terms of wintry weather.

You'd hope so, although I get the impression that these days "all bets are off" when it comes to unusual weather.

[roys]

hi every one i am 61 years old and this is the wetest mildest winter i can remember no snow couple of light frost. a warning to all dog owners make sure your dog is up to date with vaccines as kennel cough parvo and distemper will be prevalent this spring.      

[MP-R]

debate comes up most years, some will not agree but March is snowier/colder than Dec

 

And I'm going to have openly disagree with you there because, quite simply, no it isn't.

 

Oxford (63 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/oxford.html

 

Durham (102 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/durham.html

 

December has lower maxima and minima in both the north and the south, there are more frosts in December also. Unfortunately there is no data for December but certainly average number of days with lying snow is higher in December simply because air and ground temperatures are colder more often and for longer.

 

You really need to drop this idea that March and April are wintry months. March 2003 and 2012 or April 2007 and 2011 weren't winter were they...

 

MP-R out.

Edited February 21, 2014 by MP-R

[I remember Atlantic 252]

And I'm going to have openly disagree with you there because, quite simply, no it isn't.

 

Oxford (63 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/oxford.html

 

Durham (102 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/durham.html

 

December has lower maxima and minima in both the north and the south, there are more frosts in December also. Unfortunately there is no data for December but certainly average number of days with lying snow is higher in December simply because air and ground temperatures are colder more often and for longer.

 

You really need to drop this idea that March and April are wintry months. March 2003 and 2012 or April 2007 and 2011 weren't winter were they...

 

MP-R out.

 

where the hell did I mention April!!!!!!!!!!

[March Blizzard]

And I'm going to have openly disagree with you there because, quite simply, no it isn't. Oxford (63 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/oxford.html Durham (102 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/durham.html December has lower maxima and minima in both the north and the south, there are more frosts in December also. Unfortunately there is no data for December but certainly average number of days with lying snow is higher in December simply because air and ground temperatures are colder more often and for longer. You really need to drop this idea that March and April are wintry months. March 2003 and 2012 or April 2007 and 2011 weren't winter were they... MP-R out.

To be fair, March has more days of falling snow/sleet than December throughout the UK, according to the Met Offices' own maps - that's one legitimate (and factual) parameter in which March is more "wintry" than December.

[Nick L]

You'd hope so, although I get the impression that these days "all bets are off" when it comes to unusual weather.

 

In terms of snow, I have seen zero days of falling or lying snow. So in that respect it is literally impossible to get a worse winter. And let's be honest, for the majority on here that's the only thing we look for

Edited February 21, 2014 by Nick L

[March Blizzard]

In terms of snow, I have seen zero days of falling or lying snow. So in that respect it is literally impossible to get a worse winter. And let's be honest, for the majority on here that's the only thing we look for

I suppose you're right! I wouldn't worry, we'll probably see a nationwide blizzard...in May.

[MP-R]

where the hell did I mention April!!!!!!!!!!

 

In heavens knows how many other discussions on the forum!

 

To be fair, March has more days of falling snow/sleet than December throughout the UK, according to the Met Offices' own maps - that's one legitimate (and factual) parameter in which March is more "wintry" than December.

 

Yeah you're probably right. I suppose I have my own location in mind. Seeing as snow mostly comes from northerlies in March which don't affect this area too commonly, December comes out snowier with snow possible from the NW, N, NE-SE and occasionally very cold W such as in December 2009.

[damianslaw]

Despite the winter being very mild, once again we have seen a winter pass by with a locked in quite southerly positioned Jetstream, something that has been notable since 07/08 which incidentally was a winter with marked similiarity to this one. However, unlike the last 5 years the positioned of the PV has prevented cold snowy conditions, indeed we were not far off seeing another preety cold snowy winter.. instead NE USA and East Canada got it.

 

Something has definitely changed since winter 07/08 in terms of seeing locked in anomalous jet stream pattern with blocking stuck in one place - this year over NE Pacific and little variance in general conditions.

 

Perhaps this winter will turn out to be a blip in a run of much colder winters with northern blocking in evidence and continuation of a southerly displaced Jetstream. The winter has been different in this respect to other very mild wet winters such 88/89, 89/90, 97/98, 99/00 etc where we saw much more influence from euro/azores high and the mild long fetch southwesterlies with the Jetstream much further to the northwest.

 

Cold snow lovers should take much comfort in this fact in terms of prospects for future winters, despite this winter turning out to be a shocker. Certainly much of USA and central/east Canada has seen a very cold winter, our luck ran out this year.

[March Blizzard]

In heavens knows how many other discussions on the forum!  Yeah you're probably right. I suppose I have my own location in mind. Seeing as snow mostly comes from northerlies in March which don't affect this area too commonly, December comes out snowier with snow possible from the NW, N, NE-SE and occasionally very cold W such as in December 2009.

Fair enough. There's no arguing with the stats - December is slightly colder than March, on average. However, I would not agree that March couldn't be described as "wintry" just because another month is slightly colder.With that being said, I still find it hard to believe that the UK recorded a lower temperature in March 2001 (-21.7C) than it did in December 2010 (-21.4C)! Yes, splitting hairs but remarkable nonetheless.

[hillbilly]

And I'm going to have openly disagree with you there because, quite simply, no it isn't.

 

Oxford (63 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/oxford.html

 

Durham (102 m AMSL) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/durham.html

 

December has lower maxima and minima in both the north and the south, there are more frosts in December also. Unfortunately there is no data for December but certainly average number of days with lying snow is higher in December simply because air and ground temperatures are colder more often and for longer.

 

You really need to drop this idea that March and April are wintry months. March 2003 and 2012 or April 2007 and 2011 weren't winter were they...

 

MP-R out.

March and april are not in the calendar winter but winter did not stop on feb 28 1947 and 2013 and april cannot produce snow!!!!! Maybe you didn't live in the pennines in the 3rd week of april 1981

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow Showers on the East coast.

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Unlikely, as the 850hPa temperatures are mostly around the -5C mark:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif

I'd expect mostly cloudy conditions with the odd bit of rain or sleet near the east coast.  If we could tap into that cold air over Scandinavia we'd certainly get widespread snow showers, as happened on the 11th March last year, but that would be out at T+432!

[feb1991blizzard]

-6c in your neck of the woods, nothing heavy granted, I mean we couldn't even generate decent convection with one of the late cold snaps last year with -12 uppers!!!

 

 

 

 

I cannot believe how useless the meteociel GFS PPN type charts are!!!!!

 

how on earth do they deduce that much snow from that height / uppers profile, It seems even I was being generous with my thoughts of some light snow showers for the east after TWS post.

 

 

 

[MP-R]

Fair enough. There's no arguing with the stats - December is slightly colder than March, on average. However, I would not agree that March couldn't be described as "wintry" just because another month is slightly colder.With that being said, I still find it hard to believe that the UK recorded a lower temperature in March 2001 (-21.7C) than it did in December 2010 (-21.4C)! Yes, splitting hairs but remarkable nonetheless.

 

That's an interesting stat. I'm guessing snowfields, clear skies, no wind and very cold uppers. And of course March can produce wintry spells as can September with summery spells but there's just no denying that March is about as wintry and December isn't.

 

March and april are not in the calendar winter but winter did not stop on feb 28 1947 and 2013 and april cannot produce snow!!!!! Maybe you didn't live in the pennines in the 3rd week of april 1981

 

I hear you. That wasn't really the point I was making. Obviously seasons don't change on the exact meteorological date that it does. Can't say I did - in fact I wasn't even born haha.

 

Anyways, so that this debate doesn't go off track, I will just reiterate that December is colder and snowier than March (at least in this neck of the woods). If I count the number of the Marches in the 2000s that have produced lying/lasting snow here from a northerly I arrive at 2006. If I count the number of Decembers in the 2000s that have produced the same I arrive at 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2010. If I do the same for easterlies, March only receives 2001 whereas December receives 2002, 2005, 2009 and 2010.

 

I will happily accept however that winter probably holds on longer in the north.