Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[boywonder]

Lowest Minimums According to Met office Last night.

 

Dalwhinnie -6.1 C.

Tulloch bridge -6.1 C.

Redesdale camp -5.2 C.

Loch Glascarnoch -4.9 C.

Tyndrum -4.9 C.

Braemar -4.4 C

Kibrace -4.3 C.

Altnaharra -4.3 C.

 

Lowest in wales was balla with 3.2 C..No below freezing point for wales which is surprising at this stage.

Edited November 6, 2013 by boywonder

[Summer Sun]

Daily Express still adamant we're in for a severe winter

 

Christmas already? No, an early taste of a 'paralysing' winter as snow hits UK

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2827800

 

[Froze were the Days]

Nice CFS v2 run this morning, in fact the best run for some time - good blocking through late November/December and particularly early January. If only!!

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo has posted his thoughts for winter here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2827853

 

Excuse the 'rambling' nature of this post but I have now certainly falling into a specific category regarding this winter and that is for it to be nothing special...

Edited November 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MrSunshine]

Matt Hugo has posted his thoughts for winter here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2827853

 

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

[JK1]

maybe because not all of use like cold few just prefer mild

 

 

 

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

Edited November 6, 2013 by JK1

[Summer Sun]

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

 

I have posted colder forecast's but not many seem to popping up currently, a fair few seem to be leaning towards an average or mild winter

[cheeky_monkey]

 

maybe because not all of use like cold few just prefer mild

 

 

 

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

 

plus the fact it gives a nice balance to all the cold solutions that are endlessly rolled out

[MrSunshine]

there are some people of us tht like mild weathr

 

maybe because not all of use like cold, we all have are own likes

 

But surely that's just grasping at straws, it's winter it's supposed to be cold you have the warmth from late April until the end of October. Time for us coldies to get our fair share of preferred weather surely?  

[Summer Sun]

The top of Glencoe has had a good top up of snow over the past few days

 

 

670 meters

 

[tight isobar]

I would advise some to take a look at the meto further updates..as advised confidence in any weather type steeps away strongly, as we deepen Nov/ early dec.with, no great signals on the table,(yes) certain telecon ie QBO etc I think some suprises may await.It's that knife edge for me.!!!

[lorenzo]

An overall positive trending AO for winter has in previous winters also included periods of negative AO.

So all is certainly not lost. That said we could do with an SSW again this/early next year after a period of staring at a rampant vortex.

[UV-RAY]

Just a quick question Summer Sun, why do you only post things on this thread and the model thread that are in favour of a mild solution for this coming winter? Only asking a question so don't take it the wrong way.

In defence  of SS he does post colder options when they are evident, of course he posts more mild ones out of preference but how many of us do exactly the same with cold charts.

Edited November 6, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[MrSunshine]

In defence  of SS he does post colder options when they are evident, of course he posts more mild ones out of preference but how many of us do exactly the same with cold charts.

 

True!! I never post about warmer charts or solutions so you have a point!

[Skip Spence]

But surely that's just grasping at straws, it's winter it's supposed to be cold you have the warmth from late April until the end of October. Time for us coldies to get our fair share of preferred weather surely?

Given our temperate climate here in the UK, I'd suggest it's supposed to be mild in the winter.

[Summer Sun]

Met office response to the winter story in the Daily Express today

 

UKMO Chief Forecaster re today's D Express: "As yet, no indications that we're at increased risk of anything worse than normal winter weather".

 

Curtsey of Ian Fergusson on Twitter

Edited November 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[tight isobar]

Met office response to the winter story Daily Express today  Curtsey of Ian Fergusson on Twitter

Met office response to the winter story Daily Express today  Curtsey of Ian Fergusson on Twitter

....I hope this eases, the fragility on both parts, It's a case of suck it and see atm.it goes either way or directly down the middle as things stand.no clear indications.

[Snowmadsam]

I also found this from Joe B's twitter....this is the NASA winter forecast...

 

 

Edited November 6, 2013 by Snowmadsam

[simshady]

Met office response to the winter story in the Daily Express today

 

 

Curtsey of Ian Fergusson on Twitter

 

Normal winter will do me. Some cold, some snow, some frost, some rain...

[Buriedundersnow]

I also found this from Joe B's twitter....this is the NASA winter forecast...

 

 

looks good and pointing towards a lot of blocking to our north

[mountain shadow]

Liking that NASA forecast. Well above 2m temps in the Greenland local, indicative of higher pressure with WAA on the Western Greenland side of an Atlantic ridge with CAA on the UK side.

Whilst I see no early signs of a prolonged winter spell, i think we will be looking for Northerlies for our snow this Winter rather than Easterlies.

[UV-RAY]

looks good and pointing towards a lot of blocking to our north

Blocking to our North with a trough to our South = Fireworks!

[forecaster]

I also found this from Joe B's twitter....this is the NASA winter forecast...

 

I'd like to know how good the model is. Unfortunately it seems Joe B favours posting cold outcomes. 

 

OK it looks like he posted the raw output. If you look at the one with the masking (i.e. removed anomalies where the expected skill is too low) it looks much more bland:

 

Edited November 6, 2013 by forecaster

[Buriedundersnow]

I'd like to know how good the model is. Unfortunately it seems Joe B favours posting cold outcomes. 

 

OK it looks like he posted the raw output. If you look at the one with the masking (i.e. removed anomalies where the expected skill is too low) it looks much more bland:

 

 

still looking blocked

[meathead]

I want cold as much as the next person but it's not going to get cold here until Europe has cooled. Moscow is getting a heatwave at the moment.