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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

Our resident Robins are already looking pretty plump, perhaps this could be an early sign of a harsh Winter or impending cold! Posted Image They definitely weren't so big this time last year. Anyway, probably means nothing but you just never know... 

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Our resident Robins are already looking pretty plump, perhaps this could be an early sign of a harsh Winter or impending cold! Posted Image They definitely weren't so big this time last year. Anyway, probably means nothing but you just never know... 

Obese Robins, a sure sign of a impending 63 type winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

that chart is 2009 the one I was showing was 2010

 

here is the SST anomalies for the closest to todays date as I can find for the past few years 2008 onwards to this year for comparison on how we stand just now

 

Posted Imageanomnight_10_30_2008.gifPosted Imageanomnight_11_2_2009.gifPosted Imageanomnight_11_1_2010.gifPosted Imageanomnight_10_31_2011.gifPosted Imageanomnight_11_1_2012.gifPosted Imageanomnight_10_31_2013.gif

 

Good point, sorry, brain meltdown. I could get away with it though.....mid-December 2009 was "before the cold set in" in 2010 :D

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234pfe1t_cal

 

Environment Canada monthly update is out today...looking like a colder and drier scenario for my neck of the woods Dec 13 - Feb 14...Greenland isnt shown but the oranges are heading up there so could be high pressure in that region..well above norm temps at least

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

Yep blocking back with a vengeance on the CFS today (both updates so far have been pretty spectacular)Jan block.png

Thanks Crewe Cold - makes a nice change coming on here, following Andy Woodcock making his annual Winter Is Over forecast on the other channel
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Thanks Crewe Cold - makes a nice change coming on here, following Andy Woodcock making his annual Winter Is Over forecast on the other channel

 

He seems to misinterpret SST data. I don't think he realises the tripole is actually conducive to cold in the UK.

 

The Atlantic profile is very similar to that of 2009.

Edited by CreweCold
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Hi, first post after watching both the forums here and TWO for several years - just a quick question. Given today's understanding, and given how folk kind-of alluded to last years cold end to winter - ow early would we have now have picked up upon winters such as 47 and 63? Would folk have seen some writing on the wall by now (by the start of November )?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Hi, first post after watching both the forums here and TWO for several years - just a quick question. Given today's understanding, and given how folk kind-of alluded to last years cold end to winter - ow early would we have now have picked up upon winters such as 47 and 63? Would folk have seen some writing on the wall by now (by the start of November )?

 

The writing may be on the wall already Posted Image Maybe not as severe as 1947/1963 but Jan & Feb may really pack a punch this year in terms of wintry weather. Just a quick tease. I'm keeping thoughts to myself this year until Nov 30th but December may give us a couple of early tasters as to what is to come. I'm actually finding the first month of winter the hardest to fathom!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Christmas forecast video from gavsweathervids just a fun thing he does but interesting he thinks CFS did well with calling Christmas last year

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXed6fmMhYM

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sun or snow, nothing in between.
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK

The writing may be on the wall already Posted Image Maybe not as severe as 1947/1963 but Jan & Feb may really pack a punch this year in terms of wintry weather. Just a quick tease. I'm keeping thoughts to myself this year until Nov 30th but December may give us a couple of early tasters as to what is to come. I'm actually finding the first month of winter the hardest to fathom!

Woah woah woah! You can't just leave it at that!! At least give us non experienced folk a little hope....!
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

nice to see ECM showing ridging in the atlantic long may it continue

 

 

post-18233-0-25708500-1383333618_thumb.g

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Christmas forecast video from gavsweathervids just a fun thing he does but interesting he thinks CFS did well with calling Christmas last year

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXed6fmMhYM

Thats good as it gets for a white xmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

nice to see ECM showing ridging in the atlantic long may it continue

 

 

Posted ImageECH1-216.gif

 

Yes, and look how the vortex is being pulled about a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Thanks for the Reply Crewe Cold - but do still wonder if folk would have been getting edgy (or excited?) by now with those 2 winters approaching? Or, would they not yet gave raised much of an eyebrow yet - even with our current knowledges?

 

 

if they had our sattelites and the knowledge there is now in 62/63 they would have known through the month of November that there was a good chance of cold with a Canadian warming showing up on the strat models but like we still are today pin pointing where and when was going to get cold or snow would be hard to do unless the models were bringing it in from a long way out

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Daily Express now says Arctic Blast is on its way. It is the main headline tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

The writing may be on the wall already Posted Image Maybe not as severe as 1947/1963 but Jan & Feb may really pack a punch this year in terms of wintry weather.

 

Nobody and I mean nobody knows what the weather will be like in January and February.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Daily Express now says Arctic Blast is on its way. It is the main headline tomorrow.

 

ya joking, where the hell do they get that from? probably a bit of snow above 300m in Scotland

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Nobody and I mean nobody knows what the weather will be like in January and February.

Very true no-one knows for sure, however CreweCold always goes into depths with his thoughts and I'm sure there is good reason for why he thinks Jan/Feb will pack a punch. Not necessarily means it will happen.
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Daily Express just do it all the time. They are nothing but a joke. There is no way any significant cold air mass will penetrate south, especially at this set-up right now.

 

 

They are bad as David Cameron and Nick clegg kept lying to us.

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Very true no-one knows for sure, however CreweCold always goes into depths with his thoughts and I'm sure there is good reason for why he thinks Jan/Feb will pack a punch. Not necessarily means it will happen.

 

Oh absolutely. People who know of my posts will understand that I release a winter forecast on the site which is usually an in depth look at some of the factors which may collude to produce a certain seasonal eventuality. This year I'm aiming to leave it as late as possible as December is causing me some issues; hence I'm more confident of January and February. Also I'm a stickler for detail so I don't really want to rush out my thoughts- been rather busy with work lately and don't have as much 'free time' as I have in recent years.

 

However, as a very preliminary 'thought', with a fairly insignificant ENSO signal this year (it'll be a weak episode) I think more attention has to be paid to the Atlantic set up than the ENSO state and even the QBO phase. Of course, I take into account long range modelling also- even though some people may not necessarily agree with this.

 

I think we'll all know more as November progresses- keep an eye on Chiono's stratospheric analyses as these provide a very useful guide also. I believe stratospheric state/likely stratospheric state has to be factored in to any LRF (even though some don't believe in this yet).

 

Cheers!

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