Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I just really hope that the forecast for Tuesday here is correct. 19.5mm of precipitation with a 76% chance of snow. But like every other sign of cold this winter, it will probably go out of the window in the next update.

 

as expected by a post on the model thread, tonights ECMWF has toned snow risk down, Feb is a write off for snow at low levels in the south

 

2014, Southern UK, on 1st march will be wettest Feb of all time

[virtualsphere]

This certainly has been a vile winter (unless you're a duck) - my son has recently taken an interest in the moon, and I realised this evening while putting him to bed that I haven't even been able to look out of the window to show him the moon since well before Christmas because it has always been raining, or at least cloudy!

 

Let's put a positive spin on it from an amateur perspective - for surface weather, I'd take even a winter like 1988-89 over this one, but from a synoptic point of view there are some crumbs of comfort for cold weather fans which can be taken into next year.  Firstly, we have seen some signs of blocking to the north developing once again even without the best stratospheric conditions - albeit in the wrong place to help us gain any cold in the UK.  We've seen cold air displaced to the south, but affecting the US rather than our part of the world.  We've also seen a Scandi high, but without the right overall synoptic pattern to bring the cold to us from the east.  We've seen the jetstream further south again, and instead of a prolonged Bartlett high scenario with lows pushing across to the north we have seen the depressions track further south - unfortunately for us, right over the UK in many cases.  In terms of confidence of a cold spell in forthcoming winters, I'd rather be in 2013-14 than 1988-89, even though we've had to endure some awful surface conditions.

 

We've seen two prolonged notable cold periods in the recent past - Nov / Dec 2010 and Feb - Apr 2013 - if either of these had occurred between mid-Dec and mid-Feb, we would have seen a severe winter spell.  

 

Another observation of interest is the tendency in March last year for significant snowfall from undercutting lows against a block to the north and, although it didn't happen, there were signs in the models that we could have come close to this situation again towards the end of January if the jetstream hadn't been too strong.  Something to look out for next year if we end up with a weaker PV and Atlantic jet.

 

CET for Winter 1795-6 = 6.2C  

I wonder if the synoptics were similar to this year?  

[Weather-history]

 We've seen two prolonged notable cold periods in the recent past - Nov / Dec 2010 and Feb - Apr 2013 - if either of these had occurred between mid-Dec and mid-Feb, we would have seen a severe winter spell.   

November-December 2010 was a severe winter spell or even two. The CET for late November-Christmas 2010 was colder than January 1940 which everyone recognises as a severe winter month.

[North-Easterly Blast]

November-December 2010 was a severe winter spell or even two. The CET for late November-Christmas 2010 was colder than January 1940 which everyone recognises as a severe winter month.

Winter 2010-11 was notable for having an exceptional cold spell at the start rather than for being notable for being a cold winter overall, as the rest of the winter after Xmas 2010 wasn't special and was certainly very dissapointing compared to the pre Xmas spell and most of the previous winter in 2009/10.  Its the same with winter 1986-87, that was notable for having a two week severely cold spell close to the mid-point, but apart from that, the rest of the winter didn't bring much.  These two examples show that a winter can bring a severe spell of two weeks or up to a month even if the winter is otherwise nothing special.

 

Certainly the extended winter of 2012-13 was notable for being cold overall, as cold spells were more spread out through the winter at least from mid January until early April, and you could even add in that there was also a cold spell in early December.  1939-40 was notable for being a cold winter overall, as well as that sub zero January, as that winter had cold spells spread from the later part of December up until for the most part of February.

 

Winter 2012-13 showed great interest over the three month period from January to April, and even in early December.

Edited February 7, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast

[Bristawl Si]

Winter 2010-11 was notable for having an exceptional cold spell at the start rather than for being notable for being a cold winter overall, as the rest of the winter after Xmas 2010 wasn't special and was certainly very dissapointing compared to the pre Xmas spell and most of the previous winter in 2009/10.  Its the same with winter 1986-87, that was notable for having a two week severely cold spell close to the mid-point, but apart from that, the rest of the winter didn't bring much.  These two examples show that a winter can bring a severe spell of two weeks or up to a month even if the winter is otherwise nothing special.

 

Certainly the extended winter of 2012-13 was notable for being cold overall, as cold spells were more spread out through the winter at least from mid January until early April, and you could even add in that there was also a cold spell in early December.  1939-40 was notable for being a cold winter overall, as well as that sub zero January, as that winter had cold spells spread from the later part of December up until for the most part of February.

 

Winter 2012-13 showed great interest over the three month period from January to April, and even in early December.

Winter 2012/13 was rubbish down here. A bit colder than normal; went on for ages but was dry, apart from a few days in mid-Jan when we had snow.

This winter ranks alongside the early/mid 70s in my view. Wet and not cold (wouldnt call it overly mild, despite what official CET stats might say - cold nights have been missing- daytime temps only a little above average).

Cold March & April this year? Sincerely hope not. Warm, early Spring my preference now.

[virtualsphere]

November-December 2010 was a severe winter spell or even two. The CET for late November-Christmas 2010 was colder than January 1940 which everyone recognises as a severe winter month.

 

Agree - the temperatures recorded in Nov / Dec 2010 would have been exceptional even if they were recorded January or February, and it was great to experience such weather at that time of year which was unprecedented and very seasonal.  I just can't help but wonder what temperatures would have been recorded if the synoptic pattern had occurred a month later and been Dec into Jan.  Especially given that we had a very cold March last year, after such a long period with very little notable cold between 1997 and 2008, the occurrence of two exceptional months either side of the Jan / Feb period makes me wonder if we will see something occur at just the right time for optimum cold in the near future.  

 

Perhaps not, or perhaps we'll be unlucky and get another 2013-14 winter or experience a very cold summer month, but the recent spells of exceptional weather (rainfall, cold, warmth - e.g. April 2011, etc.) suggest anything is possible while synoptic patterns continue to be so persistent!

 

What I'd actually like to see is a long spell of dry weather regardless of temperature...  I'm too young to remember summer 1976 but remember reading that the heavens opened at the end of the drought.  Maybe we'll see a reverse scenario this time and some prolonged dry conditions after this wet spell!

[hillbilly]

Agree - the temperatures recorded in Nov / Dec 2010 would have been exceptional even if they were recorded January or February, and it was great to experience such weather at that time of year which was unprecedented and very seasonal.  I just can't help but wonder what temperatures would have been recorded if the synoptic pattern had occurred a month later and been Dec into Jan.  Especially given that we had a very cold March last year, after such a long period with very little notable cold between 1997 and 2008, the occurrence of two exceptional months either side of the Jan / Feb period makes me wonder if we will see something occur at just the right time for optimum cold in the near future.  

 

Perhaps not, or perhaps we'll be unlucky and get another 2013-14 winter or experience a very cold summer month, but the recent spells of exceptional weather (rainfall, cold, warmth - e.g. April 2011, etc.) suggest anything is possible while synoptic patterns continue to be so persistent!

 

What I'd actually like to see is a long spell of dry weather regardless of temperature...  I'm too young to remember summer 1976 but remember reading that the heavens opened at the end of the drought.  Maybe we'll see a reverse scenario this time and some prolonged dry conditions after this wet spell!

There is no question that nov/dec 10 was exceptional for temps but its arguable to compare to jan 1940 or other severe periods as there wasn't large snowfalls and practically no wind...yes no wind ,which is what makes the word severe in my book and it makes things called snowdrifts,unlike dec 10.You say you do not remember 1976 summer ,surely you remember summer 1989,amazing after 4 years of rain or summer 1995,every bit as good as 76 after a very wet winter!

[virtualsphere]

There is no question that nov/dec 10 was exceptional for temps but its arguable to compare to jan 1940 or other severe periods as there wasn't large snowfalls and practically no wind...yes no wind ,which is what makes the word severe in my book and it makes things called snowdrifts,unlike dec 10.You say you do not remember 1976 summer ,surely you remember summer 1989,amazing after 4 years of rain or summer 1995,every bit as good as 76 after a very wet winter!

 

Yes, I'd take a repeat of summer 1989 or 1995, or even 2013 which was a big improvement on summers 2007,8,9,11,12.  A dry spring would be nice first as long as it isn't followed by a wet summer - far too many of those recently!

 

Interesting comment re. snowfalls, I think some places in the NE did well in Nov-Dec 2010 due to convective snowfall.  We did well here for snow in 2010, but it built up over time with several smaller falls rather than a blizzard with high winds which is something that has been missing from recent cold spells in the south.

[sundog]

Last summer was the warmest since summer 2006,this winter has been the wettest and mildest since winter 2006/7.  Wouldnt be surprised if we get a warm dry April like April 2007. Hope we dont have a summer like summer 2007 though.

[Summer Sun]

Glencoe has more snow than Rosa Khutor in Sochi and Whistler in Canada

 

Glencoe, Scotland

 

Upper slopes 340cm

 

Lower slopes160cm

 

Canada, Whistler

 

Upper slopes 126cm

 

Lower slopes 126cm

 

Rosa Khutor, Sochi

 

Upper slopes 260cm

 

Lower slopes 59cm

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26092170

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just looking at the upper pattern over the last 3 weeks, it's been far from a typical mild wet winter set up, infact, we really have been very close to some great winter synoptics. The heights have been there to our north, we've had plenty of precep, but the trough was just a few hundred miles too far to the north west

 

Last 3 weeks .................... ................... .Same period ending 2008

 

Northern blocking never too far away for the foreseable future, but we may still remain frustratingly on the wrong side of things for now.

[Froze were the Days]

Truly dire winter - this one will go down for rain and wind to what 62/63 and 1976 did for snow/cold and heat respectively.

 

Most remarkable thing here other than the constant rainfall is the complete lack of anything cold (even for a day) which didn't even happen in some of the mildest winters, coldest day here this winter has had a max of 6.1c - unbelievable!!

[Summer of 95]

Truly dire winter - this one will go down for rain and wind to what 62/63 and 1976 did for snow/cold and heat respectively.

 

Most remarkable thing here other than the constant rainfall is the complete lack of anything cold (even for a day) which didn't even happen in some of the mildest winters, coldest day here this winter has had a max of 6.1c - unbelievable!!

The lack of temperature variation this winter has been astonishing- since Christmas all bar 2 days have had a max between 5 and 10C, and all bar 5 a min between 1 and 6C. There hasn't been the strings of 12C days we got in many of the 90s/00s winters, but the lack of low temperatures- max and min- has certainly been unprecedented in any winter of the last 25 years here. Even the worst of the mild winters managed the odd day that struggled to rise above freezing, but this year there's been no max below 3C and only 1 below 5C. As well as cold uppers, inversion conditions have been notable by their absence- even clear nights have struggled to freeze and it's been over 2 weeks since the last air frost now.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is currently just 5

It got to 20 in 1988-89

I think there is a good chance this winter could hit a new low.

[Froze were the Days]

The lack of temperature variation this winter has been astonishing- since Christmas all bar 2 days have had a max between 5 and 10C, and all bar 5 a min between 1 and 6C. There hasn't been the strings of 12C days we got in many of the 90s/00s winters, but the lack of low temperatures- max and min- has certainly been unprecedented in any winter of the last 25 years here. Even the worst of the mild winters managed the odd day that struggled to rise above freezing, but this year there's been no max below 3C and only 1 below 5C. As well as cold uppers, inversion conditions have been notable by their absence- even clear nights have struggled to freeze and it's been over 2 weeks since the last air frost now.

 

Yep agree had very little spread between daily maxes and mins throughout January and if anything the temp spread so far for this Feb is even 'tighter' varying from 9.5c to 4.5c for the first 8 days. I haven't had a ground or air frost now for 17 nights!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Surprisingly, I've had worse winters in Ireland. Granted it's been quite poor, but I've still seen sleet falling several times, snow falling twice, snow lying once and have probably had over a dozen ground frosts and half a dozen air frosts.

The coming Tuesday has potential for more cold and snow, perhaps the first proper covering of the winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just looking at the upper pattern over the last 3 weeks, it's been far from a typical mild wet winter set up, infact, we really have been very close to some great winter synoptics. The heights have been there to our north, we've had plenty of precep, but the trough was just a few hundred miles too far to the north west

 

Last 3 weeks .................... ................... .Same period ending 2008

 

Northern blocking never too far away for the foreseable future, but we may still remain frustratingly on the wrong side of things for now.

 

Yep, I intimated as much a couple of weeks ago. In terms of general height anomalies we've been very very close to seeing a near perfect set up for a myriad of 'right side of marginal' snow events. The positioning of that Canadian vortex has been the spoiler and I don't think anyone predicted just how intense it would be. Even though both of our winter forecasts were wrong, funnily enough they weren't a million miles away in terms of synoptics. On the ground, as it were, they may as well have been though!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Tuesday is looking good for the first sleet/snow of the winter quarter in the Thirsk/Northallerton area although I don't expect to see any snow lying.  It all depends on whether or not we get any dry slots coinciding with the cold pool of air (-6 to -8C 850hPa, normally cold enough for wintriness in a showery westerly flow).

 

I've just accumulated the January stats for Sandhutton and while December was more anomalously warm by day than by night, the reverse was true during January, when above-average sunshine was more confined to the south-east of the country and Met Office anomaly maps show most of inland North Yorkshire as having had slightly below average sunshine.  The mean max was 1.5C down on the December value but the mean min was just 0.2C below.  I also recorded 100mm of rain, not as anomalously wet as some parts of the country, but still exceptionally high, especially for a westerly month where we normally get some shelter due to the Pennines.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[AderynCoch]

Just looking at the upper pattern over the last 3 weeks, it's been far from a typical mild wet winter set up, infact, we really have been very close to some great winter synoptics. The heights have been there to our north, we've had plenty of precep, but the trough was just a few hundred miles too far to the north west

 

Last 3 weeks .................... ................... .Same period ending 2008

 

Northern blocking never too far away for the foreseable future, but we may still remain frustratingly on the wrong side of things for now.

That's what's so frustrating about our climate in general: the fact that we so often miss out by a whisker, not just in winter but in summer too.

 

You don't get disappointed by the lack of snow if you live somewhere like the Amazon Rainforest, nor do you expect to get beach weather if you spend a summer at the South Pole - because it's just not possible. Here it's possible but you spend most of the time being mocked by the weather gods.

 

Maybe someone could change the title of this thread so that the word "Winter" is bookended by quotation marks.

Edited February 8, 2014 by AderynCoch

[virtualsphere]

That's what's so frustrating about our climate in general: the fact that we so often miss out by a whisker, not just in winter but in summer too.

 

You don't get disappointed by the lack of snow if you live somewhere like the Amazon Rainforest, nor do you expect to get beach weather if you spend a summer at the South Pole - because it's just not possible. Here it's possible but you spend most of the time being mocked by the weather gods.

 

Very true indeed, but that's what makes it so special when it arrives

[AderynCoch]

That's of little consolation at the moment!

[Weather-history]

"Great rain had fallen without any frost or seasonable cold, not only in England, but in Sweden and the most northern parts, being here near as warm as at Midsummer in some years..."

From John Evelyn's diary of January 1662

[Eastwoods]

Just to add to that WH, Samuel Pepys describes frost fairs and ice skating on the Thames during the winter 1662/63. Not wanting to link these together but one can always hope that next winter Boris Johnson can swap his bike for a pair of ice skates!!

[> mark]

I managed to throw a snowball in Sweden last week and there is a reasonable covering in Norway at the moment but as the locals in both countries say ........ it's been a warm winter for them also!

[Bobby]

Just to add to that WH, Samuel Pepys describes frost fairs and ice skating on the Thames during the winter 1662/63. Not wanting to link these together but one can always hope that next winter Boris Johnson can swap his bike for a pair of ice skates!!

 

Remember the Thames was a different Thames back then, slower flowing and not as deep. Even if we had a repeat of some of the coldest winters of the little Ice Age it would be a struggle, maybe impossible to get those London frost fairs again. Maybe some frost fairs in other parts of the country though, imagine if the Somerset levels today froze solid! I wonder if that has happened before.