Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

So it'll be mild because the EC32 says so? I'd rather take the shorter range models within the 120 hrs timeframe at present, given the uncertainty between op runs! We're seeing big shifts towards a potentially colder outcome within 168 hrs at present, nevermind anything after that.

 

True but we aint getting a cold spell anytime soon (look at the mid strat profile), yes it is a bit melodramatic and I just hope to see the strat forecasts upgrade again in next few days, I just though we would be seeing signs on this model for late jan by now, I think it models nearly up into the mesosphere now so you would think there would be cold clustering somewhere along the line.

A winter of two halves....Brian!

 

Brian who? Gaze, is that his forecast?

[Bristawl Si]

True but we aint getting a cold spell anytime soon (look at the mid strat profile), yes it is a bit melodramatic and I just hope to see the strat forecasts upgrade again in next few days, I just though we would be seeing signs on this model for late jan by now, I think it models nearly up into the mesosphere now so you would think there would be cold clustering somewhere along the line. Brian who? Gaze, is that his forecast?

It's an old saying from footie programmes back in the 70s, with Brian Moore and Cloughie.

[The PIT]

Can someone tell me when Winter s going to start this prolonged autumn is getting rather tiresome

[Weather-history]

So it'll be mild because the EC32 says so? I'd rather take the shorter range models within the 120 hrs timeframe at present, given the uncertainty between op runs! We're seeing big shifts towards a potentially colder outcome within 168 hrs at present, nevermind anything after that.

But where is the severe wintry January that you seem confident in happening? I don't see a lot of evidence of this happening at the moment.I just hope you haven't been sucked in by the useless CFS long range synoptic forecasts, Crewe because you have one on your avatar.

[dec10snow]

May this mild, albeit wet weather continue. I'm quite happy with 11c in January

Come over here to the south west, a lot of people aren't wanting anymore rain at all, had a washout the last couple of weeks!

[Luke McDonnell]

What puzzles me is that in some winters you can get cold conditions in both Europe and North America (e.g. December 2010) which was under negative NAO conditions but at present we have cold conditions over North America and zonal conditions over Europe and some have said that our current stormy and wet conditions are a result of the temperature contrasts over North America sending the jet stream in our direction - wouldn't you think if that was the case, you would expect stormy and wet rather than cold or snow conditions in Europe in December 2010 too? So why in some winters does North America get cold and Europe mild, others both cold and others again Europe cold and North America mild (you only have to look at February 1991 for that when Washington DC was pushing 20C? And also why is North America getting anomalously cold conditions with a neutral to positive NAO and on the back of what has been a very cold stratosphere in relation to average? I recall when we had such a cold stratosphere in December 2011 North America was not particularly cold perhaps mild in some parts.  Does Stratospheric warming have more of an effect in Europe or is it more important in determining future weather in oceanic climates as opposed to continental ones?

 

Luke 

[cheeky_monkey]

What puzzles me is that in some winters you can get cold conditions in both Europe and North America (e.g. December 2010) which was under negative NAO conditions but at present we have cold conditions over North America and zonal conditions over Europe and some have said that our current stormy and wet conditions are a result of the temperature contrasts over North America sending the jet stream in our direction - wouldn't you think if that was the case, you would expect stormy and wet rather than cold or snow conditions in Europe in December 2010 too? So why in some winters does North America get cold and Europe mild, others both cold and others again Europe cold and North America mild (you only have to look at February 1991 for that when Washington DC was pushing 20C? And also why is North America getting anomalously cold conditions with a neutral to positive NAO and on the back of what has been a very cold stratosphere in relation to average? I recall when we had such a cold stratosphere in December 2011 North America was not particularly cold perhaps mild in some parts.  Does Stratospheric warming have more of an effect in Europe or is it more important in determining future weather in oceanic climates as opposed to continental ones? Luke

actually eastern USA and Canada had a very mild December 2010...not so Western US and Canada where it was cold...right now western half of North America is mild and the east is cold.

[SnowObsessor90]

Like a someone said earlier in the thread sometimes I wonder whether it's going to happen at all  but whilst the window of opportunity  for wintry weather  remains open  (which as we saw last year can well last up until late March) then of course it's foolish to write anything off indefinitely, if we do get something then hope it isn't like the February before last when I had to settle for freezing rain whilst others further east got snow.

[hillbilly]

Amazing how these last few years seem to go from one extreme to another,i do not think it has helped all those who were bigging up this winter made us all feel as though something big was about to happen.It may just be that we will go from the most air frosts in 30 years[2013] to the least!!!.I hope that is not the case!

[Derp Patrol]

This is what normal winters in the UK are like. Personally I will take this every day of the week over freezing cold weather, I have bills to pay and work to do.. I quite like 12C in January compared to 2C for sure! Much easier to get out of bed when it isn't freezing!

[Summer Sun]

ECM a little more interesting for coldies this evening

 

[maw368]

HI Maw,Thanks for the great post, clearly a lot of time and effort put into it..I completely agree with you not to judge a book by its cover, except if we were talking about `he whom shall not be named`i did wonder about piers methology though as you say , he is touting a big storm for the BI come new years day, give or take a couple of days either side.Piers Corbynâ€@Piers_Corbyn1hRtRt! BEWARE MAJOR NEW YEARS DAY STORMS B+I+Eu, USA; as SOLAR ACTION UPS http://bit.ly/1eeJIsw <=WHY THE STORMS? http://twitpic.com/dqdjlr Ty so looking at the models for new years day shows a shallow trough approaching from the west, which at best/or worst depending on your POV will give a wet day and a bit of a breeze for the south east...thats from the gfs 06z , maybe it wont be there on the 12z or it gets a bit of an upgrade..then theres a big storm over usa to yet develop and clash with some very cold air being ejected into the atlantic.. as Noaa have used a new word apparently to describe it `bombogenesis` . so real potential for a big storm to brew and head our way, maybe by the 6th according to gfs...whereas ecm not as progressive.so thats 4 days out of his window of time...albeit there is a lot of solar activity at the moment (cme`s i think) is this something he predicted/forecast 4 weeks ago.

Is it not a prettt decent storm today? Within the 2 day period. Forecasted over 4 weeks ahead. Impressive. I know people dont want to derail thread but the detail of the forecast is to accurate and to frequent to be chance. Give credit where credit is due I say

[feb1991blizzard]

RE - The post by Gaz1985 just made on MOD thread, the comparisons with 1987 are very striking, very unlikely to come off, it doesn't fit in with the background signals - YET, may well do come end Jan though!!

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

But where is the severe wintry January that you seem confident in happening? I don't see a lot of evidence of this happening at the moment.I just hope you haven't been sucked in by the useless CFS long range synoptic forecasts, Crewe because you have one on your avatar.

 

Nothing to do with the CFS Kev. That avatar is an actual anomaly reanalysis chart from March 2013....

 

The building blocks are there for a severe January, they're there and they have been there for some time IMO. If it doesn't happen then fair enough, shoot me down. However the NWP is beginning to latch on now IMO. My timings were slightly too progressive but I'm still confident we'll see something pretty severe develop this month.

 

It would have been easy to look at this winter +QBO and strong vortex and think zonal all the way. In fact, a safe bet would have been to follow this line of thinking. However, IMO, this line of thinking won't be correct when all said and done. Composite forecasting, along with historic analogues suggested a potentially severe January and February.

Edited January 4, 2014 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Nothing to do with the CFS Kev. That avatar is an actual anomaly reanalysis chart from March 2013....

 

The building blocks are there for a severe January, they're there and they have been there for some time IMO. If it doesn't happen then fair enough, shoot me down. However the NWP is beginning to latch on now IMO. My timings were slightly too progressive but I'm still confident we'll see something pretty severe develop this month.

 

Towards the end of the month and into Feb, a very strong signal, nothing stonking surely before the 20th though??

[Cheshire Freeze]

Towards the end of the month and into Feb, a very strong signal, nothing stonking surely before the 20th though??

 

I think we'll be staring down the barrel by the 15th.....just in time for potentially peak cold pooling.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think we'll be staring down the barrel by the 15th.....just in time for potentially peak cold pooling.

 

 

Yes I think sometimes there is too much panic over lack of cold pooling, people talk as if lack of cold pooling to our east on 10th Jan means good synoptics cannot deliver for rest of winter, good too see the -18c isotherm not a million miles away on the ECM though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes I think sometimes there is too much panic over lack of cold pooling, people talk as if lack of cold pooling to our east on 10th Jan means good synoptics cannot deliver for rest of winter, good too see the -18c isotherm not a million miles away on the ECM though.

 

I was actually thinking earlier how an upper air value such as that may actually reach our shores this month...

[feb1991blizzard]

I was actually thinking earlier how an upper air value such as that may actually reach our shores this month...

 

 its possible - slightly different take from me though, I will go about 5 to 6 days into feb.

Edited January 4, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[AderynCoch]

This is what normal winters in the UK are like.

No it isn't. I think I've had one frost in November and none whatsoever since. None. Add to that the sheer number of windstorms and the flooding caused by the unusually high amount of rain.

 

It really isn't normal at all.

[matty007]

I'm not looking to antagonize any coldies on here but I really don't understand what all this fuss is about. 11c in January is a very mild temperature indeed and it's staying that way into the night as well, I could understand you moaning if it was 18+ but 11c is hardly warm. It's warm enough that you can save on the energy bills and don't dread getting out of bed in the morning but cold enough that you know it's not Summer any more. 

 

If cold does come then it will come, if it doesn't then it doesn't. At the moment I'm most inclined to say it won't, but you can't say never. Me personally I think this will be a repeat of the Winter of 2007. Wet and stormy but mild.  

 

I'm sure you will all love some Snow and minus temperatures but I assure you you will get tired much more quickly of that than what we have now.  

 

I'm just enjoying not giving the gas company a big chunk of my income and having to put gloves, scarves and double socks on when I walk outside only to still feel freezing cold. Most winters I'm urging to end but this one I'm not, it's more like Autumn really. 

 

This is just a very comfortable Winter where we can all save some much needed money rather than handing it to the gas company and we don't all dread having to get out of our warm beds in the morning. I'm sure a lot of people will agree with me. 

 

Sure the rain is a pain but I'd take that over minus temperatures, a hefty gas bill and snow any day. I do feel for the people in the west however, it's been relentless. 

Edited January 4, 2014 by matty007

[matty007]

No it isn't. I think I've had one frost in November and none whatsoever since. None. Add to that the sheer number of windstorms and the flooding caused by the unusually high amount of rain.

 

It really isn't normal at all.

 

True, this isn't really what you'd call normal at all. I've only had two frosts so far. 

 

Somebody tried to correct me when I said that 11c in January isn't mild, it is, VERY mild. We're usually around the 2c mark and -2 ish at night. Lately it's been 9c at 2AM here. I've known days in September  at 3PM colder than that. 

 

It is what you'd call a very mild winter, not that I'm complaining. 

Edited January 4, 2014 by matty007

[roughyed]

Is it not a prettt decent storm today? Within the 2 day period. Forecasted over 4 weeks ahead. Impressive. I know people dont want to derail thread but the detail of the forecast is to accurate and to frequent to be chance. Give credit where credit is due I say

But it wasn't the forecast from 4 weeks ago was it?  4 weeks ago he said Cornwall would be 'breezy', no mention of floods, storm force winds, etc.  He changed his forecast for the beginning of January only a few days ago.

[Essan]

Is it not a prettt decent storm today? Within the 2 day period. Forecasted over 4 weeks ahead. Impressive. I know people dont want to derail thread but the detail of the forecast is to accurate and to frequent to be chance. Give credit where credit is due I say

This shows just how arbitary Piers is with his verification. Predict a storm on a certain date and then pick which storm within a few days either side of that date you want to be the one you predicted. Edit: he did the same with the 28th Oct storm, which I assessed here (bottom of page)Piers did indeed predict a New Year storm.  Which we had on New Year's day. This is a different storm altogether! As is Sunday's and as were the storms at the end of December.  What Piers did not predict was that there would be storms every 2 or 3 days from mid December through into the first week of January. I wonder why?

Edited January 4, 2014 by Essan

[cheese]

I'm not looking to antagonize any coldies on here but I really don't understand what all this fuss is about. 11c in January is a very mild temperature indeed and it's staying that way into the night as well, I could understand you moaning if it was 18+ but 11c is hardly warm. It's warm enough that you can save on the energy bills and don't dread getting out of bed in the morning but cold enough that you know it's not Summer any more. 

 

If cold does come then it will come, if it doesn't then it doesn't. At the moment I'm most inclined to say it won't, but you can't say never. Me personally I think this will be a repeat of the Winter of 2007. Wet and stormy but mild.  

 

I'm sure you will all love some Snow and minus temperatures but I assure you you will get tired much more quickly of that than what we have now.  

 

I'm just enjoying not giving the gas company a big chunk of my income and having to put gloves, scarves and double socks on when I walk outside only to still feel freezing cold. Most winters I'm urging to end but this one I'm not, it's more like Autumn really. 

 

This is just a very comfortable Winter where we can all save some much needed money rather than handing it to the gas company and we don't all dread having to get out of our warm beds in the morning. I'm sure a lot of people will agree with me. 

 

Sure the rain is a pain but I'd take that over minus temperatures, a hefty gas bill and snow any day. I do feel for the people in the west however, it's been relentless. 

You are trying to succeed where others have failed miserably time and time again. Gas bills and cold mornings - yup, I know what it's like - I'm an independent adult and pay my own way in this world. I never wear scarves or gloves, either, unless it gets very cold - which it rarely does. The coldest it got last winter was -7C and even then, scarves and gloves were completely unnecessary. I don't even remember the last time I wore a pair of gloves - in fact, I'm not entirely sure if I own a pair anymore!

 

Your own motives could be described as pretty selfish - you're relishing this milder weather because it reduces your own gas bills, even though it ruined Christmas for thousands and is continuing to play havoc with everyday life. Of course, that is your prerogative, and I shan't bore you with a lecture as to why that's a bad thing - you probably have better things to be doing (I hope).

 

For what it's worth, I'd rather have 18C right now. This 'in-between' weather is irritating. It's just slate grey skies with frequent rain showers, waterlogged ground and dampness - the pavements have moss growing on them. Pretty crap. If that's what you enjoy, then that's fair enough, but it's pretty horrid to me.

Edited January 4, 2014 by cheese