Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[irishlad69]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRuT2SV2oxk

 

how reliable is Gavin P ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

CFS is crap though! he knows his stuff very well, but that model will change to the opposite quite likely

[meathead]

how reliable is Gavin P ?

 

More like how reliable is the cfs model. I am hoping very reliable 

[Summer Sun]

Right to the end of November CFS was still showing high pressure dominating to the north of the UK thats not looking likely at this stage

 

 

Just goes to show CFS is no better or worse than any other model

Edited December 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

Right to the end of November CFS was still showing high pressure dominating to the north of the UK thats not look likely at this stage

 

 

Just goes to show CFS is no better or worse than any other model

Indeed Gav, it may well have got March right but it's been way off the mark since then. Just goes to show you may as well look at tea leafs and seaweed and you'll still stand a better chance than long range models.

[Methuselah]

Right to the end of November CFS was still showing high pressure dominating to the north of the UK thats not looking likely at this stage

 

 

Just goes to show CFS is no better or worse than any other model

True. And, when you're talking of thirty-weeks-down-the-line, there ain't much (bar the 'normal') to go on...

[SnowObsessor90]

Our biggest enemy right now just as it has been in many past Winters is that purple monstrosity known as the Polar Vortex, hopefully get good news from the strat over the next month otherwise I might have to  actually seriously consider going abroad to get my fix this  time.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CFS update, explanation for the charts can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211

 

Below is the January chart, daily values are the blue bars, 10 day mean in red and trend in black.

 

 

The last 7 days have averaged averaged 0.4 (neutral to weak blocking), with 3 runs showing positive SLP anomalies, 4 runs showing negative and none showing neutral (previous week averaged 1.1, with 5 positive, 2 negative and no neutral).

There's been a sharp downturn in the last few days, with the 10 day mean at its lowest point of 0.1, which suggests a lot of uncertainty with January's forecast.

 

Below is the February chart, starting from October 1st.

 

 

The last week averaged 1.1 (weak blocking), with 5 positive runs, 1 negative and 1 neutral. The previous week averaged 0.7, with 5 positive and 2 negative runs.

Like other months I've looked at, the CFS has suggested mainly +ve SLP anomalies to our north over the last few months, but with a negative trend overall. 

 

Here are some highlights from the last while.

 

The Best

 

 

The Worst

[chubbyfan]

these long range prediction models (5 days+) seem to give false optimism to a lot of folk depending on what sort of weather they are wanting.

 

occasionally they are good, like the st judes storm in late oct that was flagged up even before it existed. often forcesting past 5 days seems a bit hit n miss.

Edited December 6, 2013 by chubbyfan

[Eugene]

Yes, there are strong signs going forward of something very similar to 88/89. Certainly the US guys are anticipating a very flat pattern for January.

 

Yes the 25th anniversary of that god awful winter and wouldn't it  be fitting if it occurred exactly 25 years later.

 

I don't think it will be that bad though, December and January will be have some cold inversion type weather in SE Britain, I see the worst of the mild being in the NW.

 

I can't see anything that positive until early to mid February when blocking should be more dominating in the right places, we have a stale mate atm with a huge high over europe not wanting to budge but the atlantic still strong enough not to allow it to dominate our weather and likely to last for a good while yet, I don't think Jan will be that flat but more like what we had these past few weeks though very poor for proper winter fans as chilly cloudy weather is not what they want.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Typical IB post, 88/89 according to bonacina looked okay, 6-7 inches of snow on 5th April, not sure here though, hope same this winter!

 

surely we are due a snowy April? Apr '13 was very cold, still snowmen from the march snow, but actual falling snow in April '13 just a few flakes on 2nd

Edited December 6, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Weather-history]

Typical IB post, 88/89 according to bonacina looked okay, 6-7 inches of snow on 5th April, not sure here though, hope same this winter! surely we are due a snowy April? Apr '13 was very cold, still snowmen from the march snow, but actual falling snow in April '13 just a few flakes on 2nd

Winter 1988-89 was pretty snowless. Many places didn't see a snowflake during December and January even in Scotland.Aren't we due a notably cold February? Last one was 23 years ago next February.

[cheese]

Cold in Scandinavia today..

 

 

At 11am, it's -27.0°C at Karesuando, Sweden. Oslo is the coldest capital in Europe right now, at -5°C, followed by Stockholm at -4°C.

Edited December 7, 2013 by cheese

[BornFromTheVoid]

2nd most positive November AO on record. The only time the November AO was more positive.... 1978.

 

[meathead]

Any updates on the CFS? how is it looking for cold?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope we are due a cold Feb, Feb '13 was cold at times, but not much snow here

[Gord]

We're not heading towards an 88/89 winter. We're not heading towards a 62/63...or a 78/79 or whatever.

 

We're heading towards a 13/14 winter...we don't know what it's going to do yet! Only at the end can we really start to make the comparisons.

 

I agree that pattern matching can be useful in a scientific sense...but the data and the evidence needs to be broad and taken from several winters...not all pinned towards one. There are some excellent posters on here who take a scatter of examples from various winters to explain their thoughts. As someone who is learning myself, I find that really useful.

Edited December 7, 2013 by Gord

[chionomaniac]

2nd most positive November AO on record. The only time the November AO was more positive.... 1978.

 

Hmmm. 1978 there it is again! West QBO, ENSO neutral, similar solar conditions......

 

Feb 1979:

 

 

[bluearmy]

Hmmm. 1978 there it is again! West QBO, ENSO neutral, similar solar conditions......

 

Feb 1979:

 

Rrea00119790215.gif

 

Rrea00219790215.gif

 

dec '13 doesn't look like panning out too much like dec '78 though ed

[irishlad69]

the cold always seems so close, and then BANG, it gets shoved out of the way, we seriously need the North Atlantic current to break down around the beginning of November every year, we just need to figure out exactly what controls it ?

[gary1365]

from my understanding is it's cold highly saline dense water sinking that drives it but i don't think anyone really knows 

Edited December 7, 2013 by gary1365

[meathead]

Mad head Madden posted this on his Facebook page the other day 

 

When will the major cold and snow arrive for the UK & IRELAND?

The models will begin to firm up on a significant area of high pressure on the continent, which should trigger a period of significant cold (easterly) and snow for in or around the 23rd - 30th December (dates as originally suggested in April 2013).

 

I sure hope he's right 

[Steve C]

dec '13 doesn't look like panning out too much like dec '78 though ed

I don't remember anything about the winter of 78/79 until after Christmas...

 

I think you're taking his point way too literally.

[bluearmy]

I don't remember anything about the winter of 78/79 until after Christmas...

 

I think you're taking his point way too literally.

 

steve, ed is pointing out that 78/79 followed a very +AO nov.  he also thinks that we could see some proper cold come feb. (as happened in '79) my point was that dec '78 was a month that saw some proper cold whereas dec this year seems very unlikely to head that way.  so the analogue doesnt stand up in broad terms from my perspective.

[karyo]

Mad head Madden posted this on his Facebook page the other day 

 

When will the major cold and snow arrive for the UK & IRELAND?

The models will begin to firm up on a significant area of high pressure on the continent, which should trigger a period of significant cold (easterly) and snow for in or around the 23rd - 30th December (dates as originally suggested in April 2013).

 

I sure hope he's right 

No chance! Lol