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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

no wonder you moved to here Posted Image

I've been here for a while mate :p

Re: Piers Corbyn's forecast, apparently it is that the first significant snowfall for Scotland, and the north will be Boxing Day! Will be interesting to see how that goes, as there are hints of that there....

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin,Ireland
  • Location: Dublin,Ireland

I've been here for a while mate Posted Image

Re: Piers Corbyn's forecast, apparently it is that the first significant snowfall for Scotland, and the north will be Boxing Day! Will be interesting to see how that goes, as there are hints of that there....

im weather watcher from the mail and u have not been on that for a bit 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin,Ireland
  • Location: Dublin,Ireland

im weather watcher from the mail and u have not been on that for a bit

 

im weather watcher from the mail and u have not been on that for a bit

 

didnt mean that 

I've been here for a while mate Posted Image

Re: Piers Corbyn's forecast, apparently it is that the first significant snowfall for Scotland, and the north will be Boxing Day! Will be interesting to see how that goes, as there are hints of that there....

its snowing in dublin now

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

im weather watcher from the mail and u have not been on that for a bit 

 

He know's that Posted Image

 

Netweather is far better than the dm forums though to be honest.

 

Hopefully we get some snow here later.

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
  • Location: Mansfield Notts

I've not read his 45 day forecast but I do know that he's forecast the first significant snow fall for Scotland and the north for boxing day.

 

I just wanted to correct myself on this, its new years eve for first proper snow fall not boxing day sorry guys my mistake.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

EC32 is dyer im afraid, wasn't expecting it to be quite as bad as that, was always pretty obvious we would be waiting until feb for any chance of sustained blocking but that's a real kick in the nuts.

 

EDIT : Some people say this winters model watching has been frustrating and its very likely now that any widespread disruptive snowfall may take even longer than last winter and of course the possibility we may not get any at all (although I think we will), last winter was more frustrating because we really could have had potent spells of cold right the way through from early December to Late March, this year December looked a write off from a very early stage.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

EC32 is dyer im afraid, wasn't expecting it to be quite as bad as that, was always pretty obvious we would be waiting until feb for any chance of sustained blocking but that's a real kick in the nuts.

 

We'll see. Something has to give. GFS trailing some activity with the strat in the 10-14 day timeframe which could possibly result in quite a dramatic tropospheric response. Jan was always looking cold to me and I won't change that train of thought based on the EC32.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

We'll see. Something has to give. GFS trailing some activity with the strat in the 10-14 day timeframe which could possibly result in quite a dramatic tropospheric response. Jan was always looking cold to me and I won't change that train of thought based on the EC32.

 

Hope your right, and I dont think it will be as bad as Late Dec / Jan 2011/2012 and certainly not a 1989, but I dont think +ve pressure anoms are likely over either scandi and certainly Greenland for at the very least the first half of Jan, those strat forecasts are decent and I hope that wave 2 activity persists on the ECM charts and that GFS warming does likewise but although a good warming (possibly the best of the winter) is showing on the 18z, there is no actual split, its just an elongation at both 10hpa and 30hpa levels.

 

EDIT : ive got a sneaking suspicion for a very cold late Feb / March, maybe record breaking.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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We'll see. Something has to give. GFS trailing some activity with the strat in the 10-14 day timeframe which could possibly result in quite a dramatic tropospheric response. Jan was always looking cold to me and I won't change that train of thought based on the EC32.

No CC,unfortunately it doesn't work like that. It could very well go like a zonal train right out to mid Feb by which time it will be too late for those wanting winter wonderland scenes in their back garden.

Without wanting to sound humbug I watched this thread very closely through November and some of the comments about this year being the 'big one' were quite frankly a bit ridiculous and were absolutely hopecasting at its very worst.

 

Quite a few members were very bullish about a neg NA0 through winter,i can tell you now this winter will not in a million years return a -NAO,i'll bet my garden shed on it.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

No CC,unfortunately it doesn't work like that. It could very well go like a zonal train right out to mid Feb by which time it will be too late for those wanting winter wonderland scenes in their back garden.

Without wanting to sound humbug I watched this thread very closely through November and some of the comments about this year being the 'big one' were quite frankly a bit ridiculous and were absolutely hopecasting at its very worst.

 

Quite a few members were very bullish about a neg NA0 through winter,i can tell you now this winter will not in a million years return a -NAO,i'll bet my garden shed on it.

 

Haha OK, I'll look forward to my garden shed. FWIW I actually purposely worded my winter forecast to suggest a big -AO winter overall with periods where the NAO is negative too (as I didn't forsee the NAO being consistently as negative as the AO). The GFS is consistently showing -AO patterns now into FI so I'm certainly happy with how that is progressing. I still expect January to come in comfortably below average temperature wise. Save this post if you like....we'll see who is right by the end of Jan.

Edited by CreweCold
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Haha OK, I'll look forward to my garden shed. FWIW I actually purposely worded my winter forecast to suggest a big -AO winter overall with periods where the NAO is negative too (as I didn't forsee the NAO being consistently as negative as the AO). I still expect January to come in comfortably below average temperature wise. Save this post if you like....we'll see who is right by the end of Jan.

:D

The AO has been massively positive CC and no sign of any change before the end of December.In fact if the EC 32 is to be believed no sign of a change there until the last third of Jan at the earliest!

Anyway,we'll take a rain check in a few weeks...:)

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Not a great post for coldies on the model output by Fergie as he has more data available to him. Before this Winter started I had a suspicion that we may have a similar Winter to 2011-12 (the cold arriving sometime in February) as this stage most of January is looking mildish and wet.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Posted Image

The AO has been massively positive CC and no sign of any change before the end of December.In fact if the EC 32 is to be believed no sign of a change there until the last third of Jan at the earliest!

Anyway,we'll take a rain check in a few weeks...Posted Image

 

Yes but it was never going to be anything else during December. This month is irrelevant and was always going to be a struggle with a strong, early season vortex taking shape and dominating. True, I thought we may some evidence of attempted pressure rises at times but that is neither here nor there as it was going to be a generally W'ly month.

 

If January and February both came in 2-3C below average, then I think that could be classed as 'the big one' seeing as 1947, 1986 etc etc are seen as big winters which only featured a concentrated couple of weeks of cold (not until nearly Feb in the case of '47).

 

Not one person (afaik) mentioned a severe December at any point.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I actually think we MIGHT get a really potent cold snap at some point but not a persistently negative AO or NAO, 90-91 was a positive AO for large parts of that winter and was a +NAO early Feb 1991.

 

EDIT : and its a toss up between that and 86-87 winter for my favourite ever.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

Why is everyone being so negative? Long range models are about as good as a chocolate tea pot. The short range models can't even predict the weather after 4 days so what makes you think the ec 32 is going to be right?  

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Why is everyone being so negative? Long range models are about as good as a chocolate tea pot. The short range models can't even predict the weather after 4 days so what makes you think the ec 32 is going to be right?  

 

Exactly, the EC32 was being slated not so long ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Hope your right, and I dont think it will be as bad as Late Dec / Jan 2011/2012 and certainly not a 1989, but I dont think +ve pressure anoms are likely over either scandi and certainly Greenland for at the very least the first half of Jan, those strat forecasts are decent and I hope that wave 2 activity persists on the ECM charts and that GFS warming does likewise but although a good warming (possibly the best of the winter) is showing on the 18z, there is no actual split, its just an elongation at both 10hpa and 30hpa levels.EDIT : ive got a sneaking suspicion for a very cold late Feb / March, maybe record breaking.

EC32 and winter 2011-12. Does anyone remember Matt Hugo kept referring to EC32 and signals of higher pressures towards the back end of that January in the Greenland region? Infact, there was no blocking at all there in the end. Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

I think people fall into a trap of making a forecast and then trying to get the output to tie in with what they have thought. I admire anyone who has ago at a LRF, jeeze, it's hard enough to have ago at one ten days out. Used to love reading GPs thoughts and reasoning. We have to accept that the norm for us is not what most would like to see. Therefore, I find it a little odd when out put shows the norm and everyone is disappointed. This is setting yourself up for disappointment on a regular basis. What does the rest of the winter have install? We will need to watch and see.

Someone once said that anyone who states that they can predict the future is a liar, even if they are proved correct on occasions. Nothing wrong in making a forecast and getting wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

EC32 and winter 2011-12. Does anyone remember Matt Hugo kept referring to EC32 and signals of higher pressures towards the back end of that January in the Greenland region? Infact, there was no blocking at all there in the end.

Absolutely spot on. Matt Hugo bases all his forecasts it seems on the EC32 and he is wrong pretty often. I did ask him on Twitter about his use of the EC32........he banned me from contacting him.....read into that what you want!

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Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

Why is everyone being so negative? Long range models are about as good as a chocolate tea pot. The short range models can't even predict the weather after 4 days so what makes you think the ec 32 is going to be right?  

 

exactly, charts charts charts, they are rubbish after 3 days

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Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft

Why all the negativity??

Everyone seems so hooked on the ec32 dayer, 

If you look at things from another angle, the gfs has p2 showing an easterly and very cold uppers, and also the CFS is showing Easterlys and cold uppers!!!

Both of these are being shown arround the same time frame, arround the first week of Jan..

These situations can pot up from no where, lets all chill out and see what happens,    

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