Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Interitus]

Mike Lockwood has responded to being incorrectly cited as predicting a new little ice age by Paul Hudson in a recent BBC article.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/solar-activity-and-the-so-called-%E2%80%9Clittle-ice-age%E2%80%9D/

 

The article is very interesting, and he explains clearly the implications and uncertainty associated with declining solar activity.

 

Very interesting as his work is usually wheeled out to portray significant cooling which doesn't actually agree with his thoughts.

[snowking]

I think it's fair to say most of the international long range seasonal models are going for a rather "benign" Winter for the UK, a bit like Winter 2011-12. 

Might be best to provide some evidence of that Gaz.

 

The russians certainly agree with that prognosis based purely on 2m temps:

 

 

As does the latest run of the GLOSEA met office model:

 

 

We then have the last 3 days of runs from the CFS which places us pretty much average to perhaps just slightly above:

 

 

We then have the JAMSTEC model pointing to below average (and has done now for some months):

 

And whilst I can't manage to load a temperature anomaly image for the northern hemisphere from the Chinese model, with this sort of H500 anomaly profile:

 

 

One would envisage the UK being left on the polar side of the Jet Stream a number of times through the winter.

 

To that extent too it should be pointed out that the T2m anomaly projections from the CFS seem rather out of kilter with the projected H500 anomaly over the Arctic, bearing in mind this image is averaged from 21 days of CFS runs:

 

 

And when we isolate that further to look at January and February (again, averaged from over 21 days of CFS runs) in isolation:

 

 

We see plenty of potential for something colder.

 

So it's always best to provide some evidence to back up any such claims.

 

From what I can see to be honest its a very mixed picture with plenty of warmer and colder solutions in there - i.e. overall it really leaves us none the wiser. Part and parcel of the reason I don't tend to pay too much attention to long range forecasting models when compiling thoughts on a seasonal basis

 

SK

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly ENSO update

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Continues to predict ENSO neutral for the foreseeable future.

[UV-RAY]

Mike Lockwood has responded to being incorrectly cited as predicting a new little ice age by Paul Hudson in a recent BBC article.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/solar-activity-and-the-so-called-%E2%80%9Clittle-ice-age%E2%80%9D/

 

The article is very interesting, and he explains clearly the implications and uncertainty associated with declining solar activity.

But if you watch it on iplayer, he wasn't misquoted at all. Anyway that's not for here and besides I don't rate Lockwood that highly as he's been playing catch up with Landscheidt for many a year and still hasn't got to grips with UV output and their influences on pressure patterns.

[Methuselah]

But if you watch it on iplayer, he wasn't misquoted at all. Anyway that's not for here and besides I don't rate Lockwood that highly as he's been playing catch up with Landscheidt for many a year and still hasn't got to grips with UV output and their influences on pressure patterns.

And, oddly enough, neither has anyone else...

[Yarmy]

Mike Lockwood has responded to being incorrectly cited as predicting a new little ice age by Paul Hudson in a recent BBC article.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/solar-activity-and-the-so-called-%E2%80%9Clittle-ice-age%E2%80%9D/

 

The article is very interesting, and he explains clearly the implications and uncertainty associated with declining solar activity.

 

"During the Maunder minimum there were an unusually large number of cold winters in Europe. However, there is no evidence that this was a global phenomenon. Indeed, our research strongly suggests it was a regional phenomenon and that the colder winters in Europe would have been accompanied by warmer ones elsewhere, for example Greenland."

 

Result!  

 

Seriously, I was suspicious about the original blog as it contained no direct quotes from Lockwood. Ignoring climate for the moment, the claim that solar activity is declining at its fastest rate in 10k years (9300 years specifically) is a grand one. The same author once claimed in a paper that the Sun's coronal magnetic field had doubled in the 20th Century. A similarly grand claim that he has since retracted.

 

http://www.wdc.rl.ac.uk/wdcc1/papers/nature.html

 

 

[picog]

so basically, theyre suggesting a positive AO, with High pressure dominating central and western Europe (incl. UK), with below average precipitation.this forecast isn't going to appetize many. Thanks for sharing tho, very interesting!

Still better than wet. Prefer cold and snow, but potentially dry will do as second choice.

[BornFromTheVoid]

But if you watch it on iplayer, he wasn't misquoted at all. Anyway that's not for here and besides I don't rate Lockwood that highly as he's been playing catch up with Landscheidt for many a year and still hasn't got to grips with UV output and their influences on pressure patterns.

 

Nobody has got to grips with the influence of UV variations on our weather, it's an active area of research.

Lockwood's area of expertise is the solar variability and its influence on climate and weather (with dozens of peer reviewed publications to his name), while Landscheidt didn't show much expertise when it came to climate, I very much doubt he'd would want to catch up to Landscheidt at all!

 

Landscheidts predictions weren't great

 

The next minimum in the 79-year cycle will occur in 1990. It will be more pronounced than the minimum in 1811.

 

It is to be expected that the climatic conditions in at least three decades after 1990 will be more severe than after 1811

 

conditions around 2030 and 2200 should approach those of the nadir of the Little Ice Age around 1670.

[Mountain Snow]

Smattering of snow above 800m on the Lakeland fells today. First proper frost followed by a beautiful sunny day, winter's on its way!

[UV-RAY]

Nobody has got to grips with the influence of UV variations on our weather, it's an active area of research.

Lockwood's area of expertise is the solar variability and its influence on climate and weather (with dozens of peer reviewed publications to his name), while Landscheidt didn't show much expertise when it came to climate, I very much doubt he'd would want to catch up to Landscheidt at all!

 

Landscheidts predictions weren't great

 

The next minimum in the 79-year cycle will occur in 1990. It will be more pronounced than the minimum in 1811.

 

It is to be expected that the climatic conditions in at least three decades after 1990 will be more severe than after 1811

 

conditions around 2030 and 2200 should approach those of the nadir of the Little Ice Age around 1670.

Poor choice of words BFTV with regards to no one has got a grip, as for the Landsheidt links yes some of his findings have been off the mark but apart from that he was light years ahead of anyone else in this field. It's a pity he's no longer with us as I'm sure the likes of Lockwood and others would have found common ground and shared their works. The last link hasn't happened yet and it's one I truly believe if solar output remains the same, i.e. on course for a grand minima, then another Maunder Minimum will occur.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[BornFromTheVoid]

Poor choice of words BFTV with regards to no one has got a grip, as for the Landsheidt links yes some of his findings have been off the mark but apart from that he was light years ahead of anyone else in this field. It's a pity he's no longer with us as I'm sure the likes of Lockwood and others would have found common ground and shared their works. The last link hasn't happened yet and it's one I truly believe if solar output remains the same, i.e. on course for a grand minima, then another Maunder Minimum will occur.

 

Why is that a poor choice of words?

 

I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree with regard to Landscheidt. I can only base my perception of him on his predictions, which didn't turn out so well as far as I can see, even the 1600s climate by 2030 is next to impossible. When it comes to the intricacies of solar dynamics, I doubt either are qualified enough to analyse decades of solar research say if someone was light years ahead of their time.

[Buriedundersnow]

Why is that a poor choice of words?

 

I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree with regard to Landscheidt. I can only base my perception of him on his predictions, which didn't turn out so well as far as I can see, even the 1600s climate by 2030 is next to impossible. When it comes to the intricacies of solar dynamics, I doubt either are qualified enough to analyse decades of solar research say if someone was light years ahead of their time.

 

impossible a light year is a unit of distance

[UV-RAY]

Why is that a poor choice of words?

 

I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree with regard to Landscheidt. I can only base my perception of him on his predictions, which didn't turn out so well as far as I can see, even the 1600s climate by 2030 is next to impossible. When it comes to the intricacies of solar dynamics, I doubt either are qualified enough to analyse decades of solar research say if someone was light years ahead of their time.

Lol, mine was a poor choice of words describing how no one understands  UV output and it's role on pressure patterns, nothing wrong with your's even though I disagree.

[summer blizzard]

While i agree that we will see a grand minimum which will have some effect i personally think the fact that because it's effects are gradual and we have seen anthropocentric increases in carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) that's it's effects will be somewhat muted. While i do expect the bulk of the 2010-2040 period to see only a slow increase or slight cooling the fact that the past 12 years have seen such inflationary pressure in some months (the three warmest October's in 6 years, the two warmest April's in 4 years) i think means that we should expect a bumpy ride and still not rule out sustained periods of warmth. I also worry about just how large the temperature increases will be post-2040.

[phil nw.]

Just a little reminder chaps this is the Winter thread not longer term Climate thoughts.

You can always continue over in that thread.

Cheers.

[UV-RAY]

While i agree that we will see a grand minimum which will have some effect i personally think the fact that because it's effects are gradual and we have seen anthropocentric increases in carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) that's it's effects will be somewhat muted. While i do expect the bulk of the 2010-2040 period to see only a slow increase or slight cooling the fact that the past 12 years have seen such inflationary pressure in some months (the three warmest October's in 6 years, the two warmest April's in 4 years) i think means that we should expect a bumpy ride and still not rule out sustained periods of warmth. I also worry about just how large the temperature increases will be post-2040.

Last post on this. If you check the weather records for the LIA you'll find hot summers, warm Autumns and mild winters, it wasn't all about cold winters and cool summers. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

impossible a light year is a unit of distance

 

A figure of speech!

 

Lol, mine was a poor choice of words describing how no one understands  UV output and it's role on pressure patterns, nothing wrong with your's even though I disagree.

 

Ah right! Anyway, plenty to watch over the coming years if solar activity remains low, keeping the chances of cold winters relatively high

[Gael_Force]

Last post on this. If you check the weather records for the LIA you'll find hot summers, warm Autumns and mild winters, it wasn't all about cold winters and cool summers. 

 

Indeed - something we have seen a fair bit of in recent seasons. If solar weakness is altering jet stream positioning to meridional extremes, you can be warm, cold or in wild weather where the air masses clash.

[draztik]

The latest charts from the CFS, averaged out over the last 4 runs, suggest colder than average conditions for the winter months

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The latest charts from the CFS, averaged out over the last 4 runs, suggest colder than average conditions for the winter months

 Gavin D likes this

 

shame CFS is unreiable mind you

[feb1991blizzard]

Flat.

[feb1991blizzard]

London Ecm ens trending a tiny bit lower although a painstaking process at the moment.

 

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Tiny bit lower from the GEFS, I still think any potent cold unlikely in Nov and even early December but starting trend a tiny bit lower each run, best to just see what runs each days bring, both Tropospheric and stratospherically and take it from there.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=230&y=35

 

[pdjakow]

UK cooler than normal at begining of november.

 

 

GFS analysis - CFSR reanalysis, 1981-2010 base period.

http://meteomodel.pl/BLOG/?page_id=6628

[chubbyfan]

so..end of winter predictions on oct 30th, and some obese robins..whats next ??

 

are the plump robins now too fat to fly..what could it mean ?.