Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Gray-Wolf]

 

Doesn't seem to be an amazingly strong correlation over the British Isles.

 

Also....it looks opposite to what might be expected. Negative correlation would imply that as QBO goes up, surface temperature goes down.

 

 

Remember the jet will drift north as we move through spring into summer so if the position/amplitude remains the same it'll be just fine? As it is I think we'll see the ENSO forecast alter the odds of Nino in late summer (we've already moved from neutral to 50/50 neutral/nino) as we move into spring and the forecast becomes more reliable ( autumn/winter forecasts are not too hot for the 'extended' punts?)?

 

So the jet to our north plunging into a trough over the continent and plenty of 'average' ,but a damn sight drier, weather for summer?

 

The rest of the winter? Well more of the same. I'm not in agreement with the AO driving things here, I think the AO merely 'describes' the situation and that the High over the north Pacific sets up the Jet's behaviour from there on in? If so that High looks well planted so the same will continue with jet troughs over the U.S. and then an invigorated Jet across the Atlantic keeping us in a westerly, wet regime until the spring allows the jet to migrate north and the storm tracks to follow it allowing the South to dry out at last!

Edited January 29, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[spindrift1980]

The ski centres enjoying 250-300 cm of snow breaking previous records of 09 and 10 and the rest uk experiencing one of the mildest winters. has this Extreme contrast happened before?.

 

Often the winters with the largest build-ups of snow on the Scottish mountains are those in which the low ground experiences little snowfall.  The period of westerly/south-westerly storms in December and general zonal pattern have obviously been very wet but the uppers have been low enough to keep the vast majority of high altitude precipitation falling as snow.  It's worth bearing in mind that ski-ing in Scotland relies primarily on drifting and retention of snow in areas with natural snow-holding capabilities (the figures you quote are level depths, I believe, and there will be drifts many times deeper) and so the winds have played their part in creating drifts which will not disappear readily when the freezing level rises.  The coldest spells in winter, on the other hand, are often much drier and calmer.  Having said that, this winter has been an extreme example of this not untypical pattern, with almost no snow on low ground but with the south-westerly sourced air not being mild enough to cause frequent or severe thaws or cause rain rather than snow to fall at high altitude.  I would need to remind myself of some of the previous papers which have been written on the subject, but 2000/1 (and to a lesser extent 2007/8) spring to mind as winters which saw particularly copious snowfall at high altitude but a notable lack of low ground wintriness for much of the winter.

 

It's also worth noting that the two ski centres which have had the biggest accumulations this winter have been those in the west - Nevis and Glencoe.  Cairngorm has done pretty well too, being at high altitude, but of the other eastern centres Glenshee has had a fairly average stop-start season (though it looks healthy at the moment) and the lowest (at 2090ft asl) and most north-eastern of the centres, the Lecht, has seldom had enough snow to open at all, though it was also looking much better yesterday and I think they might be intending to open tomorrow.

Edited January 29, 2014 by spindrift1980

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some very good points here- just a small correction, I think you mean 1999/00 rather than 2000/01, as that was a very "westerly" winter with some big snowfalls in the Highlands in December and February, and 41 snow patches survived until the following winter according to a paper in Weather.  The most remarkable season that I've come across for Scottish snow retention was the 1993/94 one which had frequent heavy snowfalls from westerly-driven conditions in December, January, March and early April.

[boywonder]

Often the winters with the largest build-ups of snow on the Scottish mountains are those in which the low ground experiences little snowfall.  The period of westerly/south-westerly storms in December and general zonal pattern have obviously been very wet but the uppers have been low enough to keep the vast majority of high altitude precipitation falling as snow.  It's worth bearing in mind that ski-ing in Scotland relies primarily on drifting and retention of snow in areas with natural snow-holding capabilities (the figures you quote are level depths, I believe, and there will be drifts many times deeper) and so the winds have played their part in creating drifts which will not disappear readily when the freezing level rises.  The coldest spells in winter, on the other hand, are often much drier and calmer.  Having said that, this winter has been an extreme example of this not untypical pattern, with almost no snow on low ground but with the south-westerly sourced air not being mild enough to cause frequent or severe thaws or cause rain rather than snow to fall at high altitude.  I would need to remind myself of some of the previous papers which have been written on the subject, but 2000/1 (and to a lesser extent 2007/8) spring to mind as winters which saw particularly copious snowfall at high altitude but a notable lack of low ground wintriness for much of the winter.

 

It's also worth noting that the two ski centres which have had the biggest accumulations this winter have been those in the west - Nevis and Glencoe.  Cairngorm has done pretty well too, being at high altitude, but of the other eastern centres Glenshee has had a fairly average stop-start season (though it looks healthy at the moment) and the lowest (at 2090ft asl) and most north-eastern of the centres, the Lecht, has seldom had enough snow to open at all, though it was also looking much better yesterday and I think they might be intending to open tomorrow.

 

 

Glencoe featured in worlds snowiest resorts today.

 

Amazing snow in cairngorm as well.

 

 

Glenshee Huge drifts..!!

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by boywonder

[spindrift1980]

Some very good points here- just a small correction, I think you mean 1999/00 rather than 2000/01, as that was a very "westerly" winter with some big snowfalls in the Highlands in December and February, and 41 snow patches survived until the following winter according to a paper in Weather.  The most remarkable season that I've come across for Scottish snow retention was the 1993/94 one which had frequent heavy snowfalls from westerly-driven conditions in December, January, March and early April.

 

Yes, it was 1999/2000 I was thinking of, thanks.  Will be interesting to see how the late-lying snow patches fare this year as the big westerly/south-westerly storms have deposited much snow on aspects east through north, which get least sunshine and where snow persists longest.

 

That spring of 1994 was the one where (just short of my 14th birthday) I was first introduced to the joys of hillwalking, so I didn't realise at the time that not every April and May wouldn't feature that level of snow cover!

Edited January 29, 2014 by spindrift1980

[Weather-history]

I recall reading on this forum and also the UKWeatherWorld forum about how one BBC forecast on the 18th January 2007 (when there were severe gales in many parts of the country, flooding in the west, and ironically, some wet snow over the Scottish Lowlands with a covering at Glasgow Airport) ended with, "But at least it will be mild". I haven't heard that phrase much for a while but then again I haven't watched or listened to media forecasts much since around 2004/05.

Oh boy, I remember that well, I think it was Daniel Corbett. An ill thought out comment when temperatures were totally irrelevant considering the death, damage and chaos there was. Edited January 29, 2014 by Weather-history

[Dusk1983]

Don't feed the troll.

Hardly a troll. Yes I'm a weather enthusiast but I'm also someone who has to use public transport and pay heating bills. I can't speak for everyone but certainly is my daily life, given the things I've mentioned most people are very pleased to have a mild winter.Doesn't mean we don't like cold weather but you can't argue that there are many benefits to a mild winter.

[Weather-history]

Hardly a troll. Yes I'm a weather enthusiast but I'm also someone who has to use public transport and pay heating bills. I can't speak for everyone but certainly is my daily life, given the things I've mentioned most people are very pleased to have a mild winter.Doesn't mean we don't like cold weather but you can't argue that there are many benefits to a mild winter.

Actually I'm finding people are sick of the rain! Edited January 29, 2014 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Dusk1983 another one for the ignore list

[damianslaw]

A lot of time yet to see a cold spell. Look at last March for instance..

 

Its the same story in summer, by late July if we haven't seen a decent warm spell, people start saying that there is no chance of any warm weather this year... mmm look at late Sept 2011..

 

People are too quick to dismiss things.. as we know the weather will continue to throw surprises when we least expect it.

 

I keep saying I'll be very surprised if we get to the end of March and haven't experienced at least a few days of cold wintry weather - it might be March when we see such weather..  Pays well to look at some of the synoptics from yesteryear for the back end of Feb and early March, a number of very mild winters have seen wintry synoptics at the turn of the new season. Good examples include 1993, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006., and we should never discount a cold snowy sharp shock occurring in April.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A lot of time yet to see a cold spell. Look at last March for instance..

 

Its the same story in summer, by late July if we haven't seen a decent warm spell, people start saying that there is no chance of any warm weather this year... mmm look at late Sept 2011..

 

People are too quick to dismiss things.. as we know the weather will continue to throw surprises when we least expect it.

 

I keep saying I'll be very surprised if we get to the end of March and haven't experienced at least a few days of cold wintry weather - it might be March when we see such weather..  Pays well to look at some of the synoptics from yesteryear for the back end of Feb and early March, a number of very mild winters have seen wintry synoptics at the turn of the new season. Good examples include 1993, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006., and we should never discount a cold snowy sharp shock occurring in April.

 

I never do, Snow is more likely in march than Nov to Jan, more likely in Apr than Nov/ Dec

[cheese]

I never do, Snow is more likely in march than Nov to Jan, more likely in Apr than Nov/ Dec

I don't wish to sound like a dog with a bone, but I really wish you would stop repeating this. March snow is more likely than November snow, but not January snow. Falling snow is a little more likely in April than November, but lying snow is pretty rare in most places - averaging less than 1 a year in both April and November, but I'd put money on seeing snow lying in November over April.

Edited January 29, 2014 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As I have said though, Jan is average zonal month, westerlies which does not produce snow for low levels in the south, March is less Atlantic dominated, more blocking, colder seas, way more northerlies/easterlies so surely that makes March snowier (south)

 

Suppose I shouldn't be basing it on low levels south where I am, oop norf will be different I'm sure, Jan zonal westerlies more likely to give snow than march easterlies (dry)

Edited January 29, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[damianslaw]

As I have said though, Jan is average zonal month, westerlies which does not produce snow for low levels in the south, March is less Atlantic dominated, more blocking, colder seas, way more northerlies/easterlies so surely that makes March snowier (south)

 

Suppose I shouldn't be basing it on low levels south where I am, oop norf will be different I'm sure, Jan zonal westerlies more likely to give snow than march easterlies (dry)

 

In England and Wales I would say February is often the most likely month to produce snow cover with a less active atlantic and SST's nearing there coldest temp. In Scotland its a split between Jan and Feb with Dec on both fronts lagging way behind.

March in the north often is snowier than December especially the first half - northerlies pack a bigger punch in March than they do in December, but the sun gets to work much quicker - though last March proved snow can stick on low ground even under a sunny sky.

 

Northerly and easterly airstreams are far more likely to surface from mid Feb onwards, compared to Nov-Jan which is renowned for being a period of the year dominated by the atlantic and it takes significant forces to change this. Late Nov -Dec 10 being an exceptional case.

 

We've all experienced those nagging easterlies in April.. far more so than in December and January.

[cheese]

As I have said though, Jan is average zonal month, westerlies which does not produce snow for low levels in the south, March is less Atlantic dominated, more blocking, colder seas, way more northerlies/easterlies so surely that makes March snowier (south)

 

Suppose I shouldn't be basing it on low levels south where I am, oop norf will be different I'm sure, Jan zonal westerlies more likely to give snow than march easterlies (dry)

No. January is snowier than March everywhere. Most low-level locations in England average less than 1 day of snow lying in March, compared to 2-4 in January. Falling sleet/snow is around the same in the far south of England - say, London southwards - but once you go north of London, January still has more days of sleet/snow falling than March.

 

You're hardly low-level either at 103m asl - much higher than myself - close to sea level.

Edited January 29, 2014 by cheese

[Thundery wintry showers]

As I have said though, Jan is average zonal month, westerlies which does not produce snow for low levels in the south, March is less Atlantic dominated, more blocking, colder seas, way more northerlies/easterlies so surely that makes March snowier (south)

 

Suppose I shouldn't be basing it on low levels south where I am, oop norf will be different I'm sure, Jan zonal westerlies more likely to give snow than march easterlies (dry)

 

Northerly and north-westerly airstreams tend to be more potent in March than in December and associated showery or frontal activity more commonly produces snow, and homegrown convection is more likely inland rather than seeing showers restricted to north-facing coasts.  However, snow cover is less likely to last long because of the stronger sunshine which tends to lift the air temperature well above freezing and punch holes in a thin snow cover more quickly.

 

Easterlies with an arctic continental source are also at least as likely to bring snow, but conversely, polar continental easterlies are less likely to bring snow in March than in December because the continent warms up.  Many "easterly" Marches end up dry and cloudy with limited amoiunts of snow- last year's was unusual for its persistent emphasis on arctic continental sourced easterlies.

[dec10snow]

Absolutely loving this mild Winter, as are most people I know. Minimum of transport disruption, not needing to use much heating - much, much needed in these financially straightened times - and not needing to use Winter coats.Easier to be outside, easier to travel, safer and cheaper. next up... Roll on Spring :-)

Less travel disruption?! Definitely not down here in the SW! The high winds and floods has led to a LOT of disruption for all sorts of travel! When it snows you can still drive across the Somerset levels and to other villages around, now.... I wouldn't risk it if I were you!Although, it's not just there, as I'm sure you're aware, but what do you expect with many people reporting around 250mm for Jamuary so far; and this added onto the end of December!

[cheese]

Less travel disruption?! Definitely not down here in the SW! The high winds and floods has led to a LOT of disruption for all sorts of travel! When it snows you can still drive across the Somerset levels and to other villages around, now.... I wouldn't risk it if I were you!

Although, it's not just there, as I'm sure you're aware, but what do you expect with many people reporting around 250mm for Jamuary so far; and this added onto the end of December!

Most people I know are just sick of the rain - the temperature is irrelevant.

 

Do you understand, rain? Get lost. Sling ya hook. Get bent. Nobody wants you and nobody likes you. Capeche?

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

David Cameron bales out flood victims on the Somerset Levels

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/456887/David-Cameron-bales-out-flood-victims-on-the-Somerset-Levels

 

Beware storm Bridget setting in to cause even MORE flooding

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/362840/Beware-storm-Bridget-setting-in-to-cause-even-MORE-flooding

 

Another Storm to Batter Ireland and UK

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/another-storm-to-batter-irelan/22682860

[Mapantz]

Lol iv literally just asked the question in the strat thread. With strong wave 2 in the near time that looks like verifying for once things look by far the best they have all season. Il be extremely surprised if we dont see a flip in the output in the next 5 days or so. Its really the best news yet as far as the strats concerned. I recognise its frustrating for people all this strat talk an nothing happening but the current split we have is as a result of the strat activity and we just missed out but Europe has been freezing as a result. So I get the feeling we may well be about to see the retrograde number 3 tamara has mentioned. If we can get a decent split from the activity the past 3 wks then this one coming up may well be a final goodbye from the vortex once we get the next week out the way. That leaves a good 4/5 weeks opportunity of cold and snowy weather to make its presence shown.

It's gone from straw clutching to downright desperation! LOL

[Nick Phillips]

Heavy snow showers in Birmingham - is this it for the Winter?  Hope not

[MP-R]

mid-January to early March is the best window for snow for me normally. Quite often there have been potent northerlies at the turn of Feb/Mar only to be replaced by a boring useless easterly which is albeit more common in March, therefore less snowy. It's also worth mentioning though that there have also been decent wintry spells in December with snow also. So really the point is that after mid-March it's really clutching at straws looking for a meaningful cold spell - unless something spectacular happens e.g. last year, they just do not happen!

[JOPRO]

Can we Start the winter 2014-15 Thread now? as this one is proving to be an utter waste of time! Still I did have 10mins of wet snow this morning. Was thinking about it earlier we are stuck in the total opposite of the to the 1962-3 Winter,3-4 Months of westerly/S westerly dross with short (Very Short!!!) interludes of cold northerly or easterly flow.

[cheeky_monkey]

As I have said though, Jan is average zonal month, westerlies which does not produce snow for low levels in the south, March is less Atlantic dominated, more blocking, colder seas, way more northerlies/easterlies so surely that makes March snowier (south)

 

Suppose I shouldn't be basing it on low levels south where I am, oop norf will be different I'm sure, Jan zonal westerlies more likely to give snow than march easterlies (dry)

Apart from March 2013..how many snowy marches have there been in the last 25 years??..last one i can remember was March 1995..there have been some very mild March months in recent years.

[hillbilly]

Apart from March 2013..how many snowy marches have there been in the last 25 years??..last one i can remember was March 1995..there have been some very mild March months in recent years.

1986

1987

1995

1996

2001

2013

That's interesting,have I missed 2002 because if I had then so would 2014!

Am sure 2002 was quite nice and mild?