Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[hillbilly]

One thing that should not be forgotten is that in general every winter is different,even if you compare the severe winters of the past 1940,47,63,79,81,86,10, not one could really be compared to eachother,only 1947 and 86 seemed remotely similar in starting late jan and going into march with frequent easterly snowfalls.So why should this winter be any different,we cannot compare it to anything ,we could continue mild or we could get a severe spell,most likely though some brief wintery periods!

[Methuselah]

Unfortunately lower usage of heating only means energy companies will raise prices even more to compensate for lack of profits. True, they'll raise prices regardless because they're greedy lying barstewards (British Gas said last May they'd use extra profits made from the preceding cold weather to stall future hikes, only to implement a 9.2% hike in November!). You can't win either way because the energy market in this country is so monopolised.

 

With this in mind, and the fact that even when it's mild it's still difficult to go without heating, experiencing cold weather and all that it entails is well worth it for me.

True enough. But it also means that the Energy Cartel will lose even more, when we don't put our heating on!

[Weather-history]

Wasn't it cold at the end of November and during the first half of December?

It was but really the proper wintry stuff unquestionably came in the second half of that winter and arguably it was an extended winter because that March was effectively a winter month. 2011-12, hardly anything wintry until late January for the south.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The past two decades have created a misleading impression of UK winters as we have had many anomalously cold Decembers and mild Januarys/Februarys, creating the impression that Decembers tend to be snowy. 

 

Historically, I think it's always been quite rare for northern, eastern and upland parts of Britain to see no snow at all before Christmas, though relatively common in some of the more snowless regions.  It has, however, been normal to be restricted to short-lived wintry blasts before Christmas with any noteworthy cold snowy spells restricted to January, February and maybe early March.

 

I think the lack of cold temperatures and snowfall during the 2013/14 season so far has been unusual- even the notoriously mild 1988/89 season had a widespread snowfall on the 20th November and a localised snowfall in eastern Scotland on the 2nd December, although the 2006/07 season got off to a similarly snowless start.

[UV-RAY]

Absolutely agree CH...Snow can be great but, once in a while, spending a winter in shirtsleeves and not giving half one's income to EON, or whomever, is also something to savour... 

But we spend 9 months of the year in short sleeves to start with, so it's hardly a novelty its it. Now 9 months of cold and only 3 of warmth would be.

[North-Easterly Blast]

You have got a short memory, last winter is an example!The proper wintry weather started after the first week of January and continued on and off into April

I acknowledge what you say, but I have to say that the first half of Dec 2012 was actually quite chilly with frequent frosts and a few cold days just before mid-month, so you cannot say that Winter 2012-13 was devoid of anything remotely wintry in its first half.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The past two decades have created a misleading impression of UK winters as we have had many anomalously cold Decembers and mild Januarys/Februarys, creating the impression that Decembers tend to be snowy. 

 

Historically, I think it's always been quite rare for northern, eastern and upland parts of Britain to see no snow at all before Christmas, though relatively common in some of the more snowless regions.  It has, however, been normal to be restricted to short-lived wintry blasts before Christmas with any noteworthy cold snowy spells restricted to January, February and maybe early March.

 

I think the lack of cold temperatures and snowfall during the 2013/14 season so far has been unusual- even the notoriously mild 1988/89 season had a widespread snowfall on the 20th November and a localised snowfall in eastern Scotland on the 2nd December, although the 2006/07 season got off to a similarly snowless start.

Winter 2006-07 was exceptionally mild though saw a couple of colder intervals from around the 21st-25th Jan and from the 5th-9th Feb.  There was also a fairly cold, frosty, anticyclonic spell in the week before Christmas.

[Gaz1985]

The past two decades have created a misleading impression of UK winters as we have had many anomalously cold Decembers and mild Januarys/Februarys, creating the impression that Decembers tend to be snowy. 

 

Historically, I think it's always been quite rare for northern, eastern and upland parts of Britain to see no snow at all before Christmas, though relatively common in some of the more snowless regions.  It has, however, been normal to be restricted to short-lived wintry blasts before Christmas with any noteworthy cold snowy spells restricted to January, February and maybe early March.

 

I think the lack of cold temperatures and snowfall during the 2013/14 season so far has been unusual- even the notoriously mild 1988/89 season had a widespread snowfall on the 20th November and a localised snowfall in eastern Scotland on the 2nd December, although the 2006/07 season got off to a similarly snowless start.

 

Interesting thing is I remember quite a few cold snowy Decembers (1992-1995-1996-2000-2001-2003-2008-2009-2010) 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Methuselah]

But we spend 9 months of the year in short sleeves to start with, so it's hardly a novelty its it. Now 9 months of cold and only 3 of warmth would be.

As we can't do anything about it, perhaps we should just find ways of enjoying what we get?

[Summer of 95]

Well, it almost looks set that the first half of Winter 2013-14, (up to mid January) will be devoid of anything remotely wintry or even remotely cold.

 

So where does this stand us for the rest of the winter?

 

I am now thinking that, in the last 20 years, there have been at least two or possibly three examples of "pear shaped" winters, that have brought a decent cold spell in the early part of winter, that have deteriorated into nothing.  Most recently this was in 2010-11, which after the exceptional December cold spell ended just after Xmas 2010, it never returned during the rest of the winter, and the rest of the winter was not special, and the only real cold in the rest of that winter was from high pressure spells in the second half of Jan 2011.

 

The second "pear shaped" winter example was 1996-97.  That winter brought a good cold spell in the early part, late December and the early part of Jan (though obviously nothing like Dec 2010), but after Jan 10th it broke and never returned, and the rest of that winter saw next to nothing.  2001-02 also was a type of pear shaped winter, there was some cold weather in late Dec / early Jan, though much shorter than in 96/97, and the rest of the winter after the first week of jan was a horror show, very mild and devoid of anything remotely wintry.

 

 

Further back, in 1981-82, this winter also saw severe cold in the first half, and did indeed have a second half that was largely mild..  Winter 1976-77 also saw a fair amount of cold weather in the first half, and even up to late Jan, but then Feb 1977 wasn't special..

 

So whilst in the last 20 years two or possibly three "pear shaped" winters have occurred, early cold deteriorating into nothing, the "reverse" of this has never occurred, certainly on no occasion since 1988 that's for sure.  I can not think of the last time that we had a winter devoid of anything cold in the first half or early part, delivering some good cold spells later in the winter.  Can anyone pinpoint the last example of the reverse, or back to front version of a pear shaped winter?  Before anyone mentions 1985-86, that's not entirely true, as there was some cold weather in late Dec 1985 which continued into the early part of Jan 1986, which was still in the first half of winter.

 

You can definitely add 2001/2 to that list round here, it wasn't at all unlike 1996/7. A cold, frosty December with some snow at the end (less than Dec 1996 but we had snow cover from Dec 30 to Jan 5, that was the longest such spell between 1996/7 and 2010!) but it went all wrong from about the 10th of January. Absolutely vile late Jan and Feb, although there was one attempt at a northerly about the 22nd Feb that only gave sleet and wet snow.

 

2010-11 we have to say winter was Nov-Dec-Jan that year. There's no other way to describe a season that produced ice days in November, an average temperature below freezing in December, and the last snowfall on January 7th. Much less pear-shaped when seen that way.

[Weather-history]

I acknowledge what you say, but I have to say that the first half of Dec 2012 was actually quite chilly with frequent frosts and a few cold days just before mid-month, so you cannot say that Winter 2012-13 was devoid of anything remotely wintry in its first half.

How do you define "devoid of anything remotely wintry?"Does a single air frost or a day of falling sleet/snow nullify your point?We had a frosty Boxing Day morning, I saw sleet Christmas Eve. So it wasn't devoid of anything remotely wintry here.What do you mean? Edited January 5, 2014 by Weather-history

[NorthernRab]

Nice hard frost here last night which lasted throughout the day, down to just above -4'C. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

How do you define "devoid of anything remotely wintry?"Does a single air frost or a day of falling sleet/snow nullify your point?We had a frosty Boxing Day morning, I saw sleet Christmas Eve. So it wasn't devoid of anything remotely wintry here.What do you mean?

I mean to say that so far during winter 2013-14, I admit that a few parts of the country may have seen isolated frosty mornings, and falling sleet / snow, but I stress that these weather types have been on very isolated days and certainly few and far between for most parts of the country so far this winter, and any sleet / snowfalls have been nothing of any significance.

Edited January 5, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast

[CongletonHeat]

But we spend 9 months of the year in short sleeves to start with, so it's hardly a novelty its it. Now 9 months of cold and only 3 of warmth would be.

You missed out crap from the end of your post.

[March Blizzard]

Interesting thing is I remember quite a few cold snowy Decembers (1992-1995-1996-2000-2001-2003-2008-2009-2010)

That's because December, for whatever reason, has bucked the warming trend seen in the other months over the last few decades. I think it's the only month to see a drop in its CET value against previous averages.

[cheese]

But we spend 9 months of the year in short sleeves to start with, so it's hardly a novelty its it. Now 9 months of cold and only 3 of warmth would be.

Precisely. I spend the majority of the year wearing T-shirts, and never have any reason to wear gloves, hats and even a winter coat is unnecessary most of the time. Wearing my winter coat more often would be a novelty to enjoy - I spend the winter half of the year in hoodies.

Edited January 5, 2014 by cheese

[Froze were the Days]

So far it has been a dire winter for coldies absolutely nothing to get excited about even on the models. A few frosts here and only 1 air frost, typing as the rain pelts down against my skylight windows. Coldest day here so far this winter has been 6.5c but saying that still time for a change as we are not half way through.

[Gaz1985]

 

Middle of the afternoon there - Imagine if it was as cold as that here this Winter? I'm sure that windchill would blow the cobwebs away. 

 

Devils Lake, North Dakota (Airport)

Updated: 14 min 31 sec ago

-29 Â°C

Overcast

Windchill: -46 Â°C Wind: 37 km/h / 10.3 m/s from the WNW

Wind Gust: 50 km/h / 13.9 m/s Pressure: 1028 hPa (Falling)

 

Devils Lake webcam http://www.gondtc.com/webcam-main_street.html

Edited January 5, 2014 by Gaz1985

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So far it has been a dire winter for coldies absolutely nothing to get excited about even on the models. A few frosts here and only 1 air frost, typing as the rain pelts down against my skylight windows. Coldest day here so far this winter has been 6.5c but saying that still time for a change as we are not half way through.

 

Winter not started yet in my neck of the woods, been november really from 1st nov to now, still hoping GFS will start showing cold around 2 weeks today in FI

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Don't know about anyone else but I'm really missing discussing the snow and cold on the regional threads as this was one of the highlights of a Netweather winter. I really hope the ECM and other models follow through with their cold weather promise in around two weeks time.

[damianslaw]

Well, it almost looks set that the first half of Winter 2013-14, (up to mid January) will be devoid of anything remotely wintry or even remotely cold.

 

So where does this stand us for the rest of the winter?

 

I am now thinking that, in the last 20 years, there have been at least two or possibly three examples of "pear shaped" winters, that have brought a decent cold spell in the early part of winter, that have deteriorated into nothing.  Most recently this was in 2010-11, which after the exceptional December cold spell ended just after Xmas 2010, it never returned during the rest of the winter, and the rest of the winter was not special, and the only real cold in the rest of that winter was from high pressure spells in the second half of Jan 2011.

 

The second "pear shaped" winter example was 1996-97.  That winter brought a good cold spell in the early part, late December and the early part of Jan (though obviously nothing like Dec 2010), but after Jan 10th it broke and never returned, and the rest of that winter saw next to nothing.  2001-02 also was a type of pear shaped winter, there was some cold weather in late Dec / early Jan, though much shorter than in 96/97, and the rest of the winter after the first week of jan was a horror show, very mild and devoid of anything remotely wintry.

 

 

Further back, in 1981-82, this winter also saw severe cold in the first half, and did indeed have a second half that was largely mild..  Winter 1976-77 also saw a fair amount of cold weather in the first half, and even up to late Jan, but then Feb 1977 wasn't special..

 

So whilst in the last 20 years two or possibly three "pear shaped" winters have occurred, early cold deteriorating into nothing, the "reverse" of this has never occurred, certainly on no occasion since 1988 that's for sure.  I can not think of the last time that we had a winter devoid of anything cold in the first half or early part, delivering some good cold spells later in the winter.  Can anyone pinpoint the last example of the reverse, or back to front version of a pear shaped winter?  Before anyone mentions 1985-86, that's not entirely true, as there was some cold weather in late Dec 1985 which continued into the early part of Jan 1986, which was still in the first half of winter.

 

 

Depends on what you class as cold wintry weather - if you discount one brief northerly outburst on Christmas day 2004 which only really affected NW parts, then the last 'reverse' winter was 2004/2005, no sustained cold weather until the latter part of February which lasted through until March.

 

WInter 82/83 another one which saw the coldest wintriest conditions reserved for February after an average December with only a little bit of cold snowy weather and a very mild January. Winter 94/95 was very similar in style to 04/05 with one cold northerly just after Christmas but we had to wait until late Feb for any proper cold snowy weather.

[Gaz1985]

Depends on what you class as cold wintry weather - if you discount one brief northerly outburst on Christmas day 2004 which only really affected NW parts, then the last 'reverse' winter was 2004/2005, no sustained cold weather until the latter part of February which lasted through until March.

 

WInter 82/83 another one which saw the coldest wintriest conditions reserved for February after an average December with only a little bit of cold snowy weather and a very mild January. Winter 94/95 was very similar in style to 04/05 with one cold northerly just after Christmas but we had to wait until late Feb for any proper cold snowy weather.

 

Indeed and February 1986 was another late Winter bitter month - easterly winds throughout that month. As you may know February 1986's CET was colder than December 2010.

[Weather-history]

What about 1986-87? A largely mild December followed that spell during January 1987?

1953-54, 1954-55, 1955-56 all saw the coldest spells after the New Year. Some places didn't see a frost during the end of 1953

[Weather-history]

Wetterzentrale have charts from 2013 and that northerly blocking during March 2013 was incredible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fscfsreaeur.html

[reef]

Wetterzentrale have charts from 2013 and that northerly blocking during March 2013 was incredible.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fscfsreaeur.html

 

Indeed and charts like this make you realise how far away we are from a potent cold spell right now:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/cfsr/2013/Rcfsr_1_2013032000.png

 

Proper northern blocking with those yellows over Greenland.