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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

NASA HIGH RES has a front of snow moving through in its 0z run which makes it down into England

 

post-18233-0-21913100-1384613992_thumb.ppost-18233-0-88197600-1384613992_thumb.ppost-18233-0-80547600-1384613993_thumb.ppost-18233-0-39892700-1384613994_thumb.ppost-18233-0-70786500-1384613995_thumb.ppost-18233-0-28472100-1384613996_thumb.ppost-18233-0-75039500-1384613996_thumb.ppost-18233-0-25862000-1384613997_thumb.ppost-18233-0-25152200-1384614006_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Maybe they are just covering their backs. Or maybe Gavin is right and the sea temps will erode the cold, because it is still 11.8c at Castlerock.

 

I am just basing my opinion on what normally happens and usually with -8c uppers we readily see snow right down to the beach so thats why I was surprised at them forecasting rain (not even sleet) seven miles inland (and at 50m)

It is a really bad idea of them to forecast rain anyhow because it probably will snow and then people are going to be shocked when its not raining which is not on. I think they've done this before and I remember people ranting about how it was snowing when they forecast rain.

 

hi sm

did you try my suggestion?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

don't know if this has been added its the video from yesterday from gavsweathervids and showing a few good updates for December

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5hUYF_aNw#t=597

 

and todays video for the week ahead

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLOgSaFlqX0#t=408

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Well number 1 I thought it would be far colder than 5c, maybe 2c? Then I thought that we would see a window of heavy dry snow from 9pm Monday to 6pm Tuesday based on the current gfs run. 

 

I don't think you will see temps as low as that, winds are too West of North. And any snow will be of the wet variety.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

don't know if this has been added its the video from yesterday from gavsweathervids and showing a few good updates for December

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5hUYF_aNw#t=597

 

and todays video for the week ahead

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLOgSaFlqX0#t=408

 

A slight concern with that outlook for me is that it reminds me slightly of November/December 1988?  We had some cold weather in November but we all know what happened as we went through December!

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Well short term UKMO has certainly delivered some excitement this afternoon for a cold weather friends!I

It was very grim at yesterday.But look at it now..there is hope

 

Models change day to day.all fun.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

right usually not looking at GFS too much as due to last year don't rate it too highly but it has gave us a peek at what we will need if we see heights push toward Scandinavia and even though it doesn't come off right in the run it would have potential if this is the road we went down so I have done a little paint

 

first look toward the black arrow to the bottom right and notice we have a LP that stops the highs from linking up(we want to see this) as you can then see from the red arrows this allows the cold air into western Russia and Europe which would cool things down considerably.

 

the rest is what I would like to see after with the yellow arrow on the low pressure over Greenland which we would want to ride over the high taking the PV with it sinking it into Europe and western Russia and hopefully this would then open up Greenland for either high pressure to get an attempt at moving into Greenland or to our north.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Well short term UKMO has certainly delivered some excitement this afternoon for a cold weather friends!

 

yes a little excitement but if you look at my last post we would need something to separate the highs we don't have this in the UKMO so it would kill the 850's

 

post-18233-0-00486500-1384621153_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

another very snowy saturday in Calgary that 4 weekends in a row now

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Don't know where to post this but given the predictions months ahead Carl Sagan quoted in dig at long range forecasters yesterday! (from 1:13)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvB-i3t7vsY

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

After Gavin aka Summer Sun was caught at work smashing his old late 90's style desktop, footage has emerged of him smashing his new laptop after seeing tonights UKMO.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1ZdrNOaOWE&feature=player_detailpage

LOL!!!!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

another very snowy saturday in Calgary that 4 weekends in a row now

 

ooohh you tease...!!! Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

So how are the charts looking now? Good or bad for cold lovers? 

 

Well Tuesday and Wednesday continues to look to coldest period when snow could fall especially on higher ground

 

see this video for more info - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24972437

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

26260% chance of snow

 

Posted Image

 

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Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire (850ft/260m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow !
  • Location: Derbyshire (850ft/260m ASL)

Another winter visitor doing the annual sign-in....:wave:

 

I live on the edge of the Derbyshire Peak District, about 850ft up.

I have a 40 mile comute across the Peak District to work in Stockport, about half of my journey being over 1000ft, peaking at either 1450 or 1650ft depending which route I take. I usualy start off around 6am when it's still nice and cold.

 

I monitor the level of activity on here for my signal to switch to winter tyres - and they've gone on this weekend Posted Image

 

Not quite sure what the concensus is yet for the week ahead, I'm suspecting some decent frosts, and some falling snow on higher parts of the journey, but little settling.

 

Does that sound about right ?

 

I'm settling in for the winter ride on here anyway. I've learnt my lesson over the last 2-3 winters not to get too excited - been several occasions when I've told my work colleagues about impending snowmageddon, only to find the models go boom a day or two before...

 

Anyway, I enjoy reading the posts on here, a lot of it is over my head, but I get the gist. Keep it up!

Edited by muddymickey
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Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

My gut feeling tells me that it will be very cold on Tuesday, Wed, Thursday and stay cold but not as cold through next weekend, after that I think temps will rise slightly until around the 27th and from then on we will see some proper cold with blocking develop. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

Certainly not in November which was mild and very wet. December 2009 was chilly though with some significant falls across the country and a widespread white Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted · Hidden by UV-RAY, November 17, 2013 - I can't alter some of the wording
Hidden by UV-RAY, November 17, 2013 - I can't alter some of the wording

You are the last person I would listen to.

To be fair to Ian he makes a valid point also he may have had a theory regarding modern you know what, but he' s still damn good at making forecasts in the short medium term.
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

If my memory serves me correctly (which as my wife will tell you, is unusual!), when we had that amazing cold spell in 2009/10 didn't we have a slight initial cold spell, much like next weeks, before the proper cold moved in? Posted Image

As posted above, November 2009 was very mild, one of the mildest and the wettest on record. However, it did turn quite chilly towards the tail end. The start to December 2009 was also very mild, but it turned cold by the 10th thanks to heights building over the country, the proper cold didn't set in until the 17th. It thereafter remainded very cold through to mid Jan, with a slight warm up during the third week of Jan, but thereafter it stayed mainly cold right through to mid March. A proper cold winter - much more so than winter 10/11 which saw mild weather predominate from early January.

 

Whilst we can and do see very cold weather on occasion during the latter part of November - it is a very tall order to expect very cold weather to predominate thereafter until March - indeed no winter in at least 100 years has delivered such conditions. The last winter to see nearly 3 months of very cold weather was 62/63 which saw a very cold start to December after very cold weather mid month November, but it became milder until christmas.

 

Its easier to maintain the cold theme from mid December onwards through to end of February. Early December is the least likely part of the winter to be cold

 

Some recent winters have been quite unusual in this respect, in that we have seen cold weather at the end of November last through early-mid December, in the case of 2010 right through to christmas. 08/09 saw a cold end to November with cold weather until mid Dec but then a major warm up before christmas. Last year saw a similiar spell of weather, with mild weather returning mid Dec. The ideal scenario is a 2009/10 set up, if this was mid December now, the prospects of a locked in cold period lasting deep into winter would be very high.

Edited by damianslaw
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