Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Buriedundersnow]

GEM 12z looking good at 240h as well

 

[Buriedundersnow]

eh where did all the scatter go on the GEFS

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

eh where did all the scatter go on the GEFS

 

9.gif

 

That's the short ensemble.....only goes out to day 7/8

[Gaz1985]

News article about the severe hailstorm that hit Manchester today, lots of pictures for those of you who haven't seen them.

 

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/flooding-after-hail-rain-thunder-6288101

Edited November 9, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Buriedundersnow]

That's the short ensemble.....only goes out to day 7/8

 

ah didn't notice that lol  

[gary1365]

wow some amazing clouds and weather wish i was there to see that. haven't seen really heavy hailstones in a long time

[Buriedundersnow]

ok now we have scatter  looking ok for my location with a few dipping under -5

 

[Formula_1_Fan]

It wasn't snow, it was very heavy hail that looked like it had snowed, even now a few hours later there is still a slight covering on my grass and some on the road and pavement. It was about 2 inches deep covering all surfaces when it first fell, heaviest hailstones for a long while here.

Looking at some of the other pics it looks like it must have been a pretty spectacular storm! I was supposed to be visiting some family in Manchester this weekend so I am a bit gutted I missed that.

[boywonder]

Met office extremes last Night:

 

lowest minimum Aboyne -5.9 C.(Second coldest of the winter so far).

highest maximum temperature isle of scilly 13.3 C.

Lowest maximum temperature Dalwhinnie 3.6 C.

highest rainfall Stonyhurst 20.4 mm.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Met office extremes last Night:lowest minimum Aboyne -5.9 C.(Second coldest of the winter so far).highest maximum temperature isle of scilly 13.3 C.Lowest maximum temperature Dalwhinnie 3.6 C.highest rainfall Stonyhurst 20.4 mm.

That should be second coldest of autumn so far....... winter starts on Dec 1st.

[Boro Snow]

Edited November 10, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Boro Snow]

North pennines yesterday

[syed2878]

thanks summer sun and to the others who replyed. Interesting the current thinking from the met i wander if these forecasts could all of a suddon get an upgrade lets hope so.

[Moot]

Thanks for the replies yesterday. The highs of 3 have now turned to 8 and the snow is now rain 😔. Think I'll just stop looking and hope for the best although we do have a frost this morning ðŸ˜

[smithyweather]

Did you listen to your man gibby just now on the model thread. 'Wintry mix' a wintry mix with -8c uppers? I DON'T THINK SO!!! 

 

Ugh.. 

 

Also this word 'mild' keeps being used everytime, it is not mild anywhere. It is 1c this morning at 10am and yesterday we had a high of 5c, that is more like 'COLD'.

Edited November 10, 2013 by smithyweather

[smithyweather]

Thanks for the replies yesterday. The highs of 3 have now turned to 8 and the snow is now rain . Think I'll just stop looking and hope for the best although we do have a frost this morning

 

Theres no point in looking for snow tonight out of that weather system. It is bringing up very very mild air up behind it so if the snow starts it would only last about 2 hours max and then it would melt really rapidly.

 

It's a waste of time.  I would've looked for snow if the mild sector was a little colder with say -2c uppers. 

Edited November 10, 2013 by smithyweather

[AWD]

Did you listen to your man gibby just now on the model thread. 'Wintry mix' a wintry mix with -8c uppers? I DON'T THINK SO!!!

You do realise that the 850hpa temperatures are only one small ingredient in predicting snowfall and should never be taken in isolation. Just because the 850hpa temperatures are modelled as -8c doesn't automatically preclude PPN falling as snow.We need to look at other factors too, including but not exclusively;- SST's around the UK. These could mix the 850hpa temps out a little and thus something less cold might be present at the surface, where we are!- Dewpoints. These ideally need to be below freezing too, especially if your looking for something away from slush that might provide a settling scenario- Wet Bulb Freezing Level. Essentially this is the level of height required where the change over from rain - snow (and vice versa) is present. - Elevation. As above, the higher up you are the less chance you have of seeing any colder 850hpa air getting mixed out.- Thickness Values. These are the values that are normally associated with lower pressure. These need to ideally be below 528DAM for snowfall to become a possibility.- Ground Tenperatures. If the ground is warm then any snow won't stay for long.This can obviously work the other way too, with snowfall possible under -2c/-3c 850hpa temps etc, showing how the 850hpa temperatures aren't the decisive factor alone when forecasting snowfall.

[smithyweather]

Well to be honest i've never seen anything other than snow with those uppers.

 

Usually uppers lower than -5c pretty much always have snow. -5c uppers are in between, it can be rain, sleet or snow. 

Edited November 10, 2013 by smithyweather

[boywonder]

 

Scotland, North East England have had snow so far..Lack of snow  in Wales realy Sucks..

Edited November 10, 2013 by boywonder

[Summer Sun]

Scotland, North East England have had snow so far..Lack of snow and cold in Wales realy Sucks..

 

Only on the high ground though plus the north always gets snow before the south, it looks like everywhere will be turning milder for a time this week so some snow will start to melt no doubt

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/

OPI forecast translated in English by one of the founders.

Edited November 10, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[Buriedundersnow]

dont know if this has been added yet its from gavsweathervids I think from yesterday the first part is about haiyin but watch from about 4 mins onwards

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yg4dEOMihmg#t=462

 

and heres todays video again looking

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2oPJj3C-4Y#t=430

Edited November 10, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[SE Blizzards]

Latest  CFS 6Z and 12Z. Strong blocking still showing, and long may it continue 

 

 

[Ian Brown]

Scotland, North East England have had snow so far..Lack of snow  in Wales realy Sucks..

Do you expect to see snow before the middle of November ? Pretty rare for England and Wales.

[Gord]

Do you expect to see snow before the middle of November ? Pretty rare for England and Wales.

 

Depends how high up you live. Although I see boywonder lives in Wrexham, so snow would be rare there this early!

 

Was in the Highlands over half term, was nice to see the tops of the Cairngorms dusted white. Coming back on the train through the Lake District I didn't see any evidence of any snow on the tops there (although many of them were hidden by the large thunderstorm rolling through there that afternoon!). How are the Welsh mountains doing so far? Anyone know? When I lived in Bangor, Snowdonia could have snow on the tops by late October.

Edited November 10, 2013 by Gord