Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. This is a new low even for the tabloids.

 

The problem is people can take these things seriously.

 

You feel you need a JH disclaimer to each article

 

e.g “â€â€at the very best we can make reasonably reliable forecasts out to 4/5 days please treat this forecast as you would a horoscope, harmless funâ€â€

Edited by stewfox
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow blizzard
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire

Haha that's quite brilliant, if a little annoying! Hes a sensationalist that's for sure but his accuracy isn't too bad!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Express, Star and Mail. Should hang there heads in shame, there inaccurate weather information from the likes of Madden, Corbyn, Jon Powell.... The stories get worse! Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The problem is people can take these things seriously.

 

You feel you need a JH disclaimer to each article

 

e.g “â€â€at the very best we can make reasonably reliable forecasts out to 4/5 days please treat this forecast as you would a horoscope, harmless funâ€â€

 

happy to provide that to them for quite a small fee!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Slightly delayed update...

 

Below is the latest CFS 12z blocking trends for December

 

Posted Image

 

The 10 day average remain close to 1, or weak +ve SLP anomalies to our north, with the downward trend remaining quite strong.

The last 7 days have averaged 1.7 (moderate blocking), with 1 run having -ve SLP anomalies to our north, and 6 with +ve (previous week averaged 1.3, with 1 -ve, 2 neutral and 4 +ve runs)

 

 

Below is the latest January graph

 

Posted Image

 

 

The 10 day mean was close to 2 for most of the time, but dropped close to 1 over the last 2 days. The trend remains close to neutral though.

The last week has averaged 1.1, with 2 -ve runs and 5 +ve (previous week averaged 2.0, with 6 +ve and 1 neutral run).

 

Some highlights from the last week

 

Best

January 2014 from November 6th

Posted Image

 

Worst

March 2014 from November 10th

 

Posted Image

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Express, Star and Mail. Should hang there heads in shame, there inaccurate weather information from the likes of Madden, Corbyn, Jon Powell.... The stories get worse! Posted Image

 

Tell me about it the Daily Mail have a headline tomorrow

 

"Drinkers risk injury as big freeze on the way, health and safety officials in Newcastle have warned drinkers to be careful, warnings go un heeded".

 

When does it end.Posted Image 

post-7914-0-19825000-1384349243_thumb.jp

Edited by stewfox
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

ECM run again today shows the massive uncertainty in the modelling to our north. Bear in mind that this is a standard deviation assessment of the variation in spread, and quite clearly the ECM is having trouble resolving what is going on:

 

Posted Image

 

 

I would suggest this is a good thing for cold. The models are usually pretty good at pinning down a strong westerly pattern and I would expect the deviation to be a lot less if such a pattern were likely. The spread of ENS options does not guarantee a blocking scenario in the making, but it does increase the chances!

 

Personally I still dont see a major shot of cold on the horizon but I am more optimistic than I was a week ago when the signals to me looked like they were falling in line for a very unremarkable run up to Xmas. Wave 2 impact on the strat is still forecast and that can only be a good thing. SSTs as I posted yesterday could be a lot worse and CFS has them moving in the right direction.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

CFSv2 AO forecast looking -ve going into December

 

post-18233-0-83165500-1384352522_thumb.p

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Taking a look at the latest CFS forecast averaged over the last 4 runs for the winter months.

Pressure/Temperature/Rainfall

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

December

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

January

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

February

Edited by draztik
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

I realise for many on here cold equates with snow but one phnomenon we've not seen for a few winters and which might be overdue for a revisit is a large HP sitting over or just to the East of the UK in midwinter.

 

This is perfectly capable, via inversion, of bringing ice days and extensive fog to southern eastern and central areas of England as well as east Wales and southern Scotland.

 

It's a route to cold some on here won't like as there won't be any snow so we're not dealing with Greenland or Scandinavian HP cells but perhaps a displaced Azores HP or possibly even a retrogressing MLB.

 

Anyway, put the HP in the right place with some clear air and let the inversion do the rest in midwinter.

 

I'm not one for winter forecasts or reading the various runes but if I were to put some money (and very nce money it is too) on an event this winter it would be a mid-December HP with frost, fog and very cold, settled conditions.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

ECM run again today shows the massive uncertainty in the modelling to our north. Bear in mind that this is a standard deviation assessment of the variation in spread, and quite clearly the ECM is having trouble resolving what is going on:

 

 

I prefer to use the normalised SD shown on the ECMWF website. Although the spread is high, the context provided by the normalised product shows that it doesn't stand out as being seriously unusually high for that part of the world in recent weeks. Flicking through the runs up to the end of next week, I'd argue that the most interesting spread appears to our south, associated with the possible troughing forming over Europe, which is relevant to how the high might eventually orient itself if it does flatten somewhat.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 12 z having a wobble motion again? (i think so imo, she struggles laughable with such scenarios, ie breakdown of the pond/ energy displacement. Ecm for control ...for me anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

my punt for this winter below

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Whilst I'm very interested in the current model output, after early December last year, I'm not going to get excited just yet!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, about 12 miles from Norwich
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, snow, and cold snowy snow
  • Location: South Norfolk, about 12 miles from Norwich

Madden and Powell........Posted Image

 

Although I will have a cheeky fiver at the bookies for a touch of snow on Crimbo day.......I wonder if Ladbrokes would give me odds on an ice floe ripping past Great Yarmouth as well....???Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

from MATT HUGO on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m

There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK.

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

from MATT HUGO on twitter Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK. Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

Do you remember last December when 41 of the 51 supported THAT ECM. Just saying like. :-)
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

my punt for this winter below

 

from MATT HUGO on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m

There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK.

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

could he mean a bit like this....

 

post-18134-0-01627900-1384377352_thumb.p i certainly hope so

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Do you remember last December when 41 of the 51 supported THAT ECM. Just saying like. :-)

Yes, hence why I'm NOT getting excited!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

could he mean a bit like this....

 

Posted Imagecfs-0-312.png i certainly hope so

The chart you have posted is not very cold. Here are the 850's...

 

Posted Image

 

I would much prefer to see something along these lines...

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Edit: Above charts have now changed.

Edited by SE Blizzards
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

 

I would much prefer to see something along these lines...

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Those charts are as close to November/December 2010 as you can get. I actually thought they were archive charts at first.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...