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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

All the signals are there for cold to take over shortly and into the new year. Any mild or warmer weather has dissappeared, quite a turn around from just a week or so ago. Have a feeling this winter will be one to remember!

 

I hope your right, I could do with a good fix of the white cold stuff, Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sun or snow, nothing in between.
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK

This Christmas may not be a happy one for bookies

 

Posted Image

 

It could be a rather expensive one

But it's still a fair few days left for that, knowing our (the coldies) luck, that'll massively downgrade :(

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Posted
  • Location: Woolton, Liverpool
  • Location: Woolton, Liverpool

All the signals are there for cold to take over shortly and into the new year. Any mild or warmer weather has dissappeared, quite a turn around from just a week or so ago. Have a feeling this winter will be one to remember!

Well exactly, the models are much more favourable to coldies than they were a couple of weeks ago. Then it was doom and gloom on the mod thread.

Now we have a southerly moving jet (becoming more and more of  a consensus) and an eastward movement of the PV, colder uppers forecast for Christmas period with the potential of snow-add in the storms and reasonbly happy days!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Looks like a brief cold snap around Xmas for a few days before it turns mild again in the run up to new years.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Looks like a brief cold snap around Xmas for a few days before it turns mild again in the run up to new years.

I'm not so sure it will brief as the models are constantly upgrading. Remember we've gone from a long fetch from the SW, then relentless mild zonality to what is being modelled now, this in the space of just over a week

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

well in honesty I wrote of winter 2013/14 back in October higher solar activity and the re energised azores and euro heights and a much more power full northerly tracking jet add in the extreme polar vortex and less mountain torque events.

 

to put into context our weather has and is going to be rather disturbed more storms hitting us than the amount of hurricaine activity in the alantic so id be inclined to stick with my thoughts on this winter and that's its a typical late 90s early 2000s type.

 

now lets hope 2014 helps us along for next winter with a sleeping sun.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

well in honesty I wrote of winter 2013/14 back in October higher solar activity and the re energised azores and euro heights and a much more power full northerly tracking jet add in the extreme polar vortex and less mountain torque events.

 

to put into context our weather has and is going to be rather disturbed more storms hitting us than the amount of hurricaine activity in the alantic so id be inclined to stick with my thoughts on this winter and that's its a typical late 90s early 2000s type.

 

now lets hope 2014 helps us along for next winter with a sleeping sun.

 

I've decided to write off summer '14, '15 and '16 based on nothing other than nothing. Doesn't mean I'll be right though, even if I am it won't be through forecasting prowess.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

This Christmas may not be a happy one for bookies

 

Posted Image

 

It could be a rather expensive one

 

Where the bloody hell did that come from!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

the stratosphere has been cooling over the years plus we are more close to a la nina type winter than el nino type !!! el nino type winter 09/10 plus a more low activity on the sun infact 0 activity on the sun helps in big ways.

 

and I do think we will have a poor summer 2014 and a better winter 14/15.

 

in other word my thoughts are that this winter will be poor if northern blocking is what you are looking for.

wave events are really having trouble against the relentless power of the vortex even if current model projections are correct and the vortex moves on from its current area it wont be long before it comes back to its original area.

 

its a late 90s early 2000s type winter its not likely to flip to northern blocking and mid 80s mid 60s or even 09/10 winter type setup.

mid latitude blocking is possible but northern blocking is unlikely through out this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Hmm.. Not much in the way of good news from the cfs of late. Certainly, if its cold or settled weather you're searching for that is. Here's the last 12 runs averaged showing forecasted heights

Posted Image

very similar to the current output! May be a case of having to be patient. And i suspect, taking into account the latest ec32, changes may occur in the second half of january as opposed to the start.

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

I see the CFS2 model is predicting an extremely wet January and a wetter than average February and March. The very wet January has been shown for some time now. I'm guessing it will be rain, not snow.

Edited by picog
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Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft

http://m.inhabitat.com/inhabitat/#!/entry/mesmerizing-earth-wind-map-shows-realtime-wind-conditions-around-the,52b08460025312186ca28a12

Probably best to cut and paste the entire link

Sorry for the long link. Not sure if it's common knowledge but I found it fascinating. There's a link for a real time wind map within the article. Will be an interesting watch over the coming weeks.

Edited by Blackjack
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Signals for Jan & Feb from cfs do not appear that conducive for proper cold, if that is your preference.

the latest 4 runs averaged for Jan has troughing to our N & NW, and a ridge to our S, extending into Europe - more or less in accordance with what the latest MetO long range update suggests.

Posted Image

as for February? No significant change. The latest 10 day chunk currently shows this

Posted Image

conversely, the 16 member ensemble forecast (cfsv2) covering 8 Jan to 14, has a ridge to our NW - with the potential for a much cooler flow developing? So all is not lost. I think patience is needed if you're a cold fan!

Posted Image

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

UKMO Euro 4 HRES model showing snow accumulation out to OOZ fri

 

Posted Image

Edited by Boro Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

I see the CFS2 model is predicting an extremely wet January and a wetter than average February and March. The very wet January has been shown for some time now. I'm guessing it will be rain, not snow.

 

It doesn't matter if it repeats itself, that doens't make it more trustfull. CFS2 ain't that reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Before Feb/March this year CFS2 nobody gave a fig about it. I've been monitoring it daily back in October/November and the daily runs just did not go with the height anomolies (monthly) that some people were posting and showing height rises either to the north or north east so that was very mystifying where as the daily runs were modelling largely zonal conditions (mainly November/December) and less so in January with the chance of blocking to the north east.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Anyone read Piers Corbyns 45 day forecast ??

Can't say as I have, Ali; I refuse to pay for twaddle...Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
  • Location: Mansfield Notts

Anyone read Piers Corbyns 45 day forecast ??

 

I've not read his 45 day forecast but I do know that he's forecast the first significant snow fall for Scotland and the north for boxing day.

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