Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Summer Sun]

Oh yes because a weather report up to mid January is going to be correct isn't it? You only post things on this forum that cold fans don't want to hear, It's like you're trying to wind people up in a disguised type of way. 

 

I said it can change quickly, but currently there updates are not pointing to anything wintry away from the normal spots

[Summer Sun]

Latest odds from the bookies for a white Christmas, might be worth a flutter with some of these odds the bookies wouldn't have a good Christmas if it does snow

 

[Mapantz]

Oh yes because a weather report up to mid January is going to be correct isn't it? You only post things on this forum that cold fans don't want to hear, It's like you're trying to wind people up in a disguised type of way. 

 

It works both ways bud, there are folks who don't want to hear the 'cold' word. Chill out! 

[chubbyfan]

Anyone got any updates about what is going on? 

its cloudy and mild.

[hillbilly]

I am not sure if you all believe in this sort of thing, but I was going for a newspaper at 0800hrs the sky was bright red and then from no where hundreds of geese was flying over head, and I mean that literally, hundreds of geese, I have never in my life seen such a large flock,  it was quite eerie as they turned south westwards, maybe I am just hoping this is a really good sign

I saw something similar 6 weeks ago!!

[mcweather]

Well we have now moved from the wrist slashingly poor output ( for coldies ans snowies) of the euro high induced mild to more normal fare for winter especially here in the south west, namely endless low pressures whizzing across on the jet stream.

 

But before we have any more winter is over posts.

It would probably do us good to remember that from a snow lovers point of view.  Some of our greatest snow events have occurred in other wise mainly westerly driven winters. We do  not need a 63 or 47 scenario to have a decent spell of biting cold and extreme snowfall.

 

Take the winter of 77/78 for instance, December and the first three weeks of January were dominated by by a mainly westerly flow and even a southerly at times with nothing much more than the odd toppler yet the last week of January and first two weeks of feb produced the great highland Blizzard then a spell of severe cold with widespread snowfalls finishing down here in my part of the world with the great southwest Blizzard of 78 on the 18th Feb with drifts up to 30 feet high, and all this from a winter that wasn't even in the top twenty coldest of the 20th century!!

 

My message to coldies is keep the faith. Those of us who have been around a fair old while like myself know that it is often a waiting game with the British winter especially down south.

Edited December 15, 2013 by mcweather

[irishlad69]

Well we have now moved from the wrist slashingly poor output ( for coldies ans snowies) of the euro high induced mild to more normal fare for winter especially here in the south west, namely endless low pressures whizzing across on the jet stream.

 

But before we have any more winter is over posts.

It would probably do us good to remember that from a snow lovers point of view.  Some of our greatest snow events have occurred in other wise mainly westerly driven winters. We do  not need a 63 or 47 scenario to have a decent spell of biting cold and extreme snowfall.

 

Take the winter of 77/78 for instance, December and the first three weeks of January were dominated by by a mainly westerly flow and even a southerly at times with nothing much more than the odd toppler yet the last week of January and first two weeks of feb produced the great highland Blizzard then a spell of severe cold with widespread snowfalls finishing down here in my part of the world with the great southwest Blizzard of 78 on the 18th Feb with drifts up to 30 feet high, and all this from a winter that wasn't even in the top twenty coldest of the 20th century!!

 

My message to coldies is keep the faith. Those of us who have been around a fair old while like myself know that it is often a waiting game with the British winter especially down south.

 

although I agree with what you say however the majority of us coldies, or at least I hope the majority would love to have snow for Christmas day, at least not for us but for the kids

[irishlad69]

I'm starting to feel like winter is not worth it if there is no prospect of snow.. might as well be mild and sunny. I need to go abroad for the winter to escape this miserable island (weather-wise, that is).

 

I agree, maybe Egypt

Edited December 15, 2013 by reef
Removed personal comment

[Nimbus Nix]

Piers Corbyn's at it again... http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01lslr7 @42:06

 

He makes quite a bold prediction @51:51 - "There's a very good chance of a considerable amount of snow in Scotland and the North on New Year's Eve"

 

Well, we shall see... but as ever with his forecasts it does seem to leave quite a bit of room for ducking and weaving: For instance, even though I'm sure most of us wouldn't find a couple of inches on top of Ben Nevis considerable; I know one person that might.

Still, with such a firm prediction it gives us a good chance to see how far wide of the mark he is.

 

Current GFS way out in FI (Not that it makes a difference of course):

 

[camperstron]

I think that dec 2009 and 2010 were unusual for their notable cold and have spoiled us cold lovers This December is as Decembers usually are - wet, grey and windy.

January and February are the months for proper cold in the UK. So let's not write winter off just yet.

[stewfox]

I think that dec 2009 and 2010 were unusual for their notable cold and have spoiled us cold lovers This December is as Decembers usually are - wet, grey and windy.

January and February are the months for proper cold in the UK. So let's not write winter off just yet.

 

In need and lets not forget what March delivered this year.

 

We can get cold and we can get pro longed periods of cold/snow.

[Methuselah]

Piers Corbyn's at it again... http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01lslr7 @42:06

 

He makes quite a bold prediction @51:51 - "There's a very good chance of a considerable amount of snow in Scotland and the North on New Year's Eve"

 

 

He might actually be right: a sea-level temp of only 4C and gale-force westerly winds, places above about 200m can see an awful lot of snow. And large tracts of Scotland are above 200m ASL... 

Edited December 15, 2013 by No-Time Toulouse

[Wynn D Woo]

In need and lets not forget what March delivered this year. We can get cold and we can get pro longed periods of cold/snow.

Unfortunately March delivered nothing here, once past about the third week of Feb it's pretty much game over for my location. Last two winters have been generally disappointing snow wise. A bit early to be writing winter off but I'm not feeling like its going to be much this year either.

[Panayiotis]

Now that the 18z is back in line with the other models regarding a cold, unsettled and windy Christmas, watch the ensembles back the Op, its what they normally do...

Edited December 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[MP-R]

I think that dec 2009 and 2010 were unusual for their notable cold and have spoiled us cold lovers This December is as Decembers usually are - wet, grey and windy.

January and February are the months for proper cold in the UK. So let's not write winter off just yet.

 

To a point, but 12C is not usual December weather - 6-7C is. Also, at least in my lifetime, many of the most prolonged cold spells (albeit mainly anticylonic) have come in December. For example, in the woeful winter of 07/08, the best cold spell came between 12th-23rd December. Certainly for here this has been the mildest start to December in a very long time!

 

Edit: just realised that sounded like a dig which it isn't. Just want to point out that the current weather is not the norm for December - these temperatures would not be out of place at the end of October.

Edited December 16, 2013 by Miguel Hugo Roberto

[georgiedre]

Well it looks to me that there's a change afoot. Even bftp seems to think so for the New Year maybe!! Copied from one of his posts last night:::::: Just to touch more on my LRF before I do next months outlook, I am still very keen on the potential 'gamechanger' storm over NY period. I think there will be some substantial snow produced from this and may usher in a very cold period. Its coming within deep FI of GFS now...and some wild swings as one would imagine. Nice to see some PM and rPM air appearing with sub lows occurring now.

BFTP

[sebastiaan1973]

For the first time ever the AO reached 4.0 in november as well as the following december in the same year.

 

In my opinion november and december 2013 together will have a record high AO. So just another extreme AO. In march the AO reached very low levels.

[irishlad69]

is it just me or from the 22nd/23rd December and according to both ECMWF & GFS there will be a big battle between the warmth and the cold, although I don't believe in the charts that far out, due to the fact the say different things but they are going the same direction this time

[RCT]

GFS update seems to be going for a slightly colder outlook! Hopefully this this continue :/

[Weather-history]

is it just me or from the 22nd/23rd December and according to both ECMWF & GFS there will be a big battle between the warmth and the cold, although I don't believe in the charts that far out, due to the fact the say different things but they are going the same direction this time

That far out? It is just a week away.

[irishlad69]

That far out? It is just a week away.

 

I know what you mean and hope your right however remember the cold spell we where meant to get over a week ago, and 3 days before it all changed, and it only lasted 24 hrs rather than the 3-5 days that was stated a week before 

[hillbilly]

I guess all those who were bigging up this winter are being laughed at by those who hate the cold but there is plenty of time for snow and cold,will we get it ,who knows.We are overdue a cold January and February  we havnt had any big falls in these months for many years except for the very beginning in 2010...we shall see!!!

[Summer Sun]

The met office ensemble mean maps have updated covering January, February and the first month of spring

 

We have a signal for high pressure to sit in the Atlantic and drift over to the UK

 

 

With the high we have below average rainfall

 

 

850hpa temps are average to slightly below

 

 

2m temps range from slightly below to slightly above average

 

 

A quick look at the final month of winter and into spring and once again we have a signal for high pressure to stay put

 

Edited December 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[R.P. McMurphy]

All the signals are there for cold to take over shortly and into the new year. Any mild or warmer weather has dissappeared, quite a turn around from just a week or so ago. Have a feeling this winter will be one to remember!

[dec10snow]

The met office ensemble mean maps have updated covering January, February and the first month of spring

 

We have a signal for high pressure to sit in the Atlantic and drift over to the UK

 

 

With the high we have below average rainfall

 

 

850hpa temps are average to slightly below

 

 

2m temps range from slightly below to slightly above average

 

 

A quick look at the final month of winter and into spring and once again we have a signal for high pressure to stay put

 

Wasn't long ago they were calling for a below average December (along with Jan and Feb)... Just goes to show how useless LRF's can be, even just a month out!