Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[summer blizzard]

Well were now about halfway through winter and I've had no lying snow.

The outlook to the 17th is cyclonic with cold air not sufficiently west to be better than cool.

The stratosphere is warming but not significantly to provide anything more than a temporary displacement and tends to lag anyway.

....

I can't see a below average outcome for January now and frankly I'm not confident that February will be that special.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Crewe-

C;mon old bean Tell us where the LRG went horribly wrong!!!

When I saw CC's postback in November about this 'being the one' I had visions of unrelenting zonality,funnily enough......  

[cheese]

Crewe-

C;mon old bean Tell us where the LRG went horribly wrong!!!

When I saw CC's postback in November about this 'being the one' I had visions of unrelenting zonality,funnily enough......  

There's no need to be an @rse about it. At least CC was brave enough to stick his neck out and make a forecast. Good on him I say.

Edited January 11, 2014 by cheese

[Winter wonder]

can anyone tell me exactly when the current solar cycle is meant to end, as the sun is meant to go extremely quiet after that, sorry its a bit off topic

 

 

 

next solar min about 2019-20 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/solarcycle/

[Winter wonder]

sorry I made an error with the link just type in solar cycle 24 for more info.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

There's no need to be an @rse about it. At least CC was brave enough to stick his neck out and make a forecast. Good on him I say.

its banter,lighten up ...

[cheese]

Does not compute..

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Anyway,seeing as we have had absolutely no winter weather round here perhaps we can rename this thread 2013/4 the winter that never was....

[Sussex Jules]

Anyway,seeing as we have had absolutely no winter weather round here perhaps we can rename this thread 2013/4 the winter that never was....

Can you also tell me what the lottery numbers are for tonight whilst you have your crystal ball out?!

[meathead]

This winter is doing my nut in. So much hype then nothing!!!! then more hype then nothing!!! The charts are an absolute joke as well, total waste of time. America is blatantly stealing all our cold.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still time folks. If we still havent seen any cold at the end of Feb, then I will be complaining! 

[Don]

Well, the 3rd frost of Winter 2013/14 here tonight and the 2nd in just two days.  Keep the faith, this Winter is on the up!!

 

Edited January 11, 2014 by Don

[hollowbaron]

I think the only ones who got this winter correct was Accuweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Another crap run - gutted - fkn gutted.

[Don]

I think the only ones who got this winter correct was Accuweather

 

Roger J Smith's forecast has been pretty good too so far.  However, the only part that has gone wrong for him is his predicted January cold spell!!  However, there has been some sort of attempt at it so he's not been way off.  So overall, very frustrating.......

[forecaster]

Roger J Smith's forecast has been pretty good too so far.  However, the only part that has gone wrong for him is his predicted January cold spell!!  However, there has been some sort of attempt at it so he's not been way off.  So overall, very frustrating.......

 

Seems to have done well in picking the general character of December, especially given he must have known it would not have been a popular forecast!

I thought it was risky for him to mention that Christmas Day specifically had a good signal for being mild. That is very high precision forecast which turned out to be inaccurate. It wasn't really mild on the day or the days either side.

[Costa Del Fal]

It was fascinating to see how many of you got excited earlier this week as the charts quickly changed fortune to show a cold spell and so many treated it as gospel. Was this sudden change not enough to infer that a sudden change to downgrading could happen (Which it did of course)? Some really need to stop taking every run at face value and take trends not each run as the be all and end all. Then the amount of frustration would be far less. Sure, this Winter isnt living up to much so far but to be honest kits not far off a more normal winter imo, just that the last few have severely distorted peoples views sadly and are expecting it every year. Its not going to happen. On the plus side, it seems the colder the winter the worse the summer seemed to be so maybe if this winter isnt cold and snowy, who knows but maybe the overriding pattern may be in place to deliver a decent summer.

[hillbilly]

It was fascinating to see how many of you got excited earlier this week as the charts quickly changed fortune to show a cold spell and so many treated it as gospel. Was this sudden change not enough to infer that a sudden change to downgrading could happen (Which it did of course)? Some really need to stop taking every run at face value and take trends not each run as the be all and end all. Then the amount of frustration would be far less. Sure, this Winter isnt living up to much so far but to be honest kits not far off a more normal winter imo, just that the last few have severely distorted peoples views sadly and are expecting it every year. Its not going to happen. On the plus side, it seems the colder the winter the worse the summer seemed to be so maybe if this winter isnt cold and snowy, who knows but maybe the overriding pattern may be in place to deliver a decent summer.

Sorry,you are not quite right there,i know what you mean but there is no correlation with cold winters and poor summers and some may argue the opposite besides we already had 2 poor summers of 2007 and 2008 before these last few cold winters arrived!

[summer blizzard]

I think the only ones who got this winter correct was Accuweather

Not to toot my own horn but I went milder than average for Dec and Jan (less mild in Dec though than it actually was). I'm much less confident about my cold Feb though.

[MPG]

7 weeks of winter left. Time for a cold spell but this winter will not be remembered for cold only the wind, rain, flooding.

Edited January 12, 2014 by MPG

[Snowstorm1]

Winter Thread? Thought it was still autumn the way the weather is ... People say time for change but in reality the sun is starting to get stronger now and by February and march hit it be more of a struggle for any snow that might fall to lay.

[sundog]

Probably end up getting some half hearted cold spell in feb and that will be that.  One slight air frost this winter here (-0.4c) and yet another batch of rain approaching my location as i type, temp 8c,the story of this winter so far.

[March Blizzard]

Winter Thread? Thought it was still autumn the way the weather is ... People say time for change but in reality the sun is starting to get stronger now and by February and march hit it be more of a struggle for any snow that might fall to lay.

That old chestnut again!

[Summer Sun]

Winter Thread? Thought it was still autumn the way the weather is ... People say time for change but in reality the sun is starting to get stronger now and by February and march hit it be more of a struggle for any snow that might fall to lay.

 

Remember March 2013? I know we didn't get much lying snow in the NE at low levels but some areas got a right old dumping of snow, given the right conditions March can be just as bad as winter the only difference is the longer days and stronger sun

[Froze were the Days]

I think WSI weather an American forecasting company said that Europe would be mild throughout the winter, in fact quite a few LRF's went for mild rather than cold (companies don't come to mind at the moment).