Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Carl46Wrexham]

I think the upcoming storms are going to break up the horribly mild pattern we are in right now. Can only be a good thing if you like cold. My gut feeling tells me it's going be turning colder from around the 23rd.

 

 

I certainly hope so....this wretched weather is bringing out my SAD symptoms big time.....how anyone can like this mild dark damp crap is beyond me. Give me a clear sunny day with the temperature close to freezing over this muck any time.

 

Yeah people can talk this weather being good re: heating bills...but its not good for the electric bill...lousy light levels making it necessary to have the lights on in the house.

 

Yeah Im in a bad mood....only started my light therapy a couple of minutes ago.

[MPG]

Once again the touted EC32 is being used to forecast an extended period of no real cold. This model changes like the wind. I actually challenged Matt Hugo with regards to his continual chopping and changing of his outlook, mainly because he uses the EC32.............

 

HE BANNED ME FROM FOLLOWING HIM ON TWITTER!

 

  

Edited December 13, 2013 by MPG

[feb1991blizzard]

Im afraid this keeps happening and its not going to change in December.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxl9mY-YSg4

 

 

Hopefully though, it will  be happening but a lot higher in the atmosphere mid to late jan, aided by some strong mountain torque events and some stonking wave activity, at the moment we have freddy kruggar in action but if we don't see anything meaningful up top being models by 20th Jan, the fat lady will be starting to harmonise with him, once them two start dancing to each others tune, they all too often start dancing over the graves of people like me, who want snow, that's the stark reality of the situation.

[MR EXTREMES]

_{http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tSkZuOrwfs}

[Weather Boy]

I think the upcoming storms are going to break up the horribly mild pattern we are in right now. Can only be a good thing if you like cold. My gut feeling tells me it's going be turning colder from around the 23rd.

 

There's been quite a lot of reference to "horriby" or "very" mild weather but that's not what I've been recording so far this month.

 

Today is mild, but that's the first double digit max I have recorded this month which has been generally 6-9C maxes, and mins of 0-3C (only one air frost so far though); which for my location is probably a degree or so below average for early December.

 

I note your location is a long way from me, so that could explain it - interesting that all this supposedly mild stuff has certainly not materialised in the UK's south-eastern quarter at least.

 

Is it just your impression that it's mild (i,e no snow, little frost), or is it something that you can say with confidence?

[Summer Sun]

There's been quite a lot of reference to "horriby" or "very" mild weather but that's not what I've been recording so far this month.

 

Today is mild, but that's the first double digit max I have recorded this month which has been generally 6-9C maxes, and mins of 0-3C (only one air frost so far though); which for my location is probably a degree or so below average for early December.

 

I note your location is a long way from me, so that could explain it - interesting that all this supposedly mild stuff has certainly not materialised in the UK's south-eastern quarter at least.

 

Is it just your impression that it's mild (i,e no snow, little frost), or is it something that you can say with confidence?

 

There is a lot of regional and even local variations in the temperatures this month here in Darlington today is the 8th day of double figure temperatures

 

The average high here up-to the 12th is 9.2c

[mountain shadow]

Once again the touted EC32 is being used to forecast an extended period of no real cold. This model changes like the wind. I actually challenged Matt Hugo with regards to his continual chopping and changing of his outlook, mainly because he uses the EC32.............

 

HE BANNED ME FROM FOLLOWING HIM ON TWITTER!

 

  

 

Well more fool you.

 

The EC32 is THE BEST medium range forecasting tool out there and obviously changes each issue depending on the prevailing situation at the time.

 

How else do you expect Matt to forecast then if not by using the best tool out there?

 

Only a fool or a trickster would stick to a forecast that is clearly going to be wrong, like Madden for example.

[Summer Sun]

Lately the EC32 has become consistent (certainly the past 3 updates) we must remember it had an update a few weeks back so it may be more reliable now,  as ever time will tell

[draztik]

Once again the touted EC32 is being used to forecast an extended period of no real cold. This model changes like the wind. I actually challenged Matt Hugo with regards to his continual chopping and changing of his outlook, mainly because he uses the EC32.............

 

HE BANNED ME FROM FOLLOWING HIM ON TWITTER!

 

  

 

The EC32 has been consistent the last few runs, as has already been stated in the MOD thread. And, the trend going into January is for temperatures to be on the colder side of average. I thought you would champion this, not denounce it at every given turn.

Edited December 13, 2013 by draztik

[Snowynorth]

Xmas week looks cold to me. We will still be under low pressure dominance however due to a high pressure forcing its way in to acrtic from the north side ( Bering straight area ) it will force colder air in the low pressure nr the uk. As a big high pressure says dominant in Russia the low becomes near stationary and weakens but starts to pull in a northerly air flow for xmas week. We are not talking bitter cold but cold enough for snow and far from a mild scenario that everybody seems obsessed with.  

 

Gfs, ecmwf,gem,jma all have this high pressure building scenario.

[MPG]

Well more fool you.

 

The EC32 is THE BEST medium range forecasting tool out there and obviously changes each issue depending on the prevailing situation at the time.

 

How else do you expect Matt to forecast then if not by using the best tool out there?

 

Only a fool or a trickster would stick to a forecast that is clearly going to be wrong, like Madden for example.

Well an excellent tool for getting your medium term forecast wrong then. A week of so ago, Ian F was mentioning cold is his outlook, so did Matt, using the EC32 then suddenly it flips back to mild/zonal.

 

Im sure its going to change to more of a colder outlook as we head to the end of the month.....another flip.

 

The answer you gave me is understandable, if it is regarded as the best medium range tool out there, but for Matt to ban me for asking his opinion is just childish and probably proves I a little be right. Maybe he should base his medium term forecasts on more than just one model (im sure he does).

Edited December 13, 2013 by MPG

[UV-RAY]

The EC32 has been consistent the last few runs, as has already been stated in the MOD thread. And, the trend going into January is for temperatures to be on the colder side of average. I thought you would champion this, not denounce it at every given turn.

Three times in how long though, remember last winter it was consistent as in consistently wrong. I don't rate it one bit and it will take many a more months of it being consistent before I start heaping praise on it. Sick with the 7-10 days time frame and the Strat thread, the rest you can simply follow yourself by looking for trends.

[Barry12]

If Cairo can get snow, then so can we!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Well more fool you.

 

The EC32 is THE BEST medium range forecasting tool out there and obviously changes each issue depending on the prevailing situation at the time.

 

How else do you expect Matt to forecast then if not by using the best tool out there?

 

Only a fool or a trickster would stick to a forecast that is clearly going to be wrong, like Madden for example.

 

 

Agreed its the best monthly model out there but there are better manual tools out there, the ones that Stewart and chiono and the like use, ie, looking at the current teleconnections, predicting where they are likely to go over the next 2 weeks, which is achievable with the GEFS / ECM means and MOGREP for people with access, and then as a result using that to then predict the H5 pattern for the next 4 weeks or more.

[RCT]

Anyone got any updates about what is going on? 

[Summer Sun]

Anyone got any updates about what is going on? 

 

If its cold, frosts and snow your after then not a lot

 

If its deep lows, strong winds at times along with rain and some sunshine then there is plenty coming up

 

Out to the 22nd GFS sums it up temperature wise below

 

[hillbilly]

Anyone got any updates about what is going on? 

Wind and rain indefinitely!

[Froze were the Days]

Haven't seen the models this bad since the woeful winter of 2006/7 and with such a raging jet stream about to take hold which will take some shifting I have a very bad feeling about this winter if cold and snow is your thing.

[Weather-history]

Haven't seen the models this bad since the woeful winter of 2006/7 and with such a raging jet stream about to take hold which will take some shifting I have a very bad feeling about this winter if cold and snow is your thing.

2011-12 wasn't exactly brilliant at this stage. 2007-08 wasn't brilliant neither.

[tynevalleysnow]

2011-12 wasn't exactly brilliant at this stage. 2007-08 wasn't brilliant neither.

neither was 1946/7Christmas day chart for 1946 below not too different from this years setup.

Edited December 15, 2013 by tynevalleysnow

[irishlad69]

I am not sure if you all believe in this sort of thing, but I was going for a newspaper at 0800hrs the sky was bright red and then from no where hundreds of geese was flying over head, and I mean that literally, hundreds of geese, I have never in my life seen such a large flock,  it was quite eerie as they turned south westwards, maybe I am just hoping this is a really good sign

[Captain Shortwave]

I am not sure if you all believe in this sort of thing, but I was going for a newspaper at 0800hrs the sky was bright red and then from no where hundreds of geese was flying over head, and I mean that literally, hundreds of geese, I have never in my life seen such a large flock,  it was quite eerie as they turned south westwards, maybe I am just hoping this is a really good sign

Alas the most probable message is that you will need to pick up your toppled over wheelie bins in 24 hours time 

[Summer Sun]

Things can, do and have changed quickly in the past but the current met office update to mid January doesn't offer much in the way of wintery weather still by this time we'll be just over half way through winter

 

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Dec 2013 to Monday 13 Jan 2014:

 

Conditions look likely to remain rather unsettled, especially towards the north and northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier and brighter conditions towards the south and southeast. There is also the chance of some colder and showery spells in the north and west at times. Otherwise, temperatures probably staying around normal across the United Kingdom generally, although there could be some colder nights in the south and east with a risk of frost and fog in places.

 

I think patience is going to be needed more than ever this winter

[cheese]

I'm starting to feel like winter is not worth it if there is no prospect of snow.. might as well be mild and sunny. I need to go abroad for the winter to escape this miserable island (weather-wise, that is).

Edited December 15, 2013 by cheese

[meathead]

Things can, do and have changed quickly in the past but the current met office update to mid January doesn't offer much in the way of wintery weather still by this time we'll be just over half way through winter

 

 

I think patience is going to be needed more than ever this winter

 

Oh yes because a weather report up to mid January is going to be correct isn't it? You only post things on this forum that cold fans don't want to hear, It's like you're trying to wind people up in a disguised type of way.