Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Mark Neal.]

Its snowing as we speak on Nevis Range.

 

Yup! http://www.nevisrange.co.uk/live_webcams.asp

 

Glencoe range.. 

Edited November 5, 2013 by Mark N

[Thundery wintry showers]

I had the impression that the Maunder Minimum in solar activity was at least partly responsible for a cooling of more than 1 degC in north-western Europe, but that the impact on the mean global temperature was just three or four tenths of a degree (I recall reading 0.347C somewhere as the best-guess estimate).  Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of solar minima that exceed previously-observed limits, but it does suggest that the regional impacts of reduced solar activity are larger than the global impacts.

 

My hunch for this upcoming winter is a mild and wet December, probably with a brief wintry spell midmonth, a cold January with opportunities for snowy spells, and then a mild and relatively dry February- but my confidence on this is very low.

[Panayiotis]

Anyone check the CFS 1month? 

Amazing charts and with no doubts bring snow to most places, however we are looking between the range of 360hrs to 780hrs which as we all know is past the reliable! Nice to see nonetheless and it will be interesting to see if the CFS continues to show these cold setups for November/start of December!

Please note that these images will update, so they couldve have completely changed by the time you look at them! Posted at Time 3pm.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

Whoops! just realized CFS has not updated since yesterday 12z, we'll have to wait as see if we get an update today

[Mark Neal.]

My hunch for this upcoming winter is a mild and wet December, probably with a brief wintry spell midmonth, a cold January with opportunities for snowy spells, and then a mild and relatively dry February- but my confidence on this is very low.

 

I have to agree with you there Ian. I think we could have to wait until Mid January for a cold spell to come our way, though that said there will be cold snaps from time to time, just it seems the Atlantic has come into first gear at the wrong time for those searching for cold/snow, it was quiet so long, nature does seem to have a weird way of balancing things out. I guess last 5/6 years we have been really lucky for snow for our shores, after the previous majority of mild winters with lack of the white stuff..

 

I think the best thing to do currently is look for patterns in FI, in the models for consistency if thats possible Don't take LRF as gospel and the next few weeks will be interesting to see where High pressure sets up and how the jet profile becomes as we go into winter. Also good to look at what is happening in the Stratosphere with Ed and Seb etc... 

 

For now back to searching webcams for high ground in Scotland 

[Gael_Force]

I had the impression that the Maunder Minimum in solar activity was at least partly responsible for a cooling of more than 1 degC in north-western Europe, but that the impact on the mean global temperature was just three or four tenths of a degree (I recall reading 0.347C somewhere as the best-guess estimate).  Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of solar minima that exceed previously-observed limits, but it does suggest that the regional impacts of reduced solar activity are larger than the global impacts.

 

My hunch for this upcoming winter is a mild and wet December, probably with a brief wintry spell midmonth, a cold January with opportunities for snowy spells, and then a mild and relatively dry February- but my confidence on this is very low.

 

We do not have European records for the same length of time as the CET record, the ones we do have cover the Dalton - quite variable even at small global geographic distances.

 

[stewfox]

I had the impression that the Maunder Minimum in solar activity was at least partly responsible for a cooling of more than 1 degC in north-western Europe, but that the impact on the mean global temperature was just three or four tenths of a degree (I recall reading 0.347C somewhere as the best-guess estimate).  Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of solar minima that exceed previously-observed limits, but it does suggest that the regional impacts of reduced solar activity are larger than the global impacts.

 

My hunch for this upcoming winter is a mild and wet December, probably with a brief wintry spell midmonth, a cold January with opportunities for snowy spells, and then a mild and relatively dry February- but my confidence on this is very low.

 

 

The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle—and coldest part—of the Little Ice age.

 

I don't think there is any evidence of global drop in temp.... '0.347' as a 'estimate' ? That's some estimate .

 

During the Maunder minimum there were an unusually large number of cold winters in Europe. However, there is no evidence that this was a global phenomenon

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

[Cheshire Freeze]

Whoops! just realized CFS has not updated since yesterday 12z, we'll have to wait as see if we get an update today

 

The runs are always about 24 hours behind.

[Summer Sun]

County Durham recorded its first snowfall this morning (Tuesday, November 5) at Lanehead in Weardale and across areas of Teesdale.

[Polar Maritime]

The Snow Groomers have just arrived at Glencoe.. :-)

[smithyweather]

What will the snowline be in nw ni on friday with 527dam heights?

[smithyweather]

Its snowing as we speak on Nevis Range.Yup! http://www.nevisrange.co.uk/live_webcams.aspGlencoe range.. snow glencoe.jpeg

Whats the highest house in that region of scotland? 500m?Even though we have a comparatively "mild" climate i'd say anywhere at that height in BI would do great for snowz

[beng]

The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle—and coldest part—of the Little Ice age.

 

I don't think there is any evidence of global drop in temp.... '0.347' as a 'estimate' ? That's some estimate .

 

During the Maunder minimum there were an unusually large number of cold winters in Europe. However, there is no evidence that this was a global phenomenon

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

 

There's are a few papers that have found evidence that it was global in impact.

 

http://explorations.ucsd.edu/research-highlights/2012/research-highlight-the-little-ice-age-was-global-scripps-researchers-say/

 

"Scripps graduate student Anais Orsi and colleagues found evidence of the same cooling trend in samples of ice from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. That contradicts prevailing theories that the Little Ice Age was not globally synchronized, but a regional cooling possibly triggered by changes in ocean circulation that created a temperature see-saw effect between the hemispheres."

 

I don't know if the above paper I've linked to above carries that much weight, but it seems to me that Stephen Wilde might be on to something -

 

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/stephen-wilde-a-new-climate-model/

 

if you have prolonged negative NAO and AO conditions, then the jet stream and associated cloud zones should be pushed further south - increasing albedo - creating something of a global effect.  

 

From an open minded scientific point of view, I'm hoping the sun stays quiet and we get to put this whole thing to the test.  

[Mark Neal.]

What will the snowline be in nw ni on friday with 527dam heights?

 

Depends on the isotherm i guess.... Uppers of -4c would be a good idea of wintry mix. I would imagine anywhere on high ground would see precipitation at least wintry if not snow, i see you have elevation so good chance of something more wintry for sure!

[smithyweather]

Well I mean like actual snow.

It says 6c max for me.

With -3c uppers

[Nick B]

Well I mean like actual snow.It says 6c max for me.With -3c uppers

You'd want a bit better than that.  No more than 2 max with perhaps -6 uppers, and then dewpoints below 0 and decent precipitation as well.  If it's too light, even with those figures, it won't be snow.  Patience

[syed2878]

i'm quite sure apart from the next few cold winters the temps will rise and in the next 20-30 years u.k will be like the tropics. This should please the pro gw puppets and they will be jumping for joy. I beleave this winter wil be a mixt cold, mild, snow and rain.

[Buriedundersnow]

The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle—and coldest part—of the Little Ice age.

 

I don't think there is any evidence of global drop in temp.... '0.347' as a 'estimate' ? That's some estimate .

 

During the Maunder minimum there were an unusually large number of cold winters in Europe. However, there is no evidence that this was a global phenomenon

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

 

the fact that it seems to be only Europe that suffers with colder winters during periods of low solar activity has to either mean more SSW's or the PV staying away from Greenland more and finding a new home for winter.

[UV-RAY]

There's are a few papers that have found evidence that it was global in impact.

 

http://explorations.ucsd.edu/research-highlights/2012/research-highlight-the-little-ice-age-was-global-scripps-researchers-say/

 

"Scripps graduate student Anais Orsi and colleagues found evidence of the same cooling trend in samples of ice from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. That contradicts prevailing theories that the Little Ice Age was not globally synchronized, but a regional cooling possibly triggered by changes in ocean circulation that created a temperature see-saw effect between the hemispheres."

 

I don't know if the above paper I've linked to above carries that much weight, but it seems to me that Stephen Wilde might be on to something -

 

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/stephen-wilde-a-new-climate-model/

 

if you have prolonged negative NAO and AO conditions, then the jet stream and associated cloud zones should be pushed further south - increasing albedo - creating something of a global effect.  

 

From an open minded scientific point of view, I'm hoping the sun stays quiet and we get to put this whole thing to the test.  

I know Stephen's work quite well and I would agree that it was far more than a regional event, but due to the lack of records kept in the SH we have to rely on proxies, not my favourite way of determining our past but apart from a time machine it's the only thing we have at our disposal at this current time.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[smithyweather]

You'd want a bit better than that. No more than 2 max with perhaps -6 uppers, and then dewpoints below 0 and decent precipitation as well. If it's too light, even with those figures, it won't be snow. Patience

Well tbh it can snow with 4c max. But i'm not expecting snow here i'm just trying to see the snowline.

[BristolBlizzard]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody know what the charts were showing for December 2010 a month beforehand?

[Summer Sun]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody know what the charts were showing for December 2010 a month beforehand?

 

Click archive and you can go right back to 2007 - http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

Edited November 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Buriedundersnow]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody know what the charts were showing for December 2010 a month beforehand?

 

we were pretty much zonal just like now

[tight isobar]

Yes zonal influence strongly modeled...and then.....

[sundog]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody know what the charts were showing for December 2010 a month beforehand?

I think the models were starting to pick up on the Northern Blocking about 2 weeks before the cold spell arrived from what i remember. The cold arrived last week of Nov the models had been started showing blocking from around the second week of Nov i think.

 

Around Mid Nov 2010 the excitment was kinda starting to build if i recall.

Edited November 5, 2013 by sundog