Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

At least 1 GEFS member decent, will try to find more.

 

 

 

A good few other very decent members, nothing quite as good as that, they will look a lot better than the 6z suite in graph form, particularly for the North East.

 

Even some of the ones that don't bring potent cold in certainly look like they might do down the line.

Edited January 6, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[hillbilly]

Indeed and February 1986 was another late Winter bitter month - easterly winds throughout that month. As you may know February 1986's CET was colder than December 2010.

Just to remind you that this extended winter period was preceded by November 1985 which still remains the coldest November for 95 years.Wintery spells occurred pre xmas,over the new year period and the end of march into april,quite a wintery 5 month period compared to its wintery cet!

[Chris K]

Was reading up on the situation across the pond just now and something caught my eye...(highlighted in bold at the bottom)

 

By Tuesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting 48 US states will have wind chills of below zero - an area of 1.5 million square miles.

Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard has upgraded the city's travel emergency level to "red", making it illegal for anyone to drive except for emergencies or to seek shelter.

The polar vortex will hit temperatures in 48 US states by Tuesday

The last time the city issued such a warning was in 1978. - It's a (currently running late) sign!!!    

http://news.sky.com/story/1190958/polar-vortex-freeze-to-hit-48-states

Edited January 6, 2014 by Chris K

[The PIT]

Well autumn continues here no sign of winter at all or was it in November??? Or have me moved into early spring and forgotten Winter. Will look for signs of spring this weekend while walking.

[Isolated Frost]

Early prediction-

mixed December, some anticyclonic colder days, mostly W/NW/SW dominated, maybe one colder spell from the N

January increasingly cold, possibly a SW start, changing SE/E with a potential later cold blast

February very cold, dominated by E/SE winds, increasingly milder later on after a very cold first half

I feel as though December didn't go to plan as much as I'd like- mainly due to the lack of any actual cold spell. I'm still optimistic about Jan and Feb; on a limb with the ECMWF atm; but you got to hope that we see that Strat finally see that breakthrough.

[feb1991blizzard]

I feel as though December didn't go to plan as much as I'd like- mainly due to the lack of any actual cold spell. I'm still optimistic about Jan and Feb; on a limb with the ECMWF atm; but you got to hope that we see that Strat finally see that breakthrough.

 

Always looked like Feb was the going to be the month with the potential to be cold this year, still wouldn't rule out an Easterly in the last week of Jan but we need the Strat forecasts to become more favourable soon if that is to be the case, the good thing is if we do get an Easterly, at least its got the potential to be a brutal one, we are at peak time of year for one to deliver.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just looking at the stats for the winter CET so far (Dec 1st to Jan 6th) and we're currently the 12th mildest since 1772 for that period, averaging 6.5C.

 

 

 

Here's the top 13 years

 

1.... 1975.... 8.0C

2.... 1935.... 8.0C

3.... 1853.... 7.6C

4.... 1989.... 7.3C

5.... 1869.... 7.1C

6.... 1834.... 6.8C

7.... 1844.... 6.8C

8.... 1899.... 6.8C

9.... 1925.... 6.7C

10.... 2007.... 6.7C

11.... 1829.... 6.7C

12.... 1913.... 6.6C

13.... 2014.... 6.5C

 

 

If we maintain the 6.5C average to the 10th of this month, we'll reach the top 10 mildest since 1772.

Edited January 7, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[SomeLikeItHot]

Indeed and charts like this make you realise how far away we are from a potent cold spell right now:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/cfsr/2013/Rcfsr_1_2013032000.png

 

Proper northern blocking with those yellows over Greenland.

 

But we don't need 1 in 100 year event to get a potent cold spell especially at this time of year.

[meathead]

Why does everyone keep comparing this year with previous years? Whats the point? 

[AWD]

Why does everyone keep comparing this year with previous years? Whats the point?

It's called discussion.Keeps the thread ticking over.

[meathead]

Suppose, not like there is anything exciting to talk about eh

[BornFromTheVoid]

The combined November and December 2013 AO was the 2nd most positive on record, behind just 2011.

 

[The PIT]

Just looking at the stats for the winter CET so far (Dec 1st to Jan 6th) and we're currently the 12th mildest since 1772 for that period, averaging 6.5C.

 

 

 

Here's the top 13 years

 

1.... 1975.... 8.0C

2.... 1935.... 8.0C

3.... 1853.... 7.6C

4.... 1989.... 7.3C

5.... 1869.... 7.1C

6.... 1834.... 6.8C

7.... 1844.... 6.8C

8.... 1899.... 6.8C

9.... 1925.... 6.7C

10.... 2007.... 6.7C

11.... 1829.... 6.7C

12.... 1913.... 6.6C

13.... 2014.... 6.5C

 

 

If we maintain the 6.5C average to the 10th of this month, we'll reach the top 10 mildest since 1772.

Ssssshhhhh some people thinks it's cold or actually average. Impressive stat in the wrong direction.

[chionomaniac]

The combined November and December 2013 AO was the 2nd most positive on record, behind just 2011.

 

Just with a quick glance there is no surprise to see that a lot of those peaks coincide with wQBO years.....

[DOdo]

Check the GFS Oz

[cheese]

Looks like winter will, after much delay, arrive in Scandinavia. In Scandinavia, I believe mean temps have to be below freezing for 7 days for winter to start, and that has not happened yet in the southern half.

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo has this to say about this mornings ECM run

 

00Z EC Det model was definitely on the colder side of the ensembles, so a somewhat cold outlier. Caution recommended...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Neutral ENSO conditions have shifted slightly more negative in the latest update.

 

 

We remain on -ve values with the strong subsurface warmth of the last few months failing to make it to the surface, and is now weakening.

 

 

The forecasts are still generally in favour of a developing a warm ENSO phase, but the forecasts have been suggesting that for most of the last year, so they're not too reliable.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

I'd expect ENSO to remain on the negative side of neutral for the next month or so at least.

 

 

[asmith07]

It's currently looking a little 'beasty' for next weekend.  

 

[picog]

It's currently looking a little 'beasty' for next weekend.  

 

That's the weekend after next.

[Summer Sun]

In sharp contrast to the weather in North America, a heatwave has hit parts of South America with temperatures in Rio de Janeiro around the mid-30 Celsius.

 

Louise Lear has the details and explains why the United Kingdom wont be enduring the record breaking freezing conditions experienced in North America as the air mass crosses the Atlantic on it's way to Europe.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25658951

[Eugene]

Not sure what's so special about mid 30's C in Brazil/Argentina for gods sake in their summer, what next mid 30's C in Eastern Europe is newsworthy in the summer, the severe cold and snow is alot more special in the USA.

 

Also the cold airmass forecasted for next week is from the NE not crossing the atlantic from the USA at all, its pretty obvious that the UK is not going to experience windchill factors into the -60's C, very poor from Louise there.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Eugene

[cyclonic happiness]

In sharp contrast to the weather in North America, a heatwave has hit parts of South America with temperatures in Rio de Janeiro around the mid-30 Celsius.

 

Louise Lear has the details and explains why the United Kingdom wont be enduring the record breaking freezing conditions experienced in North America as the air mass crosses the Atlantic on it's way to Europe.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25658951

She's very unwise to state such a thing in my opinion. everything feels set to kick off here in the UK. Don't ask me why, i've not got the answer.

Not sure what's so special about mid 30's C in Brazil/Argentina for gods sake in their summer, what next mid 30's C in Eastern Europe is newsworthy in the summer, the severe cold and snow is alot more special in the USA.

 

Also the cold airmass forecasted for next week is from the NE not crossing the atlantic from the USA at all, its pretty obvious that the UK is not going to experience windchill factors into the -60's C, very poor from Louise there.

But quite possible for -15'c - -20'c over parts of the UK, as with every winter. The thing the Uk could beat the US on is snowfall, like during the last little ice age. We're in a bad spot when it comes to getting epic snowfalls, we'd be buried.

Edited January 8, 2014 by cyclonic happiness

[asmith07]

That's the weekend after next.

Yes sorry, that's what I meant, 'next' weekend as apposed to, 'this' weekend.

[Richard2901]

I've been comparing this winter to the previous seven up to the end of the first week of January and it really is redefining the term "write-off". The mild minima and lack of frost are astonishing even compared to the similarly snowless winters of 2006/07, 2007/08 and 2011/12. Not only is it the worst in terms of wintery weather but it's also the dullest as well. A really awful winter from all conceivable viewpoints 

 

Data for each winter up to 7th January:

 

 

This doesn't include any frosts or snow prior to 1st December. November had 7 air frosts, 1 day of lying snow and low of -2.0C.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Richard2901