Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[syed2878]

hey peeps do any of u have the 16-30day forecast from november 2010? Its interesting they mensioning wintery showers and below av temps. I want to c how the 2010 nov 16-30day forecast was worded.

[Summer Sun]

hey peeps do any of u have the 16-30day forecast from november 2010? Its interesting they mensioning wintery showers and below av temps. I want to c how the 2010 nov 16-30day forecast was worded.

 

I shall try and find it any particular date/s?

[Dancerwithwings]

hey peeps do any of u have the 16-30day forecast from november 2010? Its interesting they mensioning wintery showers and below av temps. I want to c how the 2010 nov 16-30day forecast was worded.

 

Not the BBC/METO...... But this might help;

If you want to change the dates look at the four boxes under Archive towards the top right.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&ARCHIV=1&JJ=2010&MM=11&TT=10&&JJA=2010&MMA=11&TTA=11

 

Then (Look back) as it was.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=209&FILE=loo&ARCHIV=1&JJ=2010&MM=12&TT=03&&JJA=2010&MMA=12&TTA=01

Edited November 9, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

Found the forecasts

 

November 1st they wrote

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 16 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

 

The last two weeks of November are expected to begin wet, windy and feeling autumnal across the UK. However it is likely to become drier towards the end of the month, with some parts of the UK seeing below average rainfall especially the east of England and the southwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to begin slightly above average but then become closer to the average later in the period.

Updated: 1206 on Mon 1 Nov 2010

 

That remained more or less unchanged till the 5th, then they wrote this

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Nov 2010 to Saturday 4 Dec 2010:

 

The trend is for generally more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas.

Updated: 1208 on Fri 5 Nov 2010

 

That remained until the 9th by this time we have the first hints of an easterly and the snow

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 8 Dec 2010:

 

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

Updated: 1219 on Tue 9 Nov 2010

 

Slight changes to the update on the 10th

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Nov 2010 to Thursday 9 Dec 2010:

 

There is a trend for slightly more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Precipitation should be mostly below average, especially in the west, with the driest and brightest weather expected here. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers into eastern areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with an increased risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1154 on Wed 10 Nov 2010

 

Slight changes again on the 11th

 

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Nov 2010 to Friday 10 Dec 2010:

 

Remaining generally settled, but cold across much of the UK. Precipitation should be mostly below average, with the driest and brightest weather expected in the west. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers into eastern areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with a risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1153 on Thu 11 Nov 2010

 

So looking at those they picked up on the signal of easterlies quite early on the 9th

Edited November 9, 2013 by Summer Sun

[gary1365]

ha ha i was reading that thinking how is he getting forecasts from the future then i realised lol. i was getting excited.

[BristolBlizzard]

Those forecasts from the MetO in November 2010 seem well under-estimated to what actually happened at the end of the month. Not criticising the MetO, I just love how unpredictable the weather can be at times. Some of the best snow events I can remember were either under-estimated or completely unexpected.

[Dancerwithwings]

Those forecasts from the MetO in November 2010 seem well under-estimated to what actually happened at the end of the month. Not criticising the MetO, I just love how unpredictable the weather can be at times. Some of the best snow events I can remember were either under-estimated or completely unexpected.

I've edited my post and put a link as it was in Nov 2010

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/page-43#entry2829921

[Moot]

Hi guys, 1st post but been reading this forum for past few months. Metcheck forecasting snow for my region (South Yorkshire) from the 21st of November. Now I know from reading what you guys post that nothing is concrete as far as the weather is concerned but just a quick question - are the models predicting cold from mid November and how good are metcheck with forecasts? Any replies greatly appreciated ðŸ˜

[gary1365]

the best snow i remember has always been unexpected. i remember when i was a child i think it was the winter of 91-92 or maybe 90-91 i was out with my dad and i said it's going to snow. my dad laughed at me it then snowed all night and there was a good few inched on the ground you couldn't drive down the hill out of my street for days.

 

infact almost all the great snow events i can think of have been unexpected i don't have a very good memory so i could be wrong lol.

Edited November 9, 2013 by gary1365

[Barry12]

Hi guys, 1st post but been reading this forum for past few months. Metcheck forecasting snow for my region (South Yorkshire) from the 21st of November. Now I know from reading what you guys post that nothing is concrete as far as the weather is concerned but just a quick question - are the models predicting cold from mid November and how good are metcheck with forecasts? Any replies greatly appreciated

 

The models are predicting cold from mid November, I don't know about metcheck - but that forecast for snow is unlikely.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Barry95

[Buriedundersnow]

the best looking charts I can find from the GEFS 12z

 

[Buriedundersnow]

quite a few on the GEFS 12z dip below -5 for my location

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Mouth watering from GEFS member, no 20

 

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[JK1]

those charts feel me with dread lol

[cyclonic happiness]

those charts feel me with dread lol

O all the 48h downgrades you mean? :-D

[bridgechad]

apparantly snake pass will be shut tonight due to snow and ice! 

[mpkio2]

Wow! This thread is really starting to bubble with excitement at the possible outcomes after mid-November, including myself.

 

Already mentions of hail falling in manchester, Met warnings of ice onn roads, MetO 16-30 forecast uncertain but mentions "below temps", and the models coming out with some stonking possible outcomes around the 20th of November. I mean that a look at the Run de controll from the GFS Esemble 12z run:

PV is disrubted and that pacific ridge is really our friend.

 

The models gain more support everyday for a cold shot at the end of November. How long it will last, and whether it will come to frutition, is another question all together. But still very encouraging to see. Bring on Winter 2013/14!!

[Skullzrulerz]

So much going on for mid-nov but beware of The evil downgrades...Mahhahahahaha

[Buriedundersnow]

apparantly snake pass will be shut tonight due to snow and ice! 

 

 

just ice they got it wrong

 

UK Snow Updates â€@UKSnowUpdates 4m

Correction, A57 shut due to ice, not snow! Apologies

[Buriedundersnow]

another one of those runs we have been getting recently that you wish it went on another day or two     

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

So much going on for mid-nov but beware of The evil downgrades...Mahhahahahaha

All part of the fun ! There will be upgrades and downgrades all the time!

[Mountain Snow]

Up Skiddaw today, around 2-8 inches of snow above 600m. Got battered by hail and gale force gusts on the summit, proper winter conditions on the fells today!

[Summer Sun]

Scandinavian snow cover is slowly starting to increase

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Summer Sun

[mpkio2]

another one of those runs we have been getting recently that you wish it went on another day or two     

 

ECH1-240.gif

LP to north of us moves East, HP to our southWest retrogresses up to join HP to the East of USA and then BOOM! We're in business my friend.

[gary1365]

please!!! i want lots of snow and cold again but i don't want to pay the oil for the heating though lol

 

it's getting to the point i'm starting to cross my fingers

Edited November 9, 2013 by gary1365