Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Last time an update for this was posted it was showing unsettled weather for all of November with nothing cold, this model flips and flops as much as any other one

 

Hence the "hopefully its correct" Posted Image At the very least it's a potential positive to go along with the pattern change the models are showing.

Edited by radiohead
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Hence the "hopefully its correct" Posted Image At the very least it's a potential positive to go along with the pattern change the models are showing.

 

Chris Fawkes on twitter

 

@_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"

Cold snap next week. Peak of cold Tue & Wed. Although temperatures rise a bit after, they will prob stay on low side for following week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Last time an update for this was posted it was showing unsettled weather for all of November with nothing cold, this model flips and flops as much as any other one

I have to agree SS as much as I'm hoping for it to be correct this time.

Chris Fawkes on twitter

 

@_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"Cold snap next week. Peak of cold Tue & Wed. Although temperatures rise a bit after, they will prob stay on low side for following week

He tweeted the exact same yesterday and by my reckoning nearly  two weeks of cold isn't a snap.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

He tweeted the exact same yesterday and by my reckoning nearly two weeks of cold isn't a snap.

I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;post-12721-0-05852000-1384517249_thumb.jAlways nice to see some collective support! :) Edited by AWD
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.

Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Always nice to see some collective support! Posted Image

 

First tweet (not the same as 2010) is yesterday 2nd is today

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.

Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Always nice to see some collective support! Posted Image

Low pressure in europe is the key

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

For those of you expecting a flake or 2 next week:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Some incredible shots here:

 

http://chaoticmind75.blogspot.ru/2013/08/my-technique-for-snowflakes-shooting.html

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Both of the met offices updates talk of high pressure to the north of the UK keeping it drier here, there are signs of a slight recovery nearer to normal temperatures by the middle of December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

From the latest Met Office Outlook :

 

Showers will be a wintry combination of rain, sleet and snow, giving locally significant snow accumulations over higher ground, and perhaps even to lower levels at times.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Street,Somerset
  • Location: Street,Somerset

For those of you expecting a flake or 2 next week:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Some incredible shots here:

 

http://chaoticmind75.blogspot.ru/2013/08/my-technique-for-snowflakes-shooting.html

 

Its still mind blowing how nature can produce something so beautiful as a snow flake. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.

Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Always nice to see some collective support! Posted Image

 

given that naefs is a combo of gem ens and gefs, if chart 3 didnt look like 1 and 2, we'd be asking some serious questions !

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I think you mean one month too early Gibby unless you are saying there is absolutely no chance of memorable cold spells until mid January, well I think December 2010 and many other cold spells where the coldest temps on record for the UK are recorded in late December disprove your point big time, second half of December can be very cold indeed as nights are at their longest/sun power weakest and the continent starting to get very cold.

 

We do need to put this one to bed.

 

Recent Decembers have trended cooler (CET etc)

 

Some people have again suggested you cant get deep cold in December

 

December 2010 would have ranked the 15th coldest January in 350 years and the 7th  coldest February  in 350 yrs.

 

In need had it not turned milder at the “â€end of Decemberâ€â€ it would have ranked even higher

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

We can get deep embedded cold early in the winter with the right synoptics and -18c at night mid December near where I live in Benson with the right set up is easily obtainable.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Have all the models downgraded today?

 

A more realistic take on things would be the best way to describe it

 

Some were over hyping it too much

 

Any chance you could pop your location into your profile?

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

Or could it just be a one off run and by tomorrow morning they will be back on track. I really hope so....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Going to be cold regardless, so Summer Sun will be very unhappy which is excellent news for the rest of us.. lol.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

I do find it funny how when the models show milder weather everyone believes them.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I do find it funny how when the models show milder weather everyone believes them.....

 

 

MEATHEAD check your messages at top of screen the little envelope

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Just watch the 18z give us a Stella run and leave us all scratching our heads...

 

C.S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The latest update from NASA is in it continues to go for an average or slightly above average winter

 

Posted Image

 

Rainfall looks bang on average

 

Posted Image

 

Individual months for temperatures don't offer much for cold with December and January above average and February on average

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Individual months for rain show February to be slightly above average away from the east and south east but with December and January quite average we get an average winter overall

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

So another model is signalling a fairly average UK winter for precipitation and temperatures range from average to marginally above

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

From Summer Sun:

 

The latest update from NASA is in it continues to go for an average or slightly above average winter

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

I dont buy that image. It has most of the northern hemisphere in the above average category and that looks plain wrong. No science to my statement here other than a gut disbelief at the distribution of all that yellow.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...