Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[asmith07]

...and look what we have on the GFS 10 HPA this morning. Deep in Fi I know but surely this would alter the weather pattern we've been enduring over the past few weeks. 

Edited January 1, 2014 by asmith07

[March Blizzard]

...and look what we have on the GFS 10 HPA this morning. Deep in Fi I know but surely this would alter the weather pattern we've been enduring over the past few weeks. 

SSB (Sudden Stratospheric Boiling...)

[meathead]

Anyone else getting seriously micturated off with this winter? beginning to think we won't see anything in the way of cold!! I

[damianslaw]

Anyone else getting seriously micturated off with this winter? beginning to think we won't see anything in the way of cold!! I

 

There is a good 2 and half months of winter left, and for Scotland I would say 3 months as March can pack a very wintry punch in the north.

 

There are strong indications of a much colder outlook for the second half of winter, things can and do change very quickly, often surprisingly so.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Think we will see some cold towards the end of this month. It has been so remarkably mild though. Have not even had to scrape my car yet and we are in January! Madness.

[Bristawl Si]

Who knows?

This wet, mild(ish) weather (imby re mildish) could continue right thru January, but even in past mild winters we've usually seen a week or so of colder, snowier weather. Maybe a 1st week Feb 09 situ?

I think a number of the winters of the last few years have clouded people's expectations re cold and snow to be blunt, esp in the South.

09/10 and 10/11 were pretty exceptional ( for my part of the world anyway). 'We' didnt really 'join in' last winter with cold and snow here in the south west. I think we had one decent snowfall in mid Jan.

Still wouldnt surprise me if last week of Jan/early Feb brings a change but whether it materialises or lasts v long is another matter.

[Gustywind]

Asked this question on another thread but wondered if anyone knowledgeable here could answer!

Has there ever been a Uk winter where all 3 winter months were almost wholly dominated by mild, wet zonality as per Dec 13?

[Weather-history]

Asked this question on another thread but wondered if anyone knowledgeable here could answer!Has there ever been a Uk winter where all 3 winter months were almost wholly dominated by mild, wet zonality as per Dec 13?

The first part of December was anticylonic wasn't it? 1988-89 was very mild zonality but it wasn't wet at least in the south. Winter 1988-89 actually began with a weak Scandi High!

[bobbydog]

calm down everyone. its all ok. the uncertainty in the models is irrelevant.

 

James Madden says so-

 

"

Due to the overall severity and nature of the expected weather developments for the first quarter of 2014 (January – March), it must be noted, that it is now of very high confidence, that many parts of the UK and Ireland will experience a significant and prolonged period of exceptionally cold and very snowy weather, that standard meteorology will and have to date (underestimated).

 

A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more prolonged scale in terms of overall duration. January, in particular, is likely to be an exceptionally cold and snowy month, and February is highly likely to continue with this trend (either January or February could be potentially record-breaking in terms of the snow and cold episodes that are likely to develop).

 

January – The January period is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month. This will bring a very cold and exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half of this forecasting period.

 

 

Forecasting confidence: High to Very High"

 

 

 

 

 

 

oh well, there's always next winter........

[summer blizzard]

Well as we move into January a look at day 6 on the models suggests that cyclonic south westerlies are still the order of the day no matter what the models suggest afterward.

 

It looks like the first four (of nine) ten day winter periods can essentially be written off.

[hillbilly]

I remember that the winter of 1980/1981 had little in the way of snow,especially on the back of 1978 and 1979 then just as spring had started we had the amazing blizzard in the last week of april!!!

[bluearmy]

calm down everyone. its all ok. the uncertainty in the models is irrelevant.James Madden says so-

oh well, there's always next winter........

All the tops of the hills north of the midlands could be considered to be 'many parts' ?? He doesn't say 'most' or 'much of'. 'Many parts ' is a very loose term.He'll find a way to justify his forecast. He always does. Edited January 1, 2014 by bluearmy

[Festivefreeze]

My gut feeling is that late January and early February will the coldest winter weather, but temperatures for the season as a whole will almost certainly return an above average value. I do feel, however, that a cooler summer this year will favour a much colder December next year.

[Lynxus]

My gut feeling is that late January and early February will the coldest winter weather, but temperatures for the season as a whole will almost certainly return an above average value. I do feel, however, that a cooler summer this year will favour a much colder December next year.

 

Jan , Esp Feb tend to be the coldest and snowy for us here.

The UK tends to have a good 1 to 2 month lag on its winter due to the atlantic.

[MPG]

Thought 2012 Nov and Dec was bad enough for rain, but at least it changed into January. As for this it looks endless.

[MP-R]

At least last year the weather was only a week or two behind. There was actually the autumn storms right from late September through to the end of November then colder weather showed itself interspersed with milder during December and early January then winter properly arrived in the second week of January and pretty much lasted until the beginning of April. This time however this autumnal weather just looks endless. A cold March would really be a kick in the teeth if January doesn't return anything seasonal.

[snowtimenow]

So Christmas is now well and truly over, so from now on till spring if this weather continues its going to drive me mad, its very boring indeed.

[Summer of 95]

Asked this question on another thread but wondered if anyone knowledgeable here could answer!Has there ever been a Uk winter where all 3 winter months were almost wholly dominated by mild, wet zonality as per Dec 13?

1989/90? Certainly I remember that being very wet and mild, although we did get some shortlived snow in mid Dec. Jan and Feb were one atlantic depression after the other.Check out 1862/3 though, thats 18 not 19! That winter seems to have been the all-time stinker, snowless in places as far apart as London and N Ireland and wet with it. Must have been absolute non-stop westerlies.

[hillbilly]

There seems to have been a long period of wet weather and there is more to come it is extremely unlikely it can continue the rest of the winter so at some point it will dry up or the atlantic systems have to change almost certainly in the winter period of jan/ feb so it is not rocket science to say we will get cold frosty or snowy weather in that period.

[Summer Sun]

There seems to have been a long period of wet weather and there is more to come it is extremely unlikely it can continue the rest of the winter so at some point it will dry up or the atlantic systems have to change almost certainly in the winter period of jan/ feb so it is not rocket science to say we will get cold frosty or snowy weather in that period.

 

It looks like a drier spell will develop during next week across the UK

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/?p=2882136

 

[damianslaw]

Mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out - wet spells followed by dry spells and vice versa, cold spells followed by mild spells etc - its all natures way of maintaining an equilibrium state, so whilst one part of the world can be experiencing there wettest period on record, another is quite likely to be experiencing there driest.

 

A good example of a very stormy period followed by a lengthy dry settled spell was winter 89/90- after storms in Jan and Feb, things settled down markedly in March and the rest of the year was very dry and settled away from the NW.

 

November 2009 is also a good example of a very wet period followed by quite a dry spell in winter and well into spring, it was also one of the most mild Novembers on record but just 3 weeks later the country was plunged into a lengthy cold period.

 

And how many times have hosepipe bans been followed by markedly very wet weather indeed, 2011 was a very recent example.

 

Winter 94/95 one of the wettest on record was followed by I think the driest 2 year period on record...

[matty007]

May this mild, albeit wet weather continue. I'm quite happy with 11c in January

Edited January 2, 2014 by matty007

[feb1991blizzard]

EC 32 downgrade - Gutted, ing  gutted.

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC 32 downgrade - Gutted, ing  gutted.

 

So it'll be mild because the EC32 says so? I'd rather take the shorter range models within the 120 hrs timeframe at present, given the uncertainty between op runs! We're seeing big shifts towards a potentially colder outcome within 168 hrs at present, nevermind anything after that.

[Bristawl Si]

A winter of two halves....Brian!