Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Don]

I noticed today that the newest EC seasonal run has done a fairly dramatic flip in ditching the signal for northern blocking over winter, and going for higher than normal heights across the temperature Atlantic, just to our south, and lower than normal heights to our north. Now looks very similar to the MetO seasonal forecast from a few weeks ago. 

 

Another one bites the dust then?  Typical!  However, I don't the think the EC seasonal performed particularly well in the run up to last Winter, but it does seem to have a certain amount of support from some other long range models at the moment.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Don

[Buriedundersnow]

a bit more of Europe turning blue on the 12z run and the UK colder as well

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

? It was -4'C here a few nights ago, all the Scottish cities have thus far experienced below freezing temperatures.

 Indeed NorthernRab -6 was recorded in Katesbridge Northern Ireland on Monday morning

[Polar Maritime]

Found this funny from early'er. Looks like a man up the pole now on the webcam, so hopefully not long before we get our power back on at Glencoe Mountain Resort.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NorthernRab]

 Indeed NorthernRab -6 was recorded in Katesbridge Northern Ireland on Monday morning

 

Didn't even notice it had got that cold in Norn! 

[smithyweather]

Ok its northern ireland and yes it has. 6c max today.

[> mark]

Whats happened here (or not) then?!

 

Not really been following recently but remember a buzz earlier about the expanse of early snow coverage?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

S>HIT 168 ECM

[NorthernRab]

Ok its northern ireland and yes it has. 6c max today.

 

I know

 

 

 

What's been the coldest so far? I haven't been watching.

[Buriedundersnow]

? It was -4'C here a few nights ago, all the Scottish cities have thus far experienced below freezing temperatures.

 

 

yeah its been below freezing here a few times as well had to scrape the car in the morning

[NorthernRab]

yeah its been below freezing here a few times as well had to scrape the car in the morning

 

Sorry, I said the cities not the towns 

 

Joking aside though, it's certainly been a cold start to November!

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent 240 ECM.

[Catacol]

Whats happened here (or not) then?!

 

Not really been following recently but remember a buzz earlier about the expanse of early snow coverage?

 

 

It was forecast. Been a big melt this week due to SW winds across western Russia with Moscow experiencing very warm temps. However back to normal next week - snow should rebuild a bit.

[Buriedundersnow]

Sorry, I said the cities not the towns 

 

Joking aside though, it's certainly been a cold start to November!

 

yeah it has turned chilly from what it was and hopefully it will get a lot colder and whiter as the we get on into winter

[smithyweather]

I know :)What's been the coldest so far? I haven't been watching.

-1c. I've had two frosts not much but lods of 2c nights. Just a cool spell tbh, not mild nor cold.

[SE Blizzards]

 

Lovely ending to tonight's ECM.

 

CC has been quite bullish over his thoughts about things turning cooler/colder from mid November onwards and if you see post #378 which was posted last week i was in total agreement with him and said that i was watching out for a pattern change just after mid month, and as of yet i have seen very little that has changed my way of thinking. Of course, nothing is set in stone as of yet but there are some small but rather encouraging signs (albeit in FI) starting to show up on some of the models that something very interesting 'could' be imminent.

Let's just hope that something similar to tonight's ECM run verifies, because if it does i think winter 2013/14 could start off with quite a loud bang. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Some decent Murrmurings, model thread trending good, lets hope it starts to explode in the next couple of days.

[feb1991blizzard]

I am still not completely on board yet but I do feel one of those forum meltdowns coming on within the next week.

[SE Blizzards]

I am still not completely on board yet but I do feel one of those forum meltdowns coming on within the next week.

 

Yes, it's still very early days of course, but at least we are now starting to see something worth note in the charts compared to all the complete dross we've had to put up with just recently.

[sundog]

I hope by late next week we can get Charts like the last frame of tonights ECM coming into a semi -reliable time frame.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Lovely ending to tonight's ECM.

 

CC has been quite bullish over his thoughts about things turning cooler/colder from mid November onwards and if you see post #378 which was posted last week i was in total agreement with him and said that i was watching out for a pattern change just after mid month, and as of yet i have seen very little that has changed my way of thinking. Of course, nothing is set in stone as of yet but there are some small but rather encouraging signs (albeit in FI) starting to show up on some of the models that something very interesting 'could' be imminent.

Let's just hope that something similar to tonight's ECM run verifies, because if it does i think winter 2013/14 could start off with quite a loud bang. 

 

Yes you have been in agreement.

 

If I remember correctly my assessment about 4 weeks ago for the period of latter October through November was 'Unsettled, potentially stormy then trending colder as we progress through November'. Well we got the storminess, just need to see the cold materialise now!

 

Now, if we could see a Canadian warming ignite (as coolingclimate has alluded to) then we could steering on course for the projected -AO winter I think we'll see.

[boywonder]

? It was -4'C here a few nights ago, all the Scottish cities have thus far experienced below freezing temperatures.

 

Below freezing for what met office stations have recorded not the local stations or thermometeres.

Edited November 8, 2013 by boywonder

[bryan629]

I am still not completely on board yet but I do feel one of those forum meltdowns coming on within the next week.

Totally agree with you on that one Feb.....models have been showing tentative signs from time to time of a pattern change very much looming in FI...I think at the moment the models have been toying with different solutions , but something is almost certainly on the horizon... I also think that because heights are expected to rise in the very near future and they keep placing it in different areas... will it rise north up to Greenland, will it rise halfway up mid latitude and get flattened shortly after...will it rise over the uk and end up retrogressing to Greenland or sit over scandi is the million dollar question at this time....either way and whatever the solution, I feel the atlantic express will soon be on the tracks of the polar express..... tickets please

[UV-RAY]

I am still not completely on board yet but I do feel one of those forum meltdowns coming on within the next week.

I've been quietly confident  of a cold shot the second half of this month from the NW/N and without blowing my own trumpet I did say I expected a mid Atlantic ridge  way back at the beginning of October or thereabouts. Off course I maybe completely wrong and we could end up with a Bartlett.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[NorthernRab]

Below freezing for what met office stations have recorded not the local stations or thermometeres.

 

Again. ?  - the weather stations for each respective city's airports have recorded below 0'C.